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March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II


mitchnick

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Cold has proved resilient since late DEC so I would expect we have accumulating snow next week, which coincidentally supports my post yesterday or the day before when I said that I believe we'll see at least one for moderate event (4"+), so imagine that.  Lol

After next week, let it get warm if it wants, I don't care at that point. But if it doesn't, I'm OK with that too!   :)

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  On 2/27/2015 at 9:53 PM, Bob Chill said:

No doubt. We've seen many cold chasing precip looks at medium to long leads. I'm not sure I remember any working out. Maybe that rain to snow deal last year was one. I'm a little foggy on how it played out though. Prob not apples to apples. Matt would know.

I'd imagine we get rain to snow in some fashion behind a front maybe once a year or two but anything big is unusual. Then again we've gotten decent snow in a lot of atypical ways since last winter. Nonetheless what the models show now is fairly meaningless.
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  On 2/27/2015 at 10:35 PM, Warrior Bigfoot said:

I can't see 3-hour panels on WxBell. But you're right, it looks like .5", 1" max. Decent icing at 54.

Yeah, the period where we get the bulk of precip (hr 54-57), 850mb temps are above freezing. Could be looking at a token Freezing Rain Advisory
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  On 2/27/2015 at 10:34 PM, Ian said:

I'd imagine we get rain to snow in some fashion behind a front maybe once a year or two but anything big is unusual. Then again we've gotten decent snow in a lot of atypical ways since last winter. Nonetheless what the models show now is fairly meaningless.

It's an interesting h5 look at least. I could see something riding the boundary after the column gets right but it's always tuff time buying into this kind of scenario beyond 3 days. Too much has to go right. We simply cannot know right now. lol

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  On 2/27/2015 at 10:41 PM, WestminsterDeathband said:

Matt, did you get that map at that address? I'm on the phone, so maybe that's why I can't find it. Can you post the weather channel map from 3/8/95, around noon? I don't know if you can but would like to see it.

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  On 2/27/2015 at 10:52 PM, Bob Chill said:

It's an interesting h5 look at least. I could see something riding the boundary after the column gets right but it's always tuff time buying into this kind of scenario beyond 3 days. Too much has to go right. We simply cannot know right now. lol

Yes, we just can't know yet. 

 

If nothing else it's still fairly up in the air what happens with the original low. The seasonal thing argues flatter I suppose.. but how that impacts the rest (if it's even real).. got me. Ops 'agreeing' means very little in this situation.

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  On 2/27/2015 at 11:17 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Matt, did you get that map at that address? I'm on the phone, so maybe that's why I can't find it. Can you post the weather channel map from 3/8/95, around noon? I don't know if you can but would like to see it.

From here (NJ focused doesn't have all our events): http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

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  On 2/27/2015 at 11:58 PM, Ian said:

Yes, we just can't know yet.

If nothing else it's still fairly up in the air what happens with the original low. The seasonal thing argues flatter I suppose.. but how that impacts the rest (if it's even real).. got me. Ops 'agreeing' means very little in this situation.

I expect it to go poof tbh. Or end up being some sort of mangled flakes before the clouds clear out and winds kick up.

But since there is absolutely nothing else to track...we'll all watch it morph into something other than what the gfs just showed.

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