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February 28th-March 2nd possibly significant overrunning event/winter storm

Thundersnow12

By Thundersnow12,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Pat Murphy at IWX is thinking that suppression is the way to go:

 

BOTH BROAD/CONTD
SUPPRESSED HGHTS ACRS ERN TWO THIRDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS REACH INTO DEEP SOUTH THROUGH FRI...COULD ONLY
ANTICIPATE A SUPPRESSED SRLY STORM TRACK WITH RATHER DEEP COLD
AIRMASS TO REMAIN FIRMLY ROOTED FOR PRIMARILY FROZEN PTYPE. STILL
WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY HESITANT TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES...WITH
SLIGHT TREND TOWARD HIR LKLY POPS FOR SN AND GIVE A LESSER CHC
NOD FOR LIQUID MIX IN SRN CWA/PRIOR MIXED AREA...BUT RELEGATED TO
A LESSER TEMPORAL PD/SUN AFTN FOR NOW UNTIL TREND BECOMES
CLEARER.

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dan123

dan123

Posted
Posted

Each successive run of the models seems to hold more and more energy back in the desert SW. Looks like the real player may be the storm around D7. At this rate, the D5 system may end up being a purely northern stream POS fropa.

Or it could be a nice 2-4" refresher.
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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Each successive run of the models seems to hold more and more energy back in the desert SW. Looks like the real player may be the storm around D7. At this rate, the D5 system may end up being a purely northern stream POS fropa.

 

I agree that we are starting to see a trend for a weaker, strung out forerunner, followed by something potentially much more substantial mid next week.  

 

As far as I'm concerned you guys to the north and west are absolutely welcome to it!     A nice soaking ground thawing rain is now on the top of my wish list.     

 

of course JB this morning thinks next weeks cold shot could be just as brutal if not worse than this one :axe: ....except centered further west.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

BTW, to avoid any confusion going forward, are we considering the initial overrunning potential and the potential 2nd wave on 3/3 - 3/5 (as shown above) the same system for discussion purposes, or will we have separate storm threads for each?

 

WEll I guess my question has been answered...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45853-march-3-4th-winter-storm-potential/

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Gotta agree. Who wants a snowpack refresher in March? Big dog or GTFO.

I see you have joined the darkside lol.

 

Im in the minority and I couldnt care less. A 12" glacier looks like a 12" glacier. A 12" glacier with 2" of powder on top looks like a fresh 14" snowpack. Bring it on. The bigger the better, but small is accepted too.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I see you have joined the darkside lol.

 

Im in the minority and I couldnt care less. A 12" glacier looks like a 12" glacier. A 12" glacier with 2" of powder on top looks like a fresh 14" snowpack. Bring it on. The bigger the better, but small is accepted too.

 

lol, ok, to clarify....

 

smaller accumulating snows are still good in March. I'll take a 2-4"er over 50s and occasional showers in March any day. My GTFO comment was more directed at the snowpack/glacier. I'm not a fan of maintaining or adding to snow depth in March. It's depressing. And so is the extreme cold. I like all 4 seasons and we should be slowly transitioning towards Spring now.

 

So...i'll take the small snowfalls in March but there should be enough warmth starting to get interspersed between them to see a gradual decline in snowcover/snow depth.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

lol, ok, to clarify....

 

smaller accumulating snows are still good in March. I'll take a 2-4"er over 50s and occasional showers in March any day. My GTFO comment was more directed at the snowpack/glacier. I'm not a fan of maintaining or adding to snow depth in March. It's depressing. And so is the extreme cold. I like all 4 seasons and we should be slowly transitioning towards Spring now.

 

So...i'll take the small snowfalls in March but there should be enough warmth starting to get interspersed between them to see a gradual decline in snowcover/snow depth.

I like the seasons too. I hate spring (allergies) but still think its pretty. But I love summer (not too hot), fall, and winter.

 

But for a 2nd straight March we are starting the month with a totally uncharacteristally deep, dense snowpack. So why not! In normal years I tend to agree with you...March is about sunny and warm one day, snow the next and even I say I lose the snowcover mantra in March because its unrealistic....but once again, deep winter is locked in when we start the month, and for a 2nd straight year, its NOT unrealistic!

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

I like the seasons too. I hate spring (allergies) but still think its pretty. But I love summer (not too hot), fall, and winter.

But for a 2nd straight March we are starting the month with a totally uncharacteristally deep, dense snowpack. So why not! In normal years I tend to agree with you...March is about sunny and warm one day, snow the next and even I say I lose the snowcover mantra in March because its unrealistic....but once again, deep winter is locked in when we start the month, and for a 2nd straight year, its NOT unrealistic!

Isn't this the 3rd straight year, wasn't spring 03' significantly delayed?

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I like the seasons too. I hate spring (allergies) but still think its pretty. But I love summer (not too hot), fall, and winter.

 

But for a 2nd straight March we are starting the month with a totally uncharacteristally deep, dense snowpack. So why not! In normal years I tend to agree with you...March is about sunny and warm one day, snow the next and even I say I lose the snowcover mantra in March because its unrealistic....but once again, deep winter is locked in when we start the month, and for a 2nd straight year, its NOT unrealistic!

 

Yeah, there's a good 14-18" snowpack here. That's pretty impressive this late in the season. I admit that. But I'm not going to root for its preservation. It is what it is and I hope it starts melting soon.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Yeah, there's a good 14-18" snowpack here. That's pretty impressive this late in the season. I admit that. But I'm not going to root for its preservation. It is what it is and I hope it starts melting soon.

I hope so too, preserving glacier isn't exciting and all it does is push back the nicer weather of spring.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

I hope so too, preserving glacier isn't exciting and all it does is push back the nicer weather of spring.

 

With the Lakes solidly frozen over again, we can expect alot of surface cooling and that may mean another cool spring and summer like last season. I'd take that over the incredibly hot summers of 2011 and 2012. I personally wouldn't mind a summer like 2010, however. 

 

Sorry for going OT. 

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