cae Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 00z RGEM ensemble is more modest than the 09z SREF, but it's still coming into range. 12z RGEM ensemble should be out around 1:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 My bar is set at snowtv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:09 PM, Ian said: Hey man. I dunno could be short range model shenanigans. Why are the globals not picking it up? oh if I had to bet anything I cared about on it I would guess it is just the sref and nam being goofy. But what I'm curious to see is how the individual srefs that give us a big snow get it done. Just to see what trend would be good on the 12z globals. They obviously are phasing the northern stream vort to have 20" solutions. But do they speed the vort up, slow down the stj, or are they popping a second low Friday like some globals hinted at a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM looks pretty similar to 06z through 36. Much further north with the northern extent of the precip shield than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:17 PM, MN Transplant said: NAM looks pretty similar to 06z through 36. Much further north with the northern extent of the precip shield than the euro. Looks like it... SLP is near TAL in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:17 PM, MN Transplant said: NAM looks pretty similar to 06z through 36. Much further north with the northern extent of the precip shield than the euro. Yes it is. Seeing the timing really hasn't changed much, the energy must be speeding up and catching to turn and phase a bit. Not buying the giant amounts, but looks like many gonna see snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 1:46 PM, leesburg 04 said: Shhhhh.....I'm working my asshat mojo seems to be working! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 39 in S GA... the SLP will probably come into the Atlantic up near NC I would surmise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 heights are a little higher at 36 hrs. BUT notice as well how the 0-850 line is much further inland over NC/VA than 6Z run that suggests to me it will be west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Srefs don't really phase the northern stream vort they just eject the stj system more intact and let it amp more. The northern stream vort still digs in Friday but by then everything is well ots. The flowis prigressive so that's working against it but there is enough room to let it come north if the stj does come out stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 nah, NAM's gunna go the wrong way it now seems rats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Going to be very light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Big hit for Hampton/Va Beach/Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:28 PM, mitchnick said: nah, NAM's gunna go the wrong way it now seems rats I said this because precip shield looks more compact maybe it will prove me wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Our Richmond-area friends are now in the odd position of rooting for a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 still, not a bad spot at 45-48 hours out sim/radar at 42 and 48 we've seen before recently within 2 days of possible storms if memory serves http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=048&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ugh i hate seeing places south get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:34 PM, Ian said: ugh i hate seeing places south get crushed. I don't. I'm happy for them. NC-VA tidewater areas are much more frustrating than our area. Let em have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well, it was more the 4km NAM that was bringing the goods to us on its 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:34 PM, Ian said: ugh i hate seeing places south get crushed. if that was us right now with 45 hrs+/- to go, would you feel at all comfortable? I sure as he!! wouldn't because I know it would be drifting north vort isn't bad either http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:35 PM, Bob Chill said: I don't. I'm happy for them. NC-VA tidewater areas are much more frustrating than our area. Let em have it. That's pretty lame. Their climo sucks.. we should SNE this by rule of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:36 PM, mitchnick said: if that was us right now with 45 hrs+/- to go, would you feel at all comfortable? I sure as he!! wouldn't because I know it would be drifting north vort isn't bad either http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model yeah I've liked the vort it's big and beefy if a bit strung out and climbs late.. would have thought it would shift things more in our favor at this point but hard to hug the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:36 PM, Ian said: That's pretty lame. Their climo sucks.. we should SNE this by rule of something. lol- don't mistake my happiness for rooting. You know what I'm rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:38 PM, Ian said: yeah I've liked the vort it's big and beefy if a bit strung out and climbs late.. would have thought it would shift things more in our favor at this point but hard to hug the SREF. I still think anything is possible at this point, so I ain't pulling the plug by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:36 PM, mitchnick said: if that was us right now with 45 hrs+/- to go, would you feel at all comfortable? I sure as he!! wouldn't because I know it would be drifting north vort isn't bad either http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model usually where the confluence is marks the northward extent of where precip could get. That's not until central pa. Our issue is if the flow is too progressive to let this amplify enough to max out its ccb qpf. But the vort passage is nearly perfect actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:36 PM, mitchnick said: if that was us right now with 45 hrs+/- to go, would you feel at all comfortable? I sure as he!! wouldn't because I know it would be drifting north vort isn't bad either http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model You would think, like wow, with that look. Eh. How many times can we be Cinderella? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 this sucks. Raleigh gets a foot on the NAM. We suck at being SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 this is what we have been waiting for since jan 25,2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 42 on the HI-RES NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 High res pushed the precip south a tad. 1-2 for Nova-BWI south and east. 3"+ for EZF-S MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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