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2/25 Hump Day Fluffer


Clinch Leatherwood

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Matches up better with my total. 

 

I though some of the media derived totals coming out of there seemed a bit high..shocking, I know...

 

Yeah I don't have a great location to measure here in Lowell due to all the trees and structures, so I was going with what was reported by the coop. But maybe it's a combination of coops and observations. I do know we were ahead of Ray by about 4-6" before the pattern change in late January. 

 

UML has got to keep records. I mean they have a weather program over there.

 

edit:

I stand corrected for November and Dec. While we did get a little more for that borderline dec event, I was thinking of the Thanksgiving eve storm being higher. Of course I wasn't around here for that storm which doesn't help. 

 

Lowell is probably close to Ray's totals since I'm only about 7 miles to his northwest.

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Looks like the mid coast is piling up the snowfall.

 

My updated total snowfall is 6" even. Snowfall has ceased and is moving east.

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
838 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 23
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/GRAY

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                  
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MAINE

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
   2 NW FALMOUTH          1.0   614 AM  2/25  

                       

...KNOX COUNTY...
   UNION                  7.0   806 AM  2/25

                         

...LINCOLN COUNTY...
   NEWCASTLE              8.0   804 AM  2/25                         
   WHITEFIELD             4.5   800 AM  2/25  

                       

...SAGADAHOC COUNTY...
   PHIPPSBURG             6.0   754 AM  2/25                         
   BATH                   5.8   755 AM  2/25                         
   2 WNW BOWDOINHAM       3.0   810 AM  2/25

                         

...YORK COUNTY...
   2 NNW SACO             0.5   629 AM  2/25

 

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000

NOUS41 KBOX 251231

PNSBOX

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-260031-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

731 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 9

HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION

IS EXTENDED TO SKYWARN SPOTTERS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...MEDIA AND

HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE

ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...

CENTERVILLE 4.2 607 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

BARNSTABLE 4.2 521 AM 2/25 NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUTH DENNIS 4.1 615 AM 2/25 EMERGENCY MANAGER

FALMOUTH 4.0 634 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

WAQUOIT 4.0 604 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

EASTHAM 4.0 618 AM 2/25 BROADCAST MEDIA

MASHPEE 4.0 522 AM 2/25 SOCIAL MEDIA

BREWSTER 4.0 638 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

HYANNIS 4.0 612 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

BOURNE 3.8 528 AM 2/25 NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST FALMOUTH 2.0 607 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...

FALL RIVER 4.5 703 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

WEST ISLAND 4.0 630 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

NORTH DARTMOUTH 4.0 532 AM 2/25 BROADCAST MEDIA

TAUNTON 3.7 430 AM 2/25 NWS OFFICE

ACUSHNET 3.0 605 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

MANSFIELD 3.0 455 AM 2/25 PUBLIC

FAIRHAVEN 3.0 606 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

NEW BEDFORD 3.0 335 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

EAST FREETOWN 3.0 722 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

ASSONET 2.8 643 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

WEST ACUSHNET 2.8 620 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

...DUKES COUNTY...

WEST TISBURY 4.0 610 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

...ESSEX COUNTY...

IPSWICH 3.0 631 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLEHEAD 2.5 724 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

TOPSFIELD 2.3 615 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HAMPDEN COUNTY...

LUDLOW T 702 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

SOMERVILLE 1.2 717 AM 2/25 GENERAL PUBLIC

WAKEFIELD 1.1 630 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEWTON 1.0 523 AM 2/25 BROADCAST MEDIA

LEXINGTON 0.6 532 AM 2/25 BROADCAST MEDIA

CARLISLE 0.1 350 AM 2/25 GENERAL PUBLIC

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...

NANTUCKET 2.5 555 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

...NORFOLK COUNTY...

RANDOLPH 2.5 633 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

BRAINTREE 2.2 642 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

WEYMOUTH 2.0 538 AM 2/25 BROADCAST MEDIA

NORWOOD 1.7 714 AM 2/25 NWS EMPLOYEE

FRANKLIN 1.3 724 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

ROCHESTER 4.0 719 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

CARVER 3.2 530 AM 2/25 NWS EMPLOYEE

MIDDLEBORO 2.8 613 AM 2/25 NWS EMPLOYEE

ROCKLAND 2.7 631 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

EAST BRIDGEWATER 2.4 645 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

PEMBROKE 2.0 537 AM 2/25 BROADCAST MEDIA

DUXBURY 2.0 715 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

ONSET 2.0 221 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

MARSHFIELD 2.0 700 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

ROSLINDALE 2.0 523 AM 2/25 BROADCAST MEDIA

1 N EAST BOSTON 1.9 700 AM 2/25 LOGAN AIRPORT

WINTHROP 1.9 700 AM 2/25 NONE

DORCHESTER 1.8 436 AM 2/25 SOCIAL MEDIA

RHODE ISLAND

...BRISTOL COUNTY...

BRISTOL 4.5 654 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

BARRINGTON 1.0 1227 AM 2/25 BROADCAST MEDIA

...KENT COUNTY...

2 NNW WARWICK 2.6 700 AM 2/25 TF GREEN AIRPORT

WARWICK 2.5 718 AM 2/25 HAM RADIO

WEST WARWICK 2.5 616 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

GREENE 1.0 415 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEWPORT COUNTY...

LITTLE COMPTON 4.5 445 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

MIDDLETOWN 3.8 435 AM 2/25 AMATEUR RADIO

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...

CRANSTON 3.5 708 AM 2/25 GENERAL PUBLIC

EAST PROVIDENCE 3.3 650 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

RIVERSIDE 3.0 640 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

N. CUMBERLAND 2.3 645 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH PROVIDENCE 2.0 331 AM 2/25 GENERAL PUBLIC

NORTH FOSTER 0.9 330 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

SAUNDERSTOWN 4.5 701 AM 2/25 GENERAL PUBLIC

WESTERLY 2.0 225 AM 2/25 AMATEUR RADIO

SOUTH KINGSTOWN 1.0 1220 AM 2/25 TRAINED SPOTTER

**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...

1 WSW WILLIAMSBURG 0.1 615 AM 2/25 COCORAHS

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

3 WNW KINGSTON 3.2 600 AM 2/25 COCORAHS

3 E MARSHFIELD 2.0 600 AM 2/25 COCORAHS

RHODE ISLAND

...NEWPORT COUNTY...

1 SW MIDDLETOWN 4.0 700 AM 2/25 COCORAHS

$

AED

 
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Nothing like walking into the office to 6-9 inch reports without a warning. Breakfast got a little delayed today.

A little bit of an over performer. Hope you finally got your breakfast.

 

Roads were a mess in the Bath/Brunswick area. A normal one hour commute turned into a 1 hour 45 minute commute. Slide offs everywhere. I called in two accidents and was almost involved in one of them. Pick-up truck thinking he was Superman and could fly like a speeding bullet passed me, lost control, spun numerous times, damn near taking my car out in the process.

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Heh, not often that Bristol is the snow jackpot... But yes I can corroborate the 4.5" here.

lol.

Torturous years back in the late 80's and early 90's when I was going to school there.  A few good snows, but more times than not the rain component was there.  Ended my time there with the March Superstorm of 93, and even that had rain at the end.  I missed out on the crazy, record breaking winter the next year.  Good ole Rhode Rain Island.

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A little bit of an over performer. Hope you finally got your breakfast.

 

Roads were a mess in the Bath/Brunswick area. A normal one hour commute turned into a 1 hour 45 minute commute. Slide offs everywhere. I called in two accidents and was almost involved in one of them. Pick-up truck thinking he was Superman and could fly like a speeding bullet passed me, lost control, spun numerous times, damn near taking my car out in the process.

 

Models hinted at that potential yesterday. I was on long term, but keeping one eye on it knowing that I would be short term today.

 

Ball was definitely dropped for Sagadahoc. By the time I got the forecast and started updating, it was done snowing there. So putting up a wintery weather advisory seemed counterproductive at that point.

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Looks like the upper level trough swinging in from the west has developed a little inverted trough at the surface along the Midcoast. That's helped stall this heavier band on the far eastern edge of our CWA. Someone is probably going to grab a foot out of this in the eastern part of the GYX CWA.

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A little bit of an over performer. Hope you finally got your breakfast.

 

Roads were a mess in the Bath/Brunswick area. A normal one hour commute turned into a 1 hour 45 minute commute. Slide offs everywhere. I called in two accidents and was almost involved in one of them. Pick-up truck thinking he was Superman and could fly like a speeding bullet passed me, lost control, spun numerous times, damn near taking my car out in the process.

 

Roads were clear (almost no snow had fallen) until I got to Augusta.  Sand Hill was the worst I've seen it.  Oddly, the cars climbing it did okay - maybe there was more sand applied there.  But the downhill was slick slush despite only an inch or so new.  The SUV ahead of me stopped at the top, then would advance maybe 20 feet and stop again, then repeat, with a little sideslipping each time - I imagine the driver's fingerprints are embossed on the steering wheel.  When the uphill traffic had cleared I and the driver behind me (who had politely avoided rear-ending) went out and around.  Coasted down in D-1 at about 20 mph, no problems.  (Also no idea if that SUV made it down safely.) 

 

Edit:  I think ratios must've been about 25:1, which can turn advisory qpf into warning depths.

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Roads were clear (almost no snow had fallen) until I got to Augusta.  Sand Hill was the worst I've seen it.  Oddly, the cars climbing it did okay - maybe there was more sand applied there.  But the downhill was slick slush despite only an inch or so new.  The SUV ahead of me stopped at the top, then would advance maybe 20 feet and stop again, then repeat, with a little sideslipping each time - I imagine the driver's fingerprints are embossed on the steering wheel.  When the uphill traffic had cleared I and the driver behind me (who had politely avoided rear-ending) went out and around.  Coasted down in D-1 at about 20 mph, no problems.  (Also no idea if that SUV made it down safely.) 

 

Edit:  I think ratios must've been about 25:1, which can turn advisory qpf into warning depths.

 

Poor citizens of Kennebec County. For some I issued an advisory after 4-5 inches of snow had stopped. Others never saw snow and it was sunny when I issued. But for a little less than half the county it was still coming down with several inches on the ground already.

 

Good luck to the TV guys trying to explain that one.

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lol.

Torturous years back in the late 80's and early 90's when I was going to school there.  A few good snows, but more times than not the rain component was there.  Ended my time there with the March Superstorm of 93, and even that had rain at the end.  I missed out on the crazy, record breaking winter the next year.  Good ole Rhode Rain Island.

 

Bristol is like a frozen tundra compared to newport. 

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Precip over VA Capes is really much further west than the models indicated for 18z.  I think the heaviest snow bands come across Cape Cod, MA producing up to 10" of snow.

 

 

18z NAM brings about .555" of QPF to CHH.  All snow and about -20 microbars/second are within the Dendrite Snow Growth Zone, so about 20-1 ratios should yield 10" of snow from CHH to HYA and given that the models are all likely too far east with the heaviest snow bands, a crack at 12-15" is possible.

 

Just some constructive feedback here...

 

As I stated before, it's important to keep your emotions in check and not to connect dots that don't exist. Don't just "think" because you WANT it to happen...I'm a fellow Cape Codder and I love the enthusiasm but at some level predictions have to be rooted in reality.  

 

A quick metaphor; the Redsox are down 10-1 in the bottom of the 9th. Yes, they COULD make a miraculous comeback to win the game but that would require a highly unlikely string of consecutive events.

 

Having said that, ~4 inches of snow down on the Cape!

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Just some constructive feedback here...

 

As I stated before, it's important to keep your emotions in check and not to connect dots that don't exist. Don't just "think" because you WANT it to happen...I'm a fellow Cape Codder and I love the enthusiasm but at some level predictions have to be rooted in reality.  

 

A quick metaphor; the Redsox are down 10-1 in the bottom of the 9th. Yes, they COULD make a miraculous comeback to win the game but that would require a highly unlikely string of consecutive events.

 

Having said that, ~4 inches of snow down on the Cape!

 

To be fair, the points about precip being father west in VA and model being too far east with some of the better snowfall ended up being correct.

 

But again, 18z NAM and the old 2/3 rule bumps that down to about 0.35" QPF. Then considering 20:1 is on the more rare side for SNE, knock that down to 12:1 (still above average for SNE) and you get 4-4.5" snow.

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To be fair, the points about precip being father west in VA and model being too far east with some of the better snowfall ended up being correct.

 

But again, 18z NAM and the old 2/3 rule bumps that down to about 0.35" QPF. Then considering 20:1 is on the more rare side for SNE, knock that down to 12:1 (still above average for SNE) and you get 4-4.5" snow.

 

But to my eyes, that was common knowledge among the reputable Mets even yesterday afternoon. Most, if not all factored in the westward difference in precip vs. modeled. NWS nailed their calls, as well as most of the mets in Boston (as long as they didn't completely model hug...I'm looking at you Pete Bouchard / WHDH)

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But to my eyes, that was common knowledge among the reputable Mets even yesterday afternoon. Most, if not all factored in the westward difference in precip vs. modeled. NWS nailed their calls, as well as most of the mets in Boston (as long as they didn't completely model hug...I'm looking at you Pete Bouchard / WHDH)

 

Yeah I'm just point out that James' nowcast wasn't bad, but got a little QPF queenish and assuming ratios that high is never a great forecast method.

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