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March Into Not A Morch Pattern Discussion


Damage In Tolland

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Walk from Ct to LI on ice? Hopping from berg to berg

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I don't post at all, but I did want to share some pics of the ice in Guilford, CT from Saturday at my summer place (41.256702, -72.715134).
 
LIS does not easily ice over, and its usually just slushy if it does. Last year we had ice like this, but not with the bays packed-in (prevailing winds probably different). This year is absolutely exceptional.
 
Those apparently larger sheets along the north shore of LI must be impressive.
 

Looking south towards LI, then north into the bay. The ice is piled up way above the mean high tide line.

post-10805-0-17266300-1424892547_thumb.p

post-10805-0-98193600-1424892547_thumb.p

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I would absolutely not walk on any of that, brittle and slushy. Nothing like fresh-water-bodied ice. One dip in the water and you're dead a few minutes later. With the tide constantly moving, it's always moving/shifting/breaking up.

One day a bay can be buckled like this, the next it could be empty if the wind comes out of the north and the tide goes out.

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Farmer.. How thick is that ice or those chunks of ice?

A foot at its thickest that could see. But you get bergs piled up at high tide, then snow/precip may load on them and coagulate. There's definitely a full foot of snowpack right to the water's edge, that's anomolous all by itself. I haven't checked the mid-sound buoy lately. That thing must be encrusted.

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I agree, but "confidence is below average"....

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dont know if anyone noticed but um ah, GFS and Euro want to go back into a Miller B pattern for New England

 

Ensembles you mean?  I didn't see one Miller B on the GFS out to 384 hours.  But it does look more northern stream dominated, if that's what you mean.  Could lead to a redeveloper.  I just didn't see it verbatim.

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Ensembles you mean? I didn't see one Miller B on the GFS out to 384 hours. But it does look more northern stream dominated, if that's what you mean. Could lead to a redeveloper. I just didn't see it verbatim.

Miller B's as far as the ginxy can see

Bottom line is , and Will and Scott please correct me if i am wrong , but without a nice PNA ridge or blocking there is a severely reduced shot of warning level snows in SNE.

Until this changes i would temper my miller b "pattern" hopes

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Miller B's as far as the ginxy can see

Bottom line is , and Will and Scott please correct me if i am wrong , but without a nice PNA ridge or blocking there is a severely reduced shot of warning level snows in SNE.

Until this changes i would temper my miller b "pattern" hopes

flat ridge Pickles right  before Blizzard number 3, back on that train I see

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flat ridge Pickles right before Blizzard number 3, back on that train I see

I mean the ridging in the west improved in last 24 hrs on that storm, (as will mentioned) (heights in 4 corners trended nicely in lead up to that event)

Do you know the stats for -PNA and BOS 6" snow amounts or are you just diverting

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