Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 JMA is pretty wet.. .3ish to EZF or so and .15" into PA. #crapmodeltime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Herpderp .3ish EZF to .1ish PA border thru 12z as noted above but prob some after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:59 PM, cae said: High-res RGEM, not surprisingly, is wetter than the RGEM. Thats like 3 inches for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 15z SREFs double down... wow 0.5 QPF line moved SE a tad (along a line from EZF into S MD is where it is now, was in DC at 09z)... DCA prob .4 or so this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 15z SREF: This is a 6hr total, not total for the entire storm. This is about mid through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The 15 SREF mean did move the 0.25" and 0.5" lines south a little, but DC Metro is well within the 0.25-0.5" range. Big hit for southeast Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 7:17 PM, high risk said: The 15 SREF mean did move the 0.25" and 0.5" lines south a little, but DC Metro is well within the 0.25-0.5" range. Big hit for southeast Virginia. How much qpf for SEVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 7:18 PM, DCAlexandria said: How much qpf for SEVA? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&cycle=20150224%2015%20UTC¶m=precip_p24&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 you should clarify that this is a 6-hr total On 2/24/2015 at 7:16 PM, snowdude said: 15z SREF: SREF3.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Did the low move north? Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 7:16 PM, snowdude said: 15z SREF: SREF3.jpg Extend that to the 24-h ending 00Z Friday, and both the 0.25" and 0.50" lines are back farther west/north than what's in this plot (which ends at 15Z Thu.). As has been noted, there is a bit of a shift south and east, but it doesn't look as dramatic as the above graphic. ETA: I see it's been corrected already, noting it's a 6-h total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm looking forward to ers-wxman's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's worth noting in the 15z SREF that only 4 of 21 members have less than 0.1" liquid for DC. But they're all NMM members, which are initialized off of the GFS. And of the 3 "wet" NMM members, they're all under 0.2". So if the GFS is right, the overall wet SREF solution *may* be meaningless. That said, all of the ARW and NMB members (initialized off of the RAP and NAM, respectively) are at least 0.25" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 7:29 PM, high risk said: It's worth noting in the 15z SREF that only 4 of 21 members have less than 0.1" liquid for DC. But they're all NMM members, which are initialized off of the GFS. And of the 3 "wet" NMM members, they're all under 0.2". So if the GFS is right, the overall wet SREF solution *may* be meaningless. That said, all of the ARW and NMB members (initialized off of the RAP and NAM, respectively) are at least 0.25" for DC. Thanks for explaining that. Wonder if the NAM will lean more towards the SREFs this upcoming 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 6:02 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: quick glance looks like 0.05" for DC and less north of there looking at higher res maps, the 0.05" contour is just south of the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I would think so, but based on the 9z SREF, I expected the 12z NAM to be north, and that didn't really happen. That said, the NAM nest is not chopping off the northwest corner of the precip shield like the parent NAM is; the 12z NAM solution probably should have been wetter than it was. The simulated reflectivity product looked much better than the QPF did. On 2/24/2015 at 7:34 PM, yoda said: Thanks for explaining that. Wonder if the NAM will lean more towards the SREFs this upcoming 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 1/28-29/14 all the models shifted 24 hours out - the 1/28 0z runs, and then kind of held there...before that there were runs where the precip shield completely missed DC...I only got 1", but it was still snow. This storm, the models already have the precip shield 100+ miles NW of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro ens mean brought .1" north to about just north of DC running e/w.. 0.05" about 20 mil north of MD/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 7:58 PM, Ian said: Euro ens mean brought .1" north to about DC running e/w.. 0.5" about 20 mil north of MD/PA border. 0.5 would be nice, but i'll assume .05. sounds like good trends today. 80sstylesnowtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 7:48 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: 1/28-29/14 all the models shifted 24 hours out - the 1/28 0z runs, and then kind of held there...before that there were runs where the precip shield completely missed DC...I only got 1", but it was still snow. This storm, the models already have the precip shield 100+ miles NW of that one. good news for us weenies I noticed as well that the 12Z Ukie weakened the n/s kicker from its 0Z run giving the southern stream storm some more "breathing room" if the other models key on that, we'll see them trend better I suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 7:58 PM, Ian said: Euro ens mean brought .1" north to about just north of DC running e/w.. 0.05" about 20 mil north of MD/PA border. I will take my 1/2" and be happy. I seriously think we can get 2 or 3" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 8:00 PM, 87storms said: 0.5 would be nice, but i'll assume .05. sounds like good trends today. 80sstylesnowtown. yeah corrected .. north edge didn't move much but everythign else shifted north maybe 25-50 or so? .25" closing in on EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 not real excited withe 18Z NAM thru 33 hrs....hopefully the western flank expands EDIT: hair slower too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Snowing at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 8:23 PM, yoda said: Snowing at 39 sim/rad looks a little better at 36 hrs. vs. 42 hrs on 12Z fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like 1-2 south of DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 precip field broader than 12z, but still unexciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 that n/s kicker is certainly playing havoc on the development, if not the models like I said earlier, we didn't have that kind of feature in the past 2 weeks so this is diff in that regard, diff for the worse it seems so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 8:28 PM, mitchnick said: that n/s kicker is certainly playing havoc on the development, if not the models like I said earlier, we didn't have that kind of feature in the past 2 weeks so this is diff in that regard, diff for the worse it seems so far The kicker needs to slow down some for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 nice...got wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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