February 28th-March 2nd possibly significant overrunning event/winter storm

[Thundersnow12]

The models have been hinting at something of interest the last few days with the GFS as usual it seems in this range with a setup like this, is being fairly consistent.

The Euro has had it as well and several ensemble members are some serious big dogs.

Hard not to favor the long duration overrunning scenario at this stage until we see some more evidence of good phasing IMO.

Images to come later.

[Hoosier]

Setup seems pretty good for a big hit somewhere at this juncture.  As mentioned in the long range thread, the most likely way I could see this failing is if too much energy gets left behind and we end up with a less impressive/suppressed/weaker solution.

[Brewers]

Still think we sacrifice one more system before the NW sub forum starts to cash in.

[buckeye]

Setup seems pretty good for a big hit somewhere at this juncture.  As mentioned in the long range thread, the most likely way I could see this failing is if too much energy gets left behind and we end up with a less impressive/suppressed/weaker solution.

 

I'm not sure what to root for...I'm pretty much starting to get that mixed feeling of wanting the warmth to start winning out.   If this cranks and goes nw, we'll get warm and rain...in March, I'm perfectly ok with that....but then I wonder if it would bring down the cold again and make it even worse afterwards.  

[snowstormcanuck]

It may rain. It may snow. It may be dry.

[Thundersnow12]

Setup seems pretty good for a big hit somewhere at this juncture.  As mentioned in the long range thread, the most likely way I could see this failing is if too much energy gets left behind and we end up with a less impressive/suppressed/weaker solution.

 

I think the odds for some good overrunning at the least is in the cards. Really nice SW flow atop the plains over a nice and long WAA pattern with trajectories from the western GOM. 

 

With the last few systems, we haven't had this type of ridging/SW flow. argues for a good deal of moisture being advected northward. 

 

[Powerball]

It may rain. It may snow. It may be dry.

It may be warm. It may be cold.

As long as I'm not missing out on a big dog, all of the possibilities are fine with me.

[dmc76]

It may rain. It may snow. It may be dry.

I say dry and it stays south.

[snowstormcanuck]

GGEM more progressive with the northern stream. Shunts the baroclinic zone a bit further to the south than the GFS.

[Powerball]

GGEM more progressive with the northern stream. Shunts the baroclinic zone a bit further to the south than the GFS.

Still a vast improvement verbatim from the 00z run.

[snowstormcanuck]

It may be warm. It may be cold.

As long as it's not a big dog, all of the possibilities are fine with me.

 

lol @ you eschewing a big dog. No need for you to provide rationale. I know it's BS.

[Hoosier]

Powerball is going out of town I think, so I could understand why he would be rooting for a miss.

[Powerball]

I think my post was misunderstood.

I meant I'd be ok with rain or suppression as long as we're not missing out on a big dog.

[snowstormcanuck]

I think my post was misunderstood.

I meant I'd be ok with rain or suppression as long as we're not missing out on a big dog.

 

Hoosier explained it. You're not going to be around.

[Hoosier]

Hoosier explained it. You're not going to be around.

 

 

I could be misremembering/thinking of someone else on the board.

[Powerball]

I could be misremembering/thinking of someone else on the board.

Jonger's been planning another trip up north (which is where he was for GHD 2).

[michsnowfreak]

I think my post was misunderstood.

I meant I'd be ok with rain or suppression as long as we're not missing out on a big dog.

Where are you going?

 

I would take suppression over rain ANY day.

[Snowstorms]

The 12z Euro wasn't to bad. Had a nice overrunning event, but alot of WAA creeping in for most of us.

Had a modest 3-5" for SE Michigan and 6-8" for the GTA. Chicago and its surrounding area was in a wide range of accumulations. Northern areas 6"+ and southern was around 3-6".

[hawkeye_wx]

It's looking pretty good for Iowa, but it'll be at least Thursday before we can think about locking in a snow forecast.

[Thundersnow12]

Uh what? From the guy who wrote the AFD for LOT...

 

It's all snow buddy

 

THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A  
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH CNTRL  
IL/IN...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A LARGE PART OF THE CWA RECEIVING EITHER  
ALL RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...WITH THE PREVAILING SNOW CONFINED TO  
THE NRN TIER COUNTIES ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER.

[A-L-E-K]

Maybe he's still talking about 6z

[Thundersnow12]

Another good widespread hit on the 18z GFS.

[blizzardof96]

PWAT's in excess of 1.5" getting pulled into this system per the 18z GFS. Normalized anomalies up to +2Std across S IL,IN, OH and MO.

 

Lots of moisture to work with.

[cyclone77]

Euro lifts the 540 thickness line from Rockford back to Iowa City for a time Sunday, which could imply mixing issues as far north as I-80 in the DVN area.  Could be a pretty tricky forecast for LOT and DVN if the Euro is correct.  I'm just glad we have another system to track at this point.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Where are you going?

 

I would take suppression over rain ANY day.

I'm with you on that. I can't stand rain in the cold months.

[blizzardof96]

Few reasons why LL cold air might be underestimated on the euro...

 

1)A fairly strong sfc ridge extends north of the system from the plains to New Brunswick

 

2) Strengthening PVA is approaching from the NW in tandem with falling thicknesses as moisture moves NE

 

3) A fairly deep snowpack is in place in addition to frigid ground temps

[harrisale]

Few reasons why LL cold air might be underestimated on the euro...

1)A fairly strong sfc ridge extends north of the system from the plains to New Brunswick

2) Strengthening PVA is approaching from the NW in tandem with falling thicknesses as moisture moves NE

3) A fairly deep snowpack is in place in addition to frigid ground temps

Third point is certainly true. There's been a thick snowpack over 8" here for a few weeks now, and we're in a record cold arctic airmass.

System will have a lot of cold air to work with, and good moisture feed as mentioned. This far out, those are some encouraging signs that someone gets significant snow.

[cyclone77]

00z GFS continues to indicate long-duration overrunning snow event over a widespread area.  rain/snow line significantly further south than the 12z Euro.  

[Jackstraw]

Thundersnow started the thread 

[Thundersnow12]

00z GFS continues to indicate long-duration overrunning snow event over a widespread area.  rain/snow line significantly further south than the 12z Euro.  

 

Northern stream is quicker which results in less phasing/less ridging and the baroclinic zone crashing south quicker. 

 

Still manage 4-6" here but don't like the UL look this run.