weathafella Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 09Z srefs push 0.25 line west another 25 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 1:32 PM, weathafella said: 09Z srefs push 0.25 line west another 25 miles or so. Can anyone show me an event in the 2014-2015 winter where the SREF guidance was legitimately useful in indicating something with greater skill than another model -- any other model -- in general? I ask this sincerely; I have trouble understanding why they're being tugged into the mix at all when I would just as soon mention the JMA or DGEX and yet it seems like the SREFs are now and again being tossed up as harbingers of subtle trends. Sometimes I think even the NAM gets more credence than it should mostly because it runs four times a day, three runs of which are at times that coincide well with people being awake. The SREF's seem like a more garbage-y brand of garbage in the same garbage barge, or "garbarge" if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 1:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: Pretty good discussion by BOX outlining that potential for brief heavy snow in a band or two...and the caveat of this trending east vs west. But the current look definitely has a "surprise" look to it for someone in E MA/SE RI. Probably over scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 1:32 PM, weathafella said: 09Z srefs push 0.25 line west another 25 miles or so. Yeah, tightened up the western edge though. Also brought the 0.5" contour up into ACK. Nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 1:47 PM, Zeus said: Can anyone show me an event in the 2014-2015 winter where the SREF guidance was legitimately useful in indicating something with greater skill than another model -- any other model -- in general? I ask this sincerely; I have trouble understanding why they're being tugged into the mix at all when I would just as soon mention the JMA or DGEX and yet it seems like the SREFs are now and again being tossed up as harbingers of subtle trends. Sometimes I think even the NAM gets more credence than it should mostly because it runs four times a day, three runs of which are at times that coincide well with people being awake. The SREF's seem like a more garbage-y brand of garbage in the same garbage barge, or "garbarge" if you will. I really just use it to compare to other guidance. Right now it looks like it's in line with everything else. All systems go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 1:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably over scooter I think heaviest is probably just SE of me. I do agree with Will et al that it has a surprise look for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 1:52 PM, CoastalWx said: I think heaviest is probably just SE of me. I do agree with Will et al that it has a surprise look for some. BOX has 2-3" here. I'll go coating-2". 1" nets 2005 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 1:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: BOX has 2-3" here. I'll go coating-2". On that note, NAM goes east..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 1:58 PM, CoastalWx said: On that note, NAM goes east..lol. No surprise. I figured it overtrended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 There has never been much of a threat for much of anything outside of ACK and outter cape. AIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's a tough call because it's probably going to have a heavy band and then dropping off to nothing quickly to the west. We'll see what the others bring because the NAM is meaningless to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sharp cutoff on 12z 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:09 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Sharp cutoff on 12z 12km NAM namconus_asnow_neus_10.png And the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well NAM is already off in NC as far as precip goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:36 PM, CoastalWx said: Well NAM is already off in NC as far as precip goes. RGEM will be a good hint as to whether the east tick was real or not. The SREF 4"+ probs are kind of ridiculous for E MA...40-50%. Hard to trust that suite of guidance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:41 PM, ORH_wxman said: RGEM will be a good hint as to whether the east tick was real or not. The SREF 4"+ probs are kind of ridiculous for E MA...40-50%. Hard to trust that suite of guidance though. I should hope within 24h they have "some" use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 This little tick towards the Euro would follow the playbook of these systems as mentioned earlier. Euro is slow to move west but doesn't seem to end up overshooting. NCEP goes bonkers, only to back down. NCEP ends up 40% too high of heaviest runs, Euro maybe 10-15% too low of wettest. 1-3 or 2-4 down here seems fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:45 PM, Clinch Leatherwood said: This little tick towards the Euro would follow the playbook of these systems as mentioned earlier. Euro is slow to move west but doesn't seem to end up overshooting. NCEP goes bonkers, only to back down. NCEP ends up 40% too high of heaviest runs, Euro maybe 10-15% too low of wettest. 1-3 or 2-4 down here seems fine. That's as high as I would go personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 2:45 PM, Clinch Leatherwood said: This little tick towards the Euro would follow the playbook of these systems as mentioned earlier. Euro is slow to move west but doesn't seem to end up overshooting. NCEP goes bonkers, only to back down. NCEP ends up 40% too high of heaviest runs, Euro maybe 10-15% too low of wettest. 1-3 or 2-4 down here seems fine. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah the east tick looks real...RGEM ticked east too. That would probably limit any shot of warning snowfalls getting into the conversation. But the advisory area by BOX right now looks pretty good for 2-4". There will probably be a higher lolli somewhere in SE MA and the western edge of the advisory may have some 1" amounts. There's about a 3-4 hour window there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 3:08 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the east tick looks real...RGEM ticked east too. That would probably limit any shot of warning snowfalls getting into the conversation. But the advisory area by BOX right now looks pretty good for 2-4". There will probably be a higher lolli somewhere in SE MA and the western edge of the advisory may have some 1" amounts. There's about a 3-4 hour window there. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Might have to watch for a surprise meso low on that invertered trough. Those things sometimes happen and the NW side of those lows just blow up in a narrow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 3:14 PM, CoastalWx said: Might have to watch for a surprise meso low on that invertered trough. Those things sometimes happen and the NW side of those lows just blow up in a narrow area. I think there will be one that eventually becomes the dominant low. Will have to see where it forms. This is a typical system so far from a modeling standpoint. Funny on these marginal ones it always plays out the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 3:08 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the east tick looks real...RGEM ticked east too. That would probably limit any shot of warning snowfalls getting into the conversation. But the advisory area by BOX right now looks pretty good for 2-4". There will probably be a higher lolli somewhere in SE MA and the western edge of the advisory may have some 1" amounts. There's about a 3-4 hour window there. So nothing back for CT or Central Ma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 3:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: So nothing back for CT or Central Ma? Coating to an inch I'd go right now as there is a brief period of weak lift and deeper RH...far E CT near Ginxy down to GON could get in on a bit better stuff. But these things are fickle...there will be some nowcasting for sure. But I think it's a pretty low probability that advisory stuff gets west of about a LWM to WST line. Even BOS to PVD is sort of on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm thinking minor event with this. Maybe short duration, moderate burst of snow. I hope it overperforms and turns into a widespread overperformer. Just doesn't have that look at this point IMO. Nowcaster. The SREFs have respectable snow probs on Thurs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's possible nobody sees advisory snows... with the possible exception of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 3:35 PM, eduggs said: It's possible nobody sees advisory snows... with the possible exception of Nantucket. It's possible we will see, out by you looks to be nothing but clouds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 On 2/24/2015 at 3:36 PM, Clinch Leatherwood said: It's possible we will see, out by you looks to be nothing but clouds though. Dim sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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