February 28th-March 2nd possibly significant overrunning event/winter storm

[Hoosier]

0z GGEM a bit drier overall, but placement remains about the same compared to its 12z run. About 2-3" for the LAF...heaviest for central IN is south of Indy.

 

 

UKMET looks good for us.  Discard that model at your own risk this winter

[Chicago WX]

UKMET looks good for us.  Discard that model at your own risk this winter

 

lol, it has had a hot hand at times for sure.

 

It was way too wet for this system though, earlier. Coming back down to earth now. Looks like about 0.40" for us now.

 

3-5", lock it up.

[Hoosier]

lol, it has had a hot hand at times for sure.

 

It was way too wet for this system though, earlier. Coming back down to earth now. Looks like about 0.40" for us now.

 

3-5", lock it up.

 

 

Looks a bit higher than that

 

 

[Thundersnow12]

ORD looks good for a DAB.

Dry streak of shifts continues

[dmc76]

Around an inch here and maybe up to 2" Detroit south. #burp

[huronicane]

Dry streak of shifts continues

 

It's the curse of TSnow

[mjwise]

Around an inch here and maybe up to 2" Detroit south. #burp

 

Yep, SREF plume mean's down to about 2" now for DTW from 4-6" yesterday. RGEM says DAB.

[snowstormcanuck]

What a cloosterfook this turned into north of the OV.

[Chicago WX]

What a cloosterfook this turned into north of the OV.

 

Everything is a cloosterfook on models these days.

 

The NAMs and SREF finally woke up and joined the other models in reducing totals for LAF. I'll stick with my 3-5" call, but more confident about the 3" than the 5".  

[snowstormcanuck]

Everything is a cloosterfook on models these days.

 

The NAMs and SREF finally woke up and joined the other models in reducing totals for LAF. I'll stick with my 3-5" call, but more confident about the 3" than the 5".  

 

Should still be a nice snow to frolic in, push around with the shovel, etc. That stuff is huge now that we're staring down the barrel of March.

 

I'll count the number of flakes up here for you.

[KokomoWX]

Everything is a cloosterfook on models these days.

The NAMs and SREF finally woke up and joined the other models in reducing totals for LAF. I'll stick with my 3-5" call, but more confident about the 3" than the 5".

5.3 here with a cluster from 3.5 to 8 inches. Some lollipops about 9 too.

[Chicago WX]

Should still be a nice snow to frolic in, push around with the shovel, etc. That stuff is huge now that we're staring down the barrel of March.

 

I'll count the number of flakes up here for you.

 

Yep, a nice snow to be sure. I'll gladly take it.

 

12z GFS actually bumped QPF up a bit for here and IND, MIE, OKK, etc...so that's good. Again, fits perfectly into the 3-5" range for here...higher totals south and east.

[Hoosier]

Think I will shave an inch off my earlier range and go with 4-6"

[Northern_IN_Wx]

No real changes from what I was thinking a couple days ago...1-3 imby...3-5 LAF, FWA, Lima OH.

[Chicago WX]

Think I will shave an inch off my earlier range and go with 4-6"

 

Good idea. 

 

12z GGEM and RGEM finally gave us a little more love, so a decent consensus now.

[Hoosier]

Good idea. 

 

12z GGEM and RGEM finally gave us a little more love, so a decent consensus now.

 

 

12z Euro says maybe I should've stuck with the original call. 

[stormtrackertf]

Around an inch here and maybe up to 2" Detroit south. #burp

 

 

Yep, SREF plume mean's down to about 2" now for DTW from 4-6" yesterday. RGEM says DAB.

I'm going to be upset if after all of this extreme cold, we get whiffed to the south with this storm and then get rained on from the 3rd-4th system.

[Central Illinois]

12z Euro says maybe I should've stuck with the original call. 

yep looks like a good 5-8" from STL to LAF to Mansfield OH

[Baum]

I'm going to be upset if after all of this extreme cold, we get whiffed to the south with this storm and then get rained on from the 3rd-4th system.

Prepare.

[BadgerStateWX]

Poor msp. Maybe goofus will find a nut for them.

[wisconsinwx]

Poor msp. Maybe goofus will find a nut for them.

 

Is that their state university's new mascot?

[Hoosier]

18z RAP has .4-.5 precip down here by 12z Sunday and there would be more after that.

[Hoosier]

18z NAM with a noticeable bump in qpf here.

[cyclone77]

18z NAM with a noticeable bump in qpf here.

 

Looking good down there.  I'm thinking 5-6" for LAF.  Nothing crazy but a respectable storm.  

[Whitelakeroy]

I'm going to be upset if after all of this extreme cold, we get whiffed to the south with this storm and then get rained on from the 3rd-4th system.

Sorry to say but while February's have been excellent in recent years for SE MI ... March has not been all that exciting here so don't hold your breathe.

[Hoosier]

Looking good down there.  I'm thinking 5-6" for LAF.  Nothing crazy but a respectable storm.  

 

 

Yeah I'm kinda regretting nudging things down earlier (and if anything, things seem to be overperforming upstream) but it's basically semantics...not much of a difference between 4-6" and 5-7".

[dilly84]

Yeah I'm kinda regretting nudging things down earlier (and if anything, things seem to be overperforming upstream) but it's basically semantics...not much of a difference between 4-6" and 5-7".

Yea when I make my maps my goal is within 1" either way. If I say 4-6 and we get 3 or 7 then I can live with it. It's bad when you go 2-3 and get 6-8 though lol

[cyclone77]

Some light snow has begun here.  Not expecting anything more than a light dusting this eve.

[Hoosier]

We are underway.

[IMADreamer]

Easily two new inches on the ground here already.