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March Into Not A Morch Pattern Discussion


Damage In Tolland

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wish we had a big storm to go with it like then. Last year had a cold one? Not a warm fuzzy spring like turn expected at all, a moderation day then the deep trough returns, nothing springlike for a while it appears

Last year was definitely cold, but the departures in early 07 were pretty extreme. I had an afternoon high temp of 5F on 3/6/07 with dews in the -20Fs and gusts near 50mph.

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Last year was definitely cold, but the departures in early 07 were pretty extreme. I had an afternoon high temp of 5F on 3/6/07 with dews in the -20Fs and gusts near 50mph.

I was up there that day, got slammed on a chair lift into the mid station by a 55 mph gust, pretty scary stuff, full on winter. But man the snow depths were surreal.

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I actually partially agree with this/them on that time frame. 

 

As some may know ... I'm a big fan of teleconnectors (for reasons rooted in science/understanding what they really mean, and thus... why they are so very effective in assessing pattern tendencies) use in modulating the vision of where things may tend to align out in time. 

 

In the spring ... that method does get a bit blurred by stochastics endemic to late March through early May, granted... But, the balance of the operational guidance types ( in this case ..) are a reasonable fit for the GEFs derived PNA index.  The index shows another window (some 4-6 days worth of time..) where the PNA rises again...  Way out there in la-la time frames, it falls to neutral, but, obviously there is little confidence that outlook won't change.  

 

So far as the nearer terms... I agree that a western ridge "bulge" would be a good fit, but I am not sure I would call it "extreme" for now. 

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Hopefully we can avoid any big torch/dew eater on Wed and Thurs. Maybe we can CAD or something.

 

Not likely...  

 

Not you per se, but seeing as we are squarely in the time of year where/when folks tend to play around with semantics to dance around a truth they don't want to admit, and/or only follow technology products that are biased toward forgetting its spring ... you should know that languishing in holding snow pack is delusional.  Last I checked, neither a comet impact, a nuclear holocaust, ...or Yellowstone have erupted, so seasonal termination of the transient glacial landscape is upon us...

 

And, speaking of which ...

 

EXPECT A SURGE OF WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TO EAST COAST FRONT WITH ANOMALIES FOR MIN TEMPS GENERALLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THOSE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. BEHIND THE FRONT... AMPLIFYING UPRTROUGHING WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF MINUS 5-15F ANOMALIES FOR ERN CONUS HIGHS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE OTHER HANDRIDGING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE AREA WITH HIGHS 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WRN STATES BY NEXT THU-SAT. READINGS MAY APPROACH OR REACH DAILY RECORD VALUES AT SOME LOCATIONS.

 

That bold is code for dirty warm sector. That's pretty much also what the blend of the operational runs have depicted; and dirty warm sectors tend to be dewy.  Not like late May through August dewy, no... but, you're going to get mid 40s or even low 50s wet bulb temps with a nice 20kt fetch from the SW.  May as well be a cosmic scaled proverbial piss fest.

 

It doesn't stick around long... perhaps 18 hours, but I could still see a lot of open fields down to puddles and vestigial ice patches, and front yards exposed right up to the edge of corn-snowed banks.  

 

Then after that, we'll have to see if that trough can dump an afterthought into the TV as the westerlies try to retreat N (in response to blooming positive NAO).  That rise in that index heralds a rising heights in the E, and the lost of the PNA bulge in the west may all mean that the current depictions, et al, are taking on too much latitude in their depth (if perhaps correctable).  Seems amplitude should be conserved more in the longitude given the falling PNA, rising NAO canvas.  ...But, in bowling season, there's that temporal over-lap in lingering strong dynamics vs flows trying to retreat N, which is why quasi-cut-offs take place...

 

Anyway, I see that the EPO is trying to slip back negative.. and that's anchored in the WPO --> NP arc, so it probably has some confidence behind it. But the amount of decline is not huge... beween 0 and -1 SD (est).  Once we get into late March and certainly going forward, these index correlations change; heck, that goes for the PNA and NAO too.  But all things being unfair in this cockeyed world, I'm still wondering if mass-field or the PNA/NAO ...particularly beyond D6, may begin to overwhelm.  

 

Having said that, I don't know if I see a huge warm up at any time in the calculated distance of the teleconnectors.  The NAO would support, but there are trends and persistence, and other index-suggested nuances that offset that in my mind. It seems once we've rid ourselves with the current pleasant denial enabler... We should enter a fairly fast transitional pattern, alternating between seasonal warm ups, with backside cool downs perhaps a tick or two more anomalous than preceding warm ups.  But, spring either way one looks at it through objective lenses. I agree with Steve that it may be the ides of April before we get 70/50 type days, but by then... it's probably more to seasonal collapse and defaulting to insolation (sun)

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With respect to the AO and PNA, an AO-/PNA+ is slightly common for smaller late-season snowstorms in Boston, while an AO+/PNA- is more common with the larger ones. Below is a chart for 1950 through 2014.

 

Boston_Late_Season_Snowfall.jpg

 

In addition, if one takes a look at 4" or greater snowstorms (1 or 2 days in duration), the following AO/PNA setups were present when the storms commenced.

 

March 29, 1970: 7.3” AO-/PNA-

March 31, 1970: 5.8” AO+/PNA-

April 6-7, 1982: 13.3” AO+/PNA-

March 28-30, 1984: 9.4” AO-/PNA+

April 9-10, 1996: 6.4” AO-/PNA+

March 31-April 1, 1997: 25.4” AO+/PNA-

 

IMO, once one gets closer to the possible event(s), one will need to see how the exact synoptic pattern gets established regardless of the teleconnections. That's especially important as wave lengths continue to shorten. I agree with BOX’s discussion to keep options open.

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