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February 28th-March 2nd possibly significant overrunning event/winter storm

Thundersnow12

By Thundersnow12,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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mjwise

mjwise

Posted
Posted

12z GFS a little south and a bit drier versus the 0z run.

 

Seems like in general, models have been fairly consistent on QPF totals somewhere in the 0.30-0.60" range for central IN. Still a ways to go of course...

 

12z is a few hours slower too.

 

Ever since GHD II, south/suppressed has been the way to go. Initial conditions are hard for the models to digest - it's just been a sustained deep trough that's pretty far away from climo. This initial wave is going to be too weak to really change the pattern. I have a flight Sun. AM out of DTW too, so I'm all for suppression on this one (sorry guys). Rooting for the I-70 corridor here.

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aurora

aurora

Posted
Posted

12z is a few hours slower too.

 

Ever since GHD II, south/suppressed has been the way to go. Initial conditions are hard for the models to digest - it's just been a sustained deep trough that's pretty far away from climo. This initial wave is going to be too weak to really change the pattern. I have a flight Sun. AM out of DTW too, so I'm all for suppression on this one (sorry guys). Rooting for the I-70 corridor here.

 

Honestly, I'm hoping this one goes south as well. That should leave Michigan in a better position for the midweek storm, which I personally feel has more potential.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

12z GFS a little south and a bit drier versus the 0z run.

 

Seems like in general, models have been fairly consistent on QPF totals somewhere in the 0.30-0.60" range for central IN. Still a ways to go of course...

 

 

3-6" seems like a fairly reasonable early expectation, with some upside potential.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

15z SREF plumes aren't that impressive for LAF...I mean, some good ones mixed in but a number of relative clunkers.  The mean has 3.4" of snow on .49" precip, which is a ratio of about 7:1.  Surface temps could become borderline during the day on Sunday but an event average ratio of 7:1?  I don't think so... barring a fairly substantial north shift. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

IND thinking 5-7" far north

 

 


HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY   NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ALL   MODELS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT   THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR   REGION.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE ALL SNOW OVER NORTHERN   SECTIONS...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY START OUT AS SNOW AND THEN   CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY.  THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN   DURING THIS CHANGE OVER.   WENT CLOSE TO HPC SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH   INDICATED 5 TO 7 INCHES FAR NORTH TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO SOUTH.  THE NAM INDICATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY   EVENING...WHILE THE GFS WAS ALMOST 12 HOURS LATER IN ENDING   PRECIPITATION.  WENT WITH A BLEND WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MOST   AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.  
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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

15z SREF plumes aren't that impressive for LAF...I mean, some good ones mixed in but a number of relative clunkers.  The mean has 3.4" of snow on .49" precip, which is a ratio of about 7:1.  Surface temps could become borderline during the day on Sunday but an event average ratio of 7:1?  I don't think so... barring a fairly substantial north shift. 

 

IWX thinking around climo 13:1 ratios for our area.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Looking like the KC to LAF to Cleveland line is pretty much locked in for the best snows with this wave.  Looks like a nice 4-6"+ type event for you guys.  For those of us to the north in northern IL/eastern IA it's looking like a few fluffy inches.  

 

 

The model stability with this thing is sort of eerie...very little shifting, at least compared to what we've seen before this winter.  Perhaps because this setup is more straightforward and not really dependent on phasing.  Almost feels like we're getting lulled to sleep with a last minute curveball forthcoming.  :D

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

The model stability with this thing is sort of eerie...very little shifting, at least compared to what we've seen before this winter.  Perhaps because this setup is more straightforward and not really dependent on phasing.  Almost feels like we're getting lulled to sleep with a last minute curveball forthcoming.  :D

 

Usually when you say something like this, it ends badly for us. So thanks. ;)

 

One caution flag is the SREF. Every run as we get closer, gets warmer (more rain getting involved). 

 

9z run with another tick warm...IND only gets 1.9" snow on 0.62" QPF...LAF 3.4" on 0.64" QPF...FWA 4.7" on 0.70" QPF

 

Either it's nuts...or pulling the coup.

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