February 28th-March 2nd possibly significant overrunning event/winter storm

[mjwise]

12Z GFS shifted a bit south. 12Z OP NAM holding steady to southerly trek through IN/OH. 12Z RGEM both well south of NAM even - snow as far south as Cincinnati.

[Chicago WX]

Looks like the 12z Ukie moved a bit south. Probably a bit drier too, but that's not a surprise considering it's been the wettest model all along.

 

EDIT: still a solid band of 0.40-0.80" for a good chunk of MO, IL, IN, and OH.

 

[Hoosier]

  On 2/27/2015 at 4:52 PM, Chicago WX said:

Looks like the 12z Ukie moved a bit south. Probably a bit drier too, but that's not a surprise considering it's been the wettest model all along.

 

EDIT: still a solid band of 0.40-0.80" for a good chunk of MO, IL, IN, and OH.

 

ukie 72.gif

 

All in all I like where we are at this point.  Possible that the heaviest precip goes south but those areas are also more likely to flirt with thermal issues eventually. 

[michsnowfreak]

For here the gfs and gem have been consistent run after run. The problem is gfs is 3-5" and gem is a dusting. Ie: no model consistency yet.

[Hoosier]

I don't know what's up with the GEM...it's been consistent but a consistent outlier.

[Stebo]

  On 2/27/2015 at 5:40 PM, Hoosier said:

I don't know what's up with the GEM...it's been consistent but a consistent outlier.

Consistently wrong would be my guess, the factors leading to this snowfall are southern stream pieces both the ejection out west and the rising heights of the southeast ridge which would both be on the far end of the GEM's resolution.

[Chicago Storm]

12z ECMWF is south and weaker, and a step closer to the GGEM.

[mjwise]

  On 2/27/2015 at 6:06 PM, Stebo said:

Consistently wrong would be my guess, the factors leading to this snowfall are southern stream pieces both the ejection out west and the rising heights of the southeast ridge which would both be on the far end of the GEM's resolution.

I thought GGEM was a global - i.e. it was at least modeling the northern hemisphere? Or is it more NAM-like and they just call it a global model?

[Hoosier]

Euro is probably still 5-6" here.

[Hoosier]

  On 2/27/2015 at 1:52 PM, Chicago WX said:

Usually when you say something like this, it ends badly for us. So thanks.

 

One caution flag is the SREF. Every run as we get closer, gets warmer (more rain getting involved). 

 

9z run with another tick warm...IND only gets 1.9" snow on 0.62" QPF...LAF 3.4" on 0.64" QPF...FWA 4.7" on 0.70" QPF

 

Either it's nuts...or pulling the coup.

 

 

Ratios look better for us on the 15z SREF, but probably still a bit too low (it's like 9:1).  Precip about the same as the last run.

[Chicago WX]

  On 2/27/2015 at 7:46 PM, Hoosier said:

Ratios look better for us on the 15z SREF, but probably still a bit too low (it's like 9:1).  Precip about the same as the last run.

 

lol, I'd say. 15z run: 5.7" on 0.63" >>> 9z run: 3.4" on 0.64"

[Hoosier]

  On 2/27/2015 at 7:50 PM, Chicago WX said:

lol, I'd say. 15z run: 5.7" on 0.63" >>> 9z run: 3.4" on 0.64"

 

 

Will be interesting to see what IND does.  I don't think we're going to be able to hit the criteria of 6" in 12 hours so I'm thinking it will be an advisory, but maybe a high end one.

[Chicago WX]

  On 2/27/2015 at 7:55 PM, Hoosier said:

Will be interesting to see what IND does.  I don't think we're going to be able to hit the criteria of 6" in 12 hours so I'm thinking it will be an advisory, but maybe a high end one.

 

I think a WWA will suffice. Still like the call from earlier right now, 3-6".

[Hoosier]

  On 2/27/2015 at 7:58 PM, Chicago WX said:

I think a WWA will suffice. Still like the call from earlier right now, 3-6".

 

 

I like either side of 6" right now...let's say 5-7"

[Hoosier]

  On 2/27/2015 at 8:05 PM, Angrysummons said:

Sun and marginal temps are probably going to parry accums.

 

 

I could see that being an issue.  I think the southern end of the modeled band is going to be most susceptible...wouldn't want to be there.

[michsnowfreak]

You know its been super cold when it takes until the end of February for the "sun angle screwing accums" line shows up. Usually its mid January

[nwohweather]

Whoa WSW up for CLE with 6-10"

[mjwise]

  On 2/27/2015 at 9:32 PM, nwohweather said:

Whoa WSW up for CLE with 6-10"

 

Probably the death knell for the storm given their historical performance. Their forecast discussion is devoid of reasoning for the intensity headline. Ain't in the GFS or NAM for sure.

[Hoosier]

18z RGEM seems like it's a bit north of the 12z GGEM.  Still on the southern end of guidance though.

[Chambana]

Local met Derick Fabert going with a general 3-6" for the area, have to agree. Said some counties south of here could deal with some minor icing, knocking down snowfall totals.

[Powerball]

Final call: 1-4" grinder.

[cyclone77]

Models have trended lighter and lighter for north IL the past 2-3 days.  Not really expecting much out of this one up this way.  

[Chicago WX]

0z NAM clown map has a Mottster, or King Lizard or WTF he's calling himself these days, jackpot.

 

[mjwise]

0Z GFS more or less in line with the NAM now as far as affected corridor, just drier/slower/further south with the edge of the snow.

[Chicago WX]

Yep. 0z GFS colder and in turn snowier for those on the southern edges (and less snow for the northern areas) versus the 12z run. No sexy lolli's like the NAM...but a general swath of 3-5" for quite a few in MO, IL, IN, and OH.

 

[Hoosier]

  On 2/28/2015 at 3:10 AM, Chicago WX said:

0z NAM clown map has a Mottster, or King Lizard or WTF he's calling himself these days, jackpot.

 

nam sn.png

 

 

SREF plumes looking good for us...almost all in the 4-8" range with many of those 6+

 

I think Indy is about as far south as I'd want to be for this one.  Too risky with southward extent.

[OHweather]

Just taking a cursory glance here...the 0z NAM and GFS are both noticeably farther west with the PV near Hudson Bay on Sunday than the 12z runs, and hence both have the incoming shortwave over the Plains a little slower to dive down. This could allow for more energy to eject out of the southwest allowing for somewhat higher QPF, with that QPF also getting a little farther north. Interesting.

[Chicago WX]

0z RGEM remains south. Barely gets 0.30" here. Tossing the NAM, considering the agreement amongst the RGEM, GFS, and GGEM. Mixing them all up, thinking 3-5" might be a good call for LAF right now...barring any further shifts/cut-backs.

 

 

[Chicago Storm]

ORD looks good for a DAB.

[Chicago WX]

0z GGEM a bit drier overall, but placement remains about the same compared to its 12z run. About 2-3" for the LAF...heaviest for central IN is south of Indy.