Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 EWB, TIA6.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 guys remember these Cobb Bufkit snow numbers are > 1:20 ratios i think we may in reality still reach these, but not verbatim from qpf shown on this particular run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 guys remember these Cobb Bufkit snow numbers are > 1:20 ratios i think we may in reality still reach these, but not verbatim from qpf shown on this particular run dgz growth is perfect, running average is 21-1 in most areas. Cobb Bufkit has been excellent this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 dgz growth is perfect, running average is 21-1 in most areas. Cobb Bufkit has been excellent this year that would be awesome, did not look at soundings myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 that would be awesome, did not look at soundings myselfvery stout but like Will said wait until 12z tomorrow before making that call.Nice surprise for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Been a while since I've done these RAP H5 verifications... but... The responsible lobe of vorticity over northern Manitoba at 6z is ~ 50 miles further south and stronger on latest RAP compared to 0z NAM Something to nowcast as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I gave up for me, not CC. Lets see what happens. The most aggressive guidance gives me 2"....easy there, killah. 2.25" Gets me another Huge Record. The 2 Month Tecord. This is important. AND I need powder because all of snowpack, as historic as it is, is Concrete. Can't sled on it unless you want to destroy your body. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro west unanimous shift relatively dry, 0.1 shifted from ~ Scituate to ~ Rt128, 0.2 canal east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro west of it's 12z run but still east of all other guidance. .1" line is just west of BOS to PVD to the CT/RI/LI Sound tripoint. 0.15-0.2 for Newport, RI - PYM and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 6z won't stop tickling advisory 128 east... eastern MA is within 80 miles from warning criteria interestingly, in addition to northern stream digging further, southern system emerges further northwest, you can see big changes in qpf down in NC... potential to improve phase if this trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Agree with all Wxsness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Agree with all Wxsness. We should see Box map shift west in the next few hours... one caveat being Euro is relatively dry, but there's good NAM/RGEM agreement for wetter amounts. Question is... how much more can we amplify the northern stream / eject the southern system further north over the next what... 18 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nice tickle as expected: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I expect that BOX will update that map after 12z runs and issue a 4-6" amounts for the Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Rev now into 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Mixing could be an issue looks fine for now I expect that BOX will update that map after 12z runs and issue a 4-6" amounts for the Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Rev now into 1-2" It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 How much further west can this thing come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 6z GFS moves east so we may have to watch for that or some wobbles at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 How much further west can this thing come? Not much..although 6z Rgem bumped a tic west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Oddly enough Ukie and Nam were first two models to start bringing this west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z seals the deal. BOS makes up half the difference between now and 96. Presuming that verifies, BOS by mid day Wednesday is one small event from the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 6z GFS moves east so we may have to watch for that or some wobbles at least. I am staying with 1-3 or maybe 2-4 here until after the 12z. Too many times we have seen the euro grudgingly move to other guidance only to see the other guidance overshoot. Need to make sure that isn't happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I am staying with 1-3 or maybe 2-4 here until after the 12z. Too many times we have seen the euro grudgingly move to other guidance only to see the other guidance overshoot. Need to make sure that isn't happening here Euro just not buying the more robust totals. It did not budge much from 12z to 00z. Honestly though, we are only talking about an addional .05-.10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Someone along and east of a LWM-PVD line could see a surprise in this...it's not a long event, but for a few hours, the soundings are really favorable and there's a nice area of convergence. So if someone pounds for a couple hours in an enhanced band, you could see some lollis higher than the general 1-3/2-4. Again, this is assuming this doesn't wobble back east 25-40 miles. But status quo suggests to watch closely tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Someone along and east of a LWM-PVD line could see a surprise in this...it's not a long event, but for a few hours, the soundings are really favorable and there's a nice area of convergence. So if someone pounds for a couple hours in an enhanced band, you could see some lollis higher than the general 1-3/2-4. Again, this is assuming this doesn't wobble back east 25-40 miles. But status quo suggests to watch closely tomorrow night. You mean tonight right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Someone along and east of a LWM-PVD line could see a surprise in this...it's not a long event, but for a few hours, the soundings are really favorable and there's a nice area of convergence. So if someone pounds for a couple hours in an enhanced band, you could see some lollis higher than the general 1-3/2-4. Again, this is assuming this doesn't wobble back east 25-40 miles. But status quo suggests to watch closely tomorrow night. Isn't this supposed to be overnight tonight into tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yes I meant tonight and tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 BOX AM AFD TONIGHT...(1) TIMING AND MODELS:INTERESTING SETUP IN PLACE AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THESOUTHEAST COAST MOVES NORTHEAST AND PASSES OUT TO SEA.HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH A PIECE OFNORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THIS ALLOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO SETUP FORA SHORT TIME ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BRIEFLY PULLING DEEPERMOISTURE/LIFT NORTHWARD. THIS LOOKS TO BE FOR A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIODROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. WHILE A BIT OF SNOW COULDIMPACT THE VERY EARLY PART OF THE WED AM RUSH HOUR ACROSS FAREASTERN MA...THE BULK OF IT SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN. ACROSS WESTERNMA/NORTHERN CT...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DROP A COATING TO 1INCH OR SO OVERNIGHT BUT FOCUS SHOULD BE EAST OF THIS REGION.MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SNOWGROWTH ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR A FEW HOURSLATE TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEARLY 20MICROBARS PER SECOND OF LIFT WITHIN THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION. INADDITION...THE NAM/RGEM ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME -EPV ACROSSEASTERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF 1+ INCH PER HOURSNOWFALL RATES. LATEST RGEM/GFS/NAM ALL SHOWING BETWEEN 0.15 AND0.35 INCHES OF QPF. GIVEN FAIRLY ROBUST LIFT IN THE SNOWGROWTHREGION...EXPECT RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15 OR 20 TO 1.(2) WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:GIVEN THE REASONING ABOVE HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WEATHER WEATHERADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE I-95 CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTHSHORE...TO THE BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. THIS IS MAINLY FOR 2TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONGTHE IMMEDIATE COAST.(3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY:THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS AN EXPECTED SHARP CUTOFF INTHE STRONGER LIFT/FORCING/QPF AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EVENT.THE HEAVIEST QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET...BUTMESOSCALE MODELS BRING SURFACE TEMPS BETWEEN 32AND 34 IN THIS REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MEANS THERE COULDBE SOME MELTING IF SNOW IS NOT FALLING MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME.THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEST FOR THE LAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...BUTITS POSSIBLE THEY HAVE TRENDED TOO FAR WEST ON THEIR 00Z RUNS. IFTHIS IS THE CASE...THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR WINTER WEATHERADVISORY MAY ONLY SEE A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. ON THEFLIP SIDE OF THE COIN...IF THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FURTHER WEST AT 12ZWE WOULD EVEN NEED TO EXPAND OUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/ADVISORY A BITFURTHER WEST. THERE EVEN WOULD BRING A LOW RISK THAT A FEW AREASTOUCH LOW END WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Pretty good discussion by BOX outlining that potential for brief heavy snow in a band or two...and the caveat of this trending east vs west. But the current look definitely has a "surprise" look to it for someone in E MA/SE RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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