ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's possible nobody sees advisory snows... with the possible exception of Nantucket. Yeah very possible...esp if it ticks east again before gametime. But it will probably only take about 0.15" of liquid to achieve advisory. The soundings look excellent for snow growth. So we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah very possible...esp if it ticks east again before gametime. But it will probably only take about 0.15" of liquid to achieve advisory. The soundings look excellent for snow growth. So we'll see. Seal farts have produced good snows in Eastern Mass over the past month, it wouldn't surprise me at all to find someone getting 5-6" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z RGEM So far all guidance is not far off from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm thinking BOX is a little too zealous with its 3-5" WWA here. Areas SE of PYM should verify those amounts though. NW of there is more precarious IMO. This should easily get BOS over 100" on the season though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Someone along and east of a LWM-PVD line could see a surprise in this...it's not a long event, but for a few hours, the soundings are really favorable and there's a nice area of convergence. So if someone pounds for a couple hours in an enhanced band, you could see some lollis higher than the general 1-3/2-4. Again, this is assuming this doesn't wobble back east 25-40 miles. But status quo suggests to watch closely tomorrow night. Our forecast soundings heading Down East (RKD) look great. A little MAULish early Wednesday at times. I suspect eastern MA looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM BUFKIT continues to suggest ~22:1 ratios and it's been very accurate this winter in our colder events as far as ratios go(And looking at soundings that number is backed up I think). 22:1 is probably a bit too bullish to use in a forecast, but say you use 18:1 and take a blend of the 12z guidance that we've seen so far(NAM, RGEM, GFS), that essentially argues for advisory totals just SE of the BOS-PVD line and SE from there with 1-3" back to that corridor and just west. Should push BOS over the 100" mark and set us up for a position where one more moderate event dethrones 95-96, and I have a pretty hard time imagining that we don't see at least one more moderate event before the winter is out given what I'm seeing on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Can anyone show me an event in the 2014-2015 winter where the SREF guidance was legitimately useful in indicating something with greater skill than another model -- any other model -- in general? I ask this sincerely; I have trouble understanding why they're being tugged into the mix at all when I would just as soon mention the JMA or DGEX and yet it seems like the SREFs are now and again being tossed up as harbingers of subtle trends. Sometimes I think even the NAM gets more credence than it should mostly because it runs four times a day, three runs of which are at times that coincide well with people being awake. The SREF's seem like a more garbage-y brand of garbage in the same garbage barge, or "garbarge" if you will. Short term ensembles are still inherently a nice idea (this is provided the data are good in the first place of course). As for the NAM it also helps that it is the highest resolution of modeling that the NWS can use. So when you are trying to resolve small scale feature, oftentimes you only have the NAM as an option. For better or for worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just a dusting IMBY is still my call Enjoy it on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Our forecast soundings heading Down East (RKD) look great. A little MAULish early Wednesday at times. I suspect eastern MA looks similar. Yeah especially the 06z NAM run...it actually had TTs in BOS in the mid to upper 40s. 12z run dries it out a bit above 700mb given that it ticked east, so not quite as impressive. But someone in that deeper layer of moisture (up through like 500-600mb) could get a pretty nasty S+ burst for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM BUFKIT continues to suggest ~22:1 ratios and it's been very accurate this winter in our colder events as far as ratios go(And looking at soundings that number is backed up I think). 22:1 is probably a bit too bullish to use in a forecast, but say you use 18:1 and take a blend of the 12z guidance that we've seen so far(NAM, RGEM, GFS), that essentially argues for advisory totals just SE of the BOS-PVD line and SE from there with 1-3" back to that corridor and just west. Should push BOS over the 100" mark and set us up for a position where one more moderate event dethrones 95-96, and I have a pretty hard time imagining that we don't see at least one more moderate event before the winter is out given what I'm seeing on guidance. Yea, Boston is a cinch to get it. It will be a struggle for me to get the 21" that I need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah especially the 06z NAM run...it actually had TTs in BOS in the mid to upper 40s. 12z run dries it out a bit above 700mb given that it ticked east, so not quite as impressive. But someone in that deeper layer of moisture (up through like 500-600mb) could get a pretty nasty S+ burst for a time. Yeah, 12z run had only a 3 hour period of DGZ saturation for BOS before it's all gone. Forecast probably argues for a one zone or one county warning for us near Penobscot Bay, but I'm not sure we'll pull the trigger on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z GFS continues the east theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Bob, what is the scale on those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Bob, what is the scale on those maps? All are straight 10:1 ratios which will be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Bob, what is the scale on those maps? 3rd shade of blue is 1+ inch...assumes a 10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 i'm expecting a coating to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 1-2 for bos imo. 3-5 outer cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Dissapointing trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Regarding Boston's official 100, this should be a system where Logan does better than most of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Regarding Boston's official 100, this should be a system where Logan does better than most of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 100 almost feels like a fortress of solitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Is that slightly elevated amount over S/E RI legitimate? I'm usually in the area that receives less, not more, lol... granted this time its probably only an extra inch or two, but heck I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Dissapointing trends About as dissapointing as the other fraud inverted trough. Stop falling for them, and they won't dissapoint. Never expect anything from them, and enjoy whatever you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS came west as did the hi res. System looks fine will just need to watch for that sneaky band that will somehow pummel Worcester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I know...Ray gave up too soon on this last night. Did I? I gave up for me, not CC. Lets see what happens. The most aggressive guidance gives me 2"....easy there, killah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 100 almost feels like a fortress of solitude. It'll fall tonight. It might only be like 0.7", but since it only takes 0.1" to achieve 100" at BOS, it's not a tall task. Hopefully it's a burst that gives them 3" to make it a bit more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS came west as did the hi res. System looks fine will just need to watch for that sneaky band that will somehow pummel Worcester. I think you should grab at least an inch or two. Not a bad little event down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro basically holds firm, maybe a weenie hair heavier near I-95 east, but that's likely in the range of model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 About as dissapointing as the other fraud inverted trough. Stop falling for them, and they won't dissapoint. Never expect anything from them, and enjoy whatever you get. when box paints me 3-4" and trends move west for 4 runs in a row I think every single person bought them, not "disappointed" where it effects me in life lol, but how could you not buy them , the meteorology was solid. I mean from here it looks like you just lucked out with your early call now if this trends east unless If your call was no big deal whether you got a dusting or 2" then yes I can see this wasn't gonna be giving you 6" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro basically holds firm, maybe a weenie hair heavier near I-95 east, but that's likely in the range of model noise. It's been locked in the last 3 runs, Hard to toss that aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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