Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 it was 71Sounds like himI remember his father lived in Enfield and he was an avid skier whose favorite resort was Sugarloaf. Sounds like he may have moved in with dad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Heh, wouldn't celebrate just yet if you're thinking winter protracts straight on through to the 20th unscathed.. WPO/EPO neutralization still well presented, and with the PNA in question, and no help from the AO/NAO...what is your cold confidence founded upon? March is a spring month - not sure if that's dimwitted sarcasm, or in support of what is obviously indicated by the calendar ...not to mention the mass field modes at mid month... But with increased sun/insolation numbers working with 850'mb temps elevating throughout all of the CONUS now in the bevy of operations to match the tele's, I think folks may find it hard pressed to maintain winter characteristics for a while in there. Last 10 days of the month might regress some ... could be bowler in there - Anyway, cold for the next week no doubt... either side that brief interruption on Wed... then the relaxation heralds the regime change. Matter of how long it lasts imo. I am more confident in the mid month warming trend than I was heretofore, based upon the various data sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 We don't ever end it THIS ALONG WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO END ANY TIME SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I've read through this thread several times now and I think folks are really arguing about nothing here. The anomalies look cold this week, and part of next week. Then we moderate close to normal or a tad above. Then we regress back to a bit below normal. Yet below normal anomalies in March and early April don't necessarily mean below freezing temps at this point, especially in Southern New England. The sun is still going to melt things when its out, and snow melt is going to occur with it's 40-45 instead of 50-55. At the same time, it doesn't look we're going to be getting any significantly above normal days any time soon if you look at the ensembles and the CFS.Am I missing something here? I'm sure we'll have our chances at snow whether its warmer or colder, as those types of storms this time of year are more track dependent than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yikes! Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 39s 39 seconds ago GFS 18z pushed warm-up or hints of spring for Northeast past 10-days. Trend is not your friend -- Barney is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Snow Tuesday Thursday Sunday Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well whatever kind of mild up or mutation of one we get after the 12th doesn't appear to last all that long. Looks like 18th -20th or so it turns colder (relative to normal) and stormy again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well whatever kind of mild up or mutation of one we get after the 12th doesn't appear to last all that long. Looks like 18th -20th or so it turns colder (relative to normal) and stormy again This I agree with. I still think one more very major snow event near the equinox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This I agree with. I still think one more very major snow event near the equinox.Pike north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Pike north 40/70 final revenge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 This I agree with. I still think one more very major snow event near the equinox. It's funny how the mutated mild up keeps getting usher back and shortened on either end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's funny how the mutated mild up keeps getting usher back and shortened on either end. I dunno..I still think mid month turns milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 I dunno..I still think mid month turns milder. I agree..but I think it gets toned down in the northeast with the pack and cold ocean. I don't see a week of 50's or anything like that. You can see support for colder pattern relative to normal near and after the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I agree..but I think it gets toned down in the northeast with the pack and cold ocean. I don't see a week of 50's or anything like that. You can see support for colder pattern relative to normal near and after the 20th I don't think that has anything to do with the large scale pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I agree..but I think it gets toned down in the northeast with the pack and cold ocean. I don't see a week of 50's or anything like that. You can see support for colder pattern relative to normal near and after the 20th Yeah the longer range stuff tries to do that. I guess we shall see. The EC is very warm near St Patty's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah the longer range stuff tries to do that. I guess we shall see. The EC is very warm near St Patty's day. well 10 days out we know how that's worked out.. If it still has that at day 4-5 then maybe it's got a chance..but the pack and ocean will have a say locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 well 10 days out we know how that's worked out.. If it still has that at day 4-5 then maybe it's got a chance..but the pack and ocean will have a say locally That gets a little overstated. You can still get warm if the pattern supports it. Ask Steve about Sunday river in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 That gets a little overstated. You can still get warm if the pattern supports it. Ask Steve about Sunday river in 2012. Well that was an extreme setup with no snow cover anywhere in the US except at ski resorts and +26 at 850 under a heat ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well that was an extreme setup with no snow cover anywhere in the US except at ski resorts and +26 at 850 under a heat ridge But we have seen many times where this happens. Nobody is saying 70s, but get a high in the right position and the warmth spreads up the east coast in mid March. Anyways, hypothetically speaking. I still don't know about mid month and the GEFS are definitely cooler. But overall...time to start turning the corner. You can't stop climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well that was an extreme setup with no snow cover anywhere in the US except at ski resorts and +26 at 850 under a heat ridge What about 2011? That year didn't care about epic snow cover. We had mild spells in march that melted out most of SNEs remaining snowpack. Look at 1996, late feb 1994, and mid march 2003. All had notable mild spells amid huge snowpack. It happens. This could get mild for a few days too. It will try an hold off initially with a high centered over N Maine, but once that erodes we could see some mild weather before any type of reload would occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This loop is stunning , the cold just does not want to budge http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015030306&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 What about 2011? That year didn't care about epic snow cover. We had mild spells in march that melted out most of SNEs remaining snowpack. Look at 1996, late feb 1994, and mid march 2003. All had notable mild spells amid huge snowpack. It happens. This could get mild for a few days too. It will try an hold off initially with a high centered over N Maine, but once that erodes we could see some mild weather before any type of reload would occur. No arguments there. I just have a hard time seeing lots of 50's etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 No arguments there. I just have a hard time seeing lots of 50's etcIt's really not that hard this time of year to get 50F. Especially in mid-March. Any sunshine and like H85 temps anywhere near 0C and it's 50s.Wouldn't surprise me if we hit 50F up here a few times mid-month during a relax. Like upper 20s in the high elevations and around 50F down lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Did we lose the storm around the 10th with the PNA spike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 00z operational Euro's D6-10 really retreats winter for much of the CONUS... it may be disappointing for some to handle (lest even admit...) but there is no denying that as is, that depiction is at least a temporary end to winter as we know it. Right on the Ides of March or just slightly before hand, and with gaining sun angles as is normal for this time of year, it's only going to add to the mystique of that warm up. It's probably more a fool's errand to talk specifics, but that D9 temporary cool back could be overdone, too. I say so because the vmax escaping ESE out of N Maine looks like typical Euro creating wind maxes from seemingly nothing. Be that as it may, at least for a day, SNE shares... WSW wind at +4C at 850mb (well mixed), in < 50% RH in the 700mb like that would drive the temperature over 60F snow pack or not... Huge gutter and small/intermediate stream responses no doubt. We'll see if it holds. The other guidance' have their own variation on how the week long +EPO effects the circulation medium over N/A.. Even if all that transpires, I would have my doubt that it would be the last chapter on this storied winter, tho. The PNA and EPO may yet team up in the last 10 days of the month. I mentioned this/hinted the other day, and tho the signal is obviously obscure at this sort of lead ..it's still there. Should it evaporate, fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 00z operational Euro's D6-10 really retreats winter for much of the CONUS... it may be disappointing for some to handle (lest even admit...) but there is no denying that as is, that depiction is at least a temporary end to winter as we know it. Right on the Ides of March or just slightly before hand, and with gaining sun angles as is normal for this time of year, it's only going to add to the mystique of that warm up. It's probably more a fool's errand to talk specifics, but that D9 temporary cool back could be overdone, too. I say so because the vmax escaping ESE out of N Maine looks like typical Euro creating wind maxes from seemingly nothing. Be that as it may, at least for a day, SNE shares... WSW wind at +4C at 850mb (well mixed), in < 50% RH in the 700mb like that would drive the temperature over 60F snow pack or not... Huge gutter and small/intermediate stream responses no doubt. We'll see if it holds. The other guidance' have their own variation on how the week long +EPO effects the circulation medium over N/A.. Even if all that transpires, I would have my doubt that it would be the last chapter on this storied winter, tho. The PNA and EPO may yet team up in the last 10 days of the month. I mentioned this/hinted the other day, and tho the signal is obviously obscure at this sort of lead ..it's still there. Should it evaporate, fine... Same page....around the equinox, imo. One more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 now that the warm/spring pattern is really getting legs... crickets in here... I don't care. I'll keep posting, for though the warm weather enthusiasts are outnumbered some 20:1 around here, we do still exist and may appreciate the balanced approach to both winter, and summer affairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Good luck on that Spring pattern. Maybe a DSD next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 now that the warm/spring pattern is really getting legs... crickets in here... I don't care. I'll keep posting, for though the warm weather enthusiasts are outnumbered some 20:1 around here, we do still exist and may appreciate the balanced approach to both winter, and summer affairs. a thaw is coming, enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It probably will get milder, but call me crazy if I don't jump for joy over temps that are useless. That's just me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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