CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Lock in and keep building those packs folks. Snow into and thru April @antmasiello: -EPO the entire run of new ECMWF weeklies through 3/29/week 4. In fact, PNA pattern intensifies week 4. Week 2 and 3 weren't that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 LOL, Snow into and Through April Kevin? I doubt that. Maybe into March...but it's very iffy/highly questionable if it goes through the month of March. But nice way to inspire conversation with that whole April idea...certainly your M.O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Week 2 had some central US ridging. Probably not the best look in March, although if it were to shift west some it could be.Week 3 had ridging in Canada which again is a bit iffy..but could work given a decent antecedent airmass. Week 4 looked best, but that is week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Don"t look now but Neg AO NAO with rising PNA indicated for mid Month, wether transient or not the third week of March may rock your socks off once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 No no, Kevin said yesterday we stay cold and snow through March, and through April as well!! So your idea has to be wrong..there is no warm up with the -EPO through the month of March...says Anthony Masiello(spelling?) and the European weeklies. We've seen models do this all winter. Rush in warmth and mildness only to have the -EPO trump it and cut it off. Expect the same to happen again until the EPO goes positive..do not buy any warmth. Maybe a day or 2 sure..but nothing prolonged. CFS is very cold thru March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Pretty sure we mild up for a time. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Pretty sure we mild up for a time. Deal with it. You'll be tipping the cap again. I'll deal with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 No question. Multiple KU type events with no warmup in between is only rivaled by 1960-61 and this one is snowier.Except for the first 60 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I could see mid month go either way right now. I wouldn't be shocked if we had a bit of torch in there. But we could also hold north of the boundary. The trend on guidance right now is warmer. If that keeps up through early next week, then I'll be inclined to think that the warmup is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I could see mid month go either way right now. I wouldn't be shocked if we had a bit of torch in there. But we could also hold north of the boundary. The trend on guidance right now is warmer. If that keeps up through early next week, then I'll be inclined to think that the warmup is real. GEFS is much warmer than the GEPS or EPS as they keep us north of the boundary and the GEFS warm up only showed up last night, teleconnections are beginning to show that warm up as a Jan thaw type deal then rock on after Mid month, would totally expect that type of scenario as the top analogs have pretty much that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 You'll be tipping the cap again. I'll deal with that I don't understand this fear. It's March. Life goes on. Just deal. I don't see 60s and 70s, but it probably warms up a bit given the GOAK trough. Whether it's 2 days or multiple days who knows. We'll be near that frontal boundary, but even 534 thicknesses and sunshine can get mild in mid march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GEFS is much warmer than the GEPS or EPS as they keep us north of the boundary and the GEFS warm up only showed up last night, teleconnections are beginning to show that warm up as a Jan thaw type deal then rock on after Mid month, would totally expect that type of scenario as the top analogs have pretty much that scenario Definitely some signs late month could cool off, but that's far away. Still might have to watch something after next week maybe day 10 ish or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 GEFS is much warmer than the GEPS or EPS as they keep us north of the boundary and the GEFS warm up only showed up last night, teleconnections are beginning to show that warm up as a Jan thaw type deal then rock on after Mid month, would totally expect that type of scenario as the top analogs have pretty much that scenario Euro ensemble looked pretty mild at the end of their run. But no use latching onto a 13-15 day prog. I don't think it would be the end of winter wx either. Def looks like EPO could reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I don't mind a warm-up so long as it isn't too warm and we have a period of colder weather after that. I have obvious reasons for wanting colder weather. I've already lost a week of maple production and if I don't gain that at the end of the season, it's lost income. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I don't understand this fear. It's March. Life goes on. Just deal. I don't see 60s and 70s, but it probably warms up a bit given the GOAK trough. Whether it's 2 days or multiple days who knows. We'll be near that frontal boundary, but even 534 thicknesses and sunshine can get mild in mid march.I enjoy a couple mild March days here and there. Spring skiing is great and no matter what happens the snow will be here through April. A couple spring fever days are nice once in a while. Just chillin on the snow, grilling burgers outside, sitting in lawn chairs shooting the sh*t, soaking up the vitamin D....it's a great time of year.I don't get the fear of some nice weather in March, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 I don't understand this fear. It's March. Life goes on. Just deal. I don't see 60s and 70s, but it probably warms up a bit given the GOAK trough. Whether it's 2 days or multiple days who knows. We'll be near that frontal boundary, but even 534 thicknesses and sunshine can get mild in mid march. Why do you try and get all Freudian? It's not fear. We understand spring is coming, and snow will slowly melt. Every day that is sunny ends up warmer than forecasts have them. But to torch the mid month when there's really very little support for that and at the least conflicting signals..well..I'll take the under for nor and see how things look closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 On my drive in this morning it struck me that I have been staring at a 16-28 inch base since Jan 24. Virtually nothing has changed.There's a lot of precipitation in the pipeline in whatever form it takes will only add to w-e in the pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Except for the first 60 days or so. No. I have a larger sample size...lol. Winter typically sets in with the first reasonable snow in mid December here and imby growing up. So no, you tell me 100 inches in a month it's not a lifetime experience? Remember I'm talking my personal experience vs some region wide assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 No question. Multiple KU type events with no warmup in between is only rivaled by 1960-61 and this one is snowier. Agreed. Two knocks against it, if you had to....would be the sucky holiday stretch, and now what is quickly becoming a 2011 esque mail-in for the final stanza. I've feared that all along. If I get like 2-3" that sturggles to accumulate with hardly any lift, like last Saturday night, and Wednesday rains, then that dulls the shine on this one a bit, at least in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Why do you try and get all Freudian? It's not fear. We understand spring is coming, and snow will slowly melt. Every day that is sunny ends up warmer than forecasts have them. But to torch the mid month when there's really very little support for that and at the least conflicting signals..well..I'll take the under for nor and see how things look closer in It's "not very little support" for a mild period. Definitely not lock for a warmup either, but don't overstate your case for no warmth. There's at least some support both from guidance and the longwave patten for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 No. I have a larger sample size...lol. Winter typically sets in with the first reasonable snow in mid December here and imby growing up. So no, you tell me 100 inches in a month it's not a lifetime experience? Remember I'm talking my personal experience vs some region wide assessment.It is...but imagine if today was January 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 On my drive in this morning it struck me that I have been staring at a 16-28 inch base since Jan 24. Virtually nothing has changed.There's a lot of precipitation in the pipeline in whatever form it takes will only add to w-e in the pack Nuts...I haven't dipped below 2' since Feb 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That warm signal for mid-month has been pretty persistent, and this is not the same pattern we were in; it's not inevitable that things will turn colder and snowier as we get closer. I wouldn't mind a mild spell, and would in some ways welcome it for purposes of spring skiing and other outdoor activities as the days get longer, but I'd hate to see a warm soaking rain and/or an abrupt end to winter weather chances. I also have a completely irrational desire to see PWM surpass the arbitrary benchmark of 100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 What was funny, when the modeling was showing the pattern changing, everybody was saying "I don't see January 2011 walking through the door lol. The irony is, you never can see a historic pattern walking in...it can look very nice on modeling, but we never can tell how it will actually shake out. Last March had tons of potential, but didn't deliver in the snow dept for SNE. This stretch could have very easily turned out the same way, but this time it delivered the goods. In January 2011, we didn't know that it would turn out the way that it did, just like we didn't think January 2011 was walking through the door this year, but it DID, and then SOME!! Everybody before January 23 was hoping for maybe an average winter. Great potential can be seen, but we never know when we are going to live through History, like we are now. And for those of us a lil further west, the amount of snow isn't nowhere near Hustoric like it is for those of you to the east, but the record breaking Feb in terms of temp of course is. 1995-1996, 2010-2011 will still be bigger winters with respect to snow for central and western CT/New England. But quite the run for us to nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Memorable in terms of days with snow coverage here in ENY. I must have 45 XC ski days in. Not very memorable in terms of good events. 70.6" but mostly nickel and dime events. Almost no S+. Tons of S-. Still a nice winter, but not too memorable. Let's face it, it's hard for us all to be winners at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 What was funny, when the modeling was showing the pattern changing, everybody was saying "I don't see January 2011 walking through the door lol. The irony is, you never can see a historic pattern walking in...it can look very nice on modeling, but we never can tell how it will actually shake out. Last March had tons of potential, but didn't deliver in the snow dept for SNE. This stretch could have very easily turned out the same way, but this time it delivered the goods. In January 2011, we didn't know that it would turn out the way that it did, just like we didn't think January 2011 was walking through the door this year, but it DID, and then SOME!! Everybody before January 23 was hoping for maybe an average winter. Great potential can be seen, but we never know when we are going to live through History, like we are now. And for those of us a lil further west, the amount of snow isn't nowhere near Hustoric like it is for those of you to the east, but the record breaking Feb in terms of temp of course is. 1995-1996, 2010-2011 will still be bigger winters with respect to snow for central and western CT/New England. But quite the run for us to nevertheless. Steve and I actually called for a historic comeback...now, did I grow impatient? Absolutely.....melted down, vented frustration. But never waivered. That being said, it was also apparent to me that this season was losing it's luster after the VD Day Massacre....I drew the analogy to 2011 in that regard, which just sort of laid down and died after that epic stretch. I do think we have some fun left, though....that season featured a la Nina, as opposed to this el Nino season, which are less prone to truncated endings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Pretty sure we mild up for a time. Deal with it. Yeah, I'm not sure what the consternation is all about. I haven't looked at last night's long range guidance yet, but the past few days all had a pretty consistent signal for cooling down again at the end of the month. Truly unheard of if March ends up being a bit of a yo-yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yeah, I'm not sure what the consternation is all about. I haven't looked at last night's long range guidance yet, but the past few days all had a pretty consistent signal for cooling down again at the end of the month. Truly unheard of if March ends up being a bit of a yo-yo. Haven't we forgot that March is no longer a Winter month. MORCH on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Why do you try and get all Freudian? It's not fear. We understand spring is coming, and snow will slowly melt. Every day that is sunny ends up warmer than forecasts have them. But to torch the mid month when there's really very little support for that and at the least conflicting signals..well..I'll take the under for nor and see how things look closer in Wrong again. You should really look at a model for once and stop dumbing down the board with words like torch and forecasting 50s etc when nobody said that. It's really annoying how nobody can talk about model solutions without somehow getting it twisted to acting like it's a forecast. I didn't see anyone forecast a torch other than to say it could turn milder mid month. You continuously do this and it needs to stop. It also could stay relatively cool. It's mid March by then and you need to get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 I don't think we said anyone specifically was calling for a torch.. Just kind of a summation of some ideas.. People can talk about anything they wish. Always have and always will. But differing opinions can be offered without getting so angry and feeling the need to try and hurt feelings thru angry and unsavory words. I'll wait and see how things evolve before making any decisions one way or the other for mid month and beyond. As of now based on persistence and a -EPO..I lean to the side of BN continuing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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