mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not IF it comes north, but how far and how much falls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I want a remarkable trend....something like Jan 30, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 We need more, but we're racing against time now. Hopefully March is a winter month again. I think that the first 10 days of March are looking pretty good in terms of chances for snow (knock on wood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Southeast special. Man....central can't catch a break. If we could only get that seasonal north trend........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 the RGEM makes the kicker pretty strong at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 00z RGEM at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 the RGEM makes the kicker pretty strong at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 00z RGEM at 48 00zRGEMat48hrsQPF2-24-15.gif I like your map better because it makes it look like it's coming north lol that kicker, like I said in my post (5 seconds or less after yours!) is strong....can it pull it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS still does not want to play ball... on to the GGEM/UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 00z RGEM at 48 00zRGEMat48hrsQPF2-24-15.gif forget the GFS....it's acting like the GFS of old if you compare the RGEM to the NAM at 48 hrs, NAM has a 1008 slp south of the central panhandle of FLA while the RGEM has it further west, south of the western tip of the FLA panhandle and it's down to 1005 make that adjustment to the NAM and it would be a bigger qpf maker for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS might still suck with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Idk Mitch, hedging with short range models late in their runs when globals say something different early in their runs isn't something we usually do. Gfs may be too far south but the euro didn't look good either. Ukie scraped us at best and the ggem is the last global model I would hug. It's pretty bleak for snow prospects here. Maybe Wes can hopefully score an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Idk Mitch, hedging with short range models late in their runs when globals say something different early in their runs isn't something we usually do. Gfs may be too far south but the euro didn't look good either. Ukie scraped us at best and the ggem is the last global model I would hug. It's pretty bleak for snow prospects here. Maybe Wes can hopefully score an inch. hey, it's the end of the season that has been saved just hoping to put it over the edge...plus, I'm not quite ready to break the winter habit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ok, just got back in town today. Heard I missed some flurries on Saturday. Sigh. What are we tracking now again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 hey, it's the end of the season that has been saved just hoping to put it over the edge...plus, I'm not quite ready to break the winter habit lol I'm with ya on that. Not time to shut the door from what I'm seeing. This specific threat is on life support at best. Close to good but the sand through the hour glass has mostly drained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ok, just got back in town today. Heard I missed some flurries on Saturday. Sigh. What are we tracking now again? hey boss, we need you to unpinn the old Mid-Feb to March thread and pinn this one thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 00z UKIE at 60 has 998 L near OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 00z UKIE at 60 has 998 L near OBX maps, maps......we need maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 maps, maps......we need maps! 60 -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 Apparently, I have run out of attachment space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ukie would be good for a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 60 -- http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 Apparently, I have run out of attachment space thx oh so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 FWIW, GGEM is a miss So tonight we have NAM/4k NAM/UKIE as the models bringing measurable QPF up to our area... while GFS/GGEM say no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 FWIW, GGEM is a miss So tonight we have NAM/4k NAM/UKIE as the models bringing measurable QPF up to our area... while GFS/GGEM say no like I said earlier tonight, I'll give it until 12Z tomorrow before getting out the fork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 UKIE not close! Haha. Where's the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 like I said earlier tonight, I'll give it until 12Z tomorrow before getting out the forkBetter warm it up in the microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 UKMet looks good.....for Norfolk. About 5". I guess Richmond would get a few. NAM buried the Tidewater. Seems like at the very least they get fringed with a couple. Oh well, will be nice for them to get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This one has some room to come north. All depends how strong the energy over the southwest holds together and how it interacts with the northern stream jet. RGEM did pretty good with the last system and its looking more juiced with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Minimum potential is 0 but max potential or worst case scenario still has a few inches in there. Still some hope as this does take into account 57 different solutions. Still a 10% or so chance http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 No dice with tonight's Euro run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 No dice with tonight's Euro run... Not even a tick further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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