Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It probably will get milder, but call me crazy if I don't jump for joy over temps that are useless. That's just me though. The thaw maybe cloudy and rainy, should be awesome. i get better tans on 25 degree days with blowing snow. Its going to be pretty ugly a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 a thaw is coming, enjoy it It'll be really nice if the Euro worked out... That (sensibly) is going to be really massaging for lack of better word... It'll 'feel' probably much warmer than it will actually be... Though, should we really eclipse 60, with west wind and sun, the combination of relatively fast warming it really will be very mild either way. Clocks go ahead this Sunday. Would be nice to reclaim evening day-light with snow pack exposing dissolving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It'll be really nice if the Euro worked out... That (sensibly) is going to be really massaging for lack of better word... It'll 'feel' probably much warmer than it will actually be... Though, should we really eclipse 60, with west wind and sun, the combination of relatively fast warming it really will be very mild either way. Clocks go ahead this Sunday. Would be nice to reclaim evening day-light with snow pack exposing dissolving. euro ens, GEFS are all pretty cold next ten days, lucky to see 45, looks cloudy and crappy on the warmer days, hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still a lower chance of something within the 09-16th or so...give or take. Not hard to see a weak developer or clipper in that pattern. The GFS and GEFS also have something over the SE later on in that timeframe, albeit squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still a lower chance of something within the 09-16th or so...give or take. Not hard to see a weak developer or clipper in that pattern. The GFS and GEFS also have something over the SE later on in that timeframe, albeit squashed. I think this winter will looked back upon fondly up and down the east coast after these last couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GEFS developing a pretty good block from AK into N Pole. Trough into CA, so basically split flow look. That would be interesting post 3/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 False spring. Don't let tip suck you in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 False spring. Don't let tip suck you in It's going to get warmer. Climo is a b**ch sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 euro ens, GEFS are all pretty cold next ten days, lucky to see 45, looks cloudy and crappy on the warmer days, hope you are right. It's not ME per se that would be right. Again, I was describing the Euro operational run. I even said, "should it transpire..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Whether you folks realize this or not ... ur trolling right now. These deliberately undercutting, antithetic posts that tend to be one liner and or lack substantive scientific backing in general, is a form of trolling effort. Look, you don't want winter to end. We get it. For the rest of us, we face reality, fact, truth, inevitability, with objectivity, and when necessary, skepticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GEFS definitely continue to hit the EPO reload hard just after St. Patty's day going into the equinox. It's funny because the OP run was the opposite at 12z, lol. We'll have to see what the EC ensembles do, they haven't been quite as bullish. Perhaps the GEFS are rushing it by a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah, agreed... I don't have any confidence at all the winter's done post the warm up. Last 10 days of March should get dicey - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think I am being realistic and many of us have told some posters that climo is inevitable. But, a nice Spring pattern IMHO simply isn't in the cards at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think I am being realistic and many of us have told some posters that climo is inevitable. But, a nice Spring pattern IMHO simply isn't in the cards at the moment. It almost looks like a case of where 80% of the CONUS torches but we have that high rotting over Quebec for several days keeping us in our own cocoon of cooler weather until finally the dam breaks and then by that point, we could already have an arctic cold front in the plains giving us only a brief spell of truly mild weather...who knows for sure, it would depend on the timing of the EPO reload. The previous days would be those 41F during the day with March sun but 17F at night with really low dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Whether you folks realize this or not ... ur trolling right now. These deliberately undercutting, antithetic posts that tend to be one liner and or lack substantive scientific backing in general, is a form of trolling effort. Look, you don't want winter to end. We get it. For the rest of us, we face reality, fact, truth, inevitability, with objectivity, and when necessary, skepticism. science, please loop this http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015030312&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It almost looks like a case of where 80% of the CONUS torches but we have that high rotting over Quebec for several days keeping us in our own cocoon of cooler weather until finally the dam breaks and then by that point, we could already have an arctic cold front in the plains giving us only a brief spell of truly mild weather...who knows for sure, it would depend on the timing of the EPO reload. The previous days would be those 41F during the day with March sun but 17F at night with really low dewpoints. Yeah for instance next Wednesday on the OP was a DSD day where we could get mild. Or maybe it's a high moving offshore with low clouds and drizzle and warmer overnight lows. I wonder what the EC ensembles will do because the 12z GEFS looked rather interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's doesn't even matter... The fact that someone comes in here, and makes a factually based, veracious observation about a warmer pattern, ...and immediately ensues a tsunamis of reasons in a clear attempt to sack/offset that toward colder is HUGELY THE POINT. That is the ad nauseam bias that makes it toe-nail curling difficult to even want to contribute around here in spring and summer. Scott, you can not look at the spread of the teleconnectors out of CDC, and then compare it to recent runs of the operationals and claim that is not spring-like, nor in the cards. I'm sorry, respectfully, you're flat wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bottom line is there's little to no spring or signs of real spring as far as the eye can see. Keep shovels handy and parkas at the ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Maybe we have different interpretations? I don't think I said it's the same pattern..in fact I did mention many times it's going to get milder mid month. But I'm not sold on that being a nice prolonged Spring pattern. Next week may be a prelude though with a day or two on the milder side on the GFS and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Maybe we have different interpretations? I don't think I said it's the same pattern..in fact I did mention many times it's going to get milder mid month. But I'm not sold on that being a nice prolonged Spring pattern. Next week may be a prelude though with a day or two on the milder side on the GFS and euro. Okay, fair enough ... You did say "NICE" - ha - and to that, yeah, I'm not here to argue for 70F waif winds outta the west, with Lilacs opening up either.. But, I think by comparison, even a day in the mid 50s with partial sun is spring, particularly during a month recognized by the science as being a spring month. And to that, easily achievable from where I am sitting. It's been so cold and snowy by comparison that's sensibly going to put a first very real dagger in the season. Oh it'll fight back - don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 To those interesting in achieve warming days... the 12z Euro is bringing the longer term pattern, of alleviated EPO and less N/S downstream consequence, into D7 now... Notice the +2 to +4C at 850 mb up to CT/RI in the depiction below: Also, at that time there is a clear off-shore component of wind. The 700 and 850mb RH is @ or < 50%, signifying generally a sunny environment for that day. Obviously, D7s are hugely subjected to change, but ... the 00z and the 12z runs of this model are the first we've seen it achieve a warmer look inside the purely pointless range. Just verbatim, that high temp that day could exceed 60 F ... Interesting to see if that could happen over this glacier - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's doesn't even matter... The fact that someone comes in here, and makes a factually based, veracious observation about a warmer pattern, ...and immediately ensues a tsunamis of reasons in a clear attempt to sack/offset that toward colder is HUGELY THE POINT. That is the ad nauseam bias that makes it toe-nail curling difficult to even want to contribute around here in spring and summer. Scott, you can not look at the spread of the teleconnectors out of CDC, and then compare it to recent runs of the operationals and claim that is not spring-like, nor in the cards. I'm sorry, respectfully, you're flat wrong. ttldr, Tips right no one can dispute,taking my ball and going home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It almost looks like a case of where 80% of the CONUS torches but we have that high rotting over Quebec for several days keeping us in our own cocoon of cooler weather until finally the dam breaks and then by that point, we could already have an arctic cold front in the plains giving us only a brief spell of truly mild weather...who knows for sure, it would depend on the timing of the EPO reload. The previous days would be those 41F during the day with March sun but 17F at night with really low dewpoints. maple syrup weather en route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Phase 6&7 are above avg temps for us right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Phase 6&7 are above avg temps for us right? great pattern reload phases, pretty much as planned, phase 7 temp anomalies are climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Phase 6&7 are above avg temps for us right? Yeah, that's why I included it... Just adds another piece to the puzzle. CPC's composites show a very strong warm signal in Phase 6, followed by a modest warmth in 7. It is interesting how fast it collapses in 8 and goes negative -- which might just time with the end of the month thinking -- anyway, the curve shows it coming to life in 5, also a warm phase for eastern CONUS, then getting strong in 6 over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 we thaw. to what degee, we don't know. I would love 55 and sun. Does much more for me than 42 and maintaining a dwindling snowpack in mid march. Feb diff story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro ensembles look really warm around St. Patty's day...but they are now showing signs of change back to a colder regime at the end of their run a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro ensembles look really warm around St. Patty's day...but they are now showing signs of change back to a colder regime at the end of their run a few days later.Like 70's? We've seen these warmups get squashed before the last 40 days. Hopefully the case again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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