aldie 22 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's not over till leesburg 04 sings. 1"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 A cursory glance shows the 0.1" contour into most of Northern VA including IAD/DCA..0.05" from HGR to BWI looking at better maps - 0.10" contour just the smallest hair south of DC/IAD, 0.05" contour is north of Baltimore city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Let it go Mitch if we were under the .5" contour, would you be resting easy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z RGEM looks like 0.10" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 if we were under the .5" contour, would you be resting easy? We never rest easy until it shuts off and we are shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Anybody have some numbers for EZF? On phone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 22z will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Currently for DC - I'd toss the Ukmet and I'm not even posting the SREF...looks like 1" for me 12zEuro - 0.07" 18z GFS - 0.09" 18z RGEM - 0.10" 12zUkmet - 0.15" 12zGGEM - 0.07" 18z NAM - 0.08" 18z 4k NAM - 0.11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 How much for leesburg....on phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm wagering on the UKMet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 if we were under the .5" contour, would you be resting easy? It's good to hope, but I think this one is baked. Now I'm not going to make ers pronouncements, but huge changes like we need this late in the game ..eh. I think our upside is 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Anybody have some numbers for EZF? On phone.... ~0.15 is a guess based on the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's good to hope, but I think this one is baked. Now I'm not going to make ers pronouncements, but huge changes like we need this late in the game ..eh. I think our upside is 2" Yeah, there is no good QPF until you get far way. But 2 inches would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah, there is no good QPF until you get far way. But 2 inches would be nice. 25:1 baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Interesting updated snow maps by WPC... http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif Most intriguing thing I've seen this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's good to hope, but I think this one is baked. Now I'm not going to make ers pronouncements, but huge changes like we need this late in the game ..eh. I think our upside is 2" agree....until I see 0Z lol seriously, that's probably fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Currently for DC - I'd toss the Ukmet and I'm not even posting the SREF...looks like 1" for me 12zEuro - 0.07" 18z GFS - 0.09" 18z RGEM - 0.10" 12zUkmet - 0.15" 12zGGEM - 0.07" 18z NAM - 0.08" 18z 4k NAM - 0.11" i haven't had a chance to look at maps, but it seems like we're dealing with a decent qpf producing storm, so maybe we don't need a big shift north to get into some decent stuff as opposed to a clipper type system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 BWI is <1" from average for the season if I can reach that considering where we were and the level of despair 1 month ago, I'll claim victory and be prepared to take my bat and glove and call it a season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ~0.15 is a guess based on the maps Thanks Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The ole Richmond dodge happening right now. Either too far north or too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The ole Richmond dodge happening right now. Either too far north or too far south. If this thing hits you are probably 100% of climo, which puts you at or slightly above parity compared to most of the region. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 If this thing hits you are probably 100% of climo, which puts you at or slightly above parity compared to most of the region. Good luck. RIC and DCA are about the same percent-wise away from average. I didn't get that comment either--- Richmond was nailed head-on in the President's Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Gfs is .13 at jyo but no rates but cold...im liking my inch call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hmmm... 18 of the 20 GEFS members have DCA above 0.1" QPF... 2 members are at or above 0.25" QPF... Grasping a bit, I know, but it looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hmmm... 18 of the 20 GEFS members have DCA above 0.1" QPF... 2 members are at or above 0.25" QPF... Grasping a bit, I know, but it looks nice with 6 more GFS runs thru 6Z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The comment was based upon the past week demonstrating something that does happen quite often to Richmond. The Saturday storm was a good one just one hour west and north of here. No accumulation in Richmond at all. Thursday looks to be bigger south and east of here, while I don't think it will be a 12.26.2004 style shutout, it still looks to be more of an event one hour south and east. Looking back over past decade there are numerous instances of Richmond kind of falling into a gap between systems that produce from the mountains up though NOVa (or just in NOVa) and systems that produce through the far south side into Hampton Roads. Yes. Richmond is at about 7.4 inches for the year now, but if you look back you'll see empirically that few reporting stations in the Mid-Atlantic, and East Coast as a whole, have achieved their yearly average as rarely as Richmond recently. Area has been in a snow drought. Just noting that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are 60:1 ratios within the realm of possibility, or should I just get that out of my head right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Since the SREFs decided to double down at 15z, I wonder if they will triple dog dare the other models tonight with their 21z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are 60:1 ratios within the realm of possibility, or should I just get that out of my head right now? ponder....it's the word of the day it means to wonder, but with a college education Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SREFS just folded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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