March Into Not A Morch Pattern Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Press command, shift, and 3 at the same time to screen capture. Should save to your desktop...and then you can cut, crop, size etc from there.

 

Nice write-up BTW.

Very easy method.

Thank you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Spring starts March 21st

'Cmon, Steve....I think you know what he means.

We are two weeks into met spring, btw.

[CoastalWx]

The euro also has something Friday night, but it's a progressive system. It also stems from a complex flow in which the solution could be totally different 12hrs from now. Anyways, the point being the weekend could offer something, albeit not high confidence.

[Typhoon Tip]

'Cmon, Steve....I think you know what he means.

We are two weeks into met spring, btw.

 

It's a pointless statement on his part.  Means nothing... Spring is a transitional period that starts in the southern CONUS and ends N of Green Bay somewhere, over the course of February through June...  

 

March 21 is arbitrary date that was assigned by less than scientific application of merely knowing that the sun is at an equinox on that date, and does not present any sort of boundary to anything.  Meaningless...

 

Having said that, I lost 30" of snow in the last week, and have sported a day in the low 60s.. Now, we cold rain, and will have a mild day on Monday hereafter.  Granted, it gets cold after that, but as the discussion points surface, it is not clear to what magnitude, or if it will mean a return to winter ptype events, or if it might even just prelude a big warm up as directed by the MJO... All up in the air. Point being, these physical changes in the environment are not deniable by sane, objective reasoning.  

[Ginx snewx]

'Cmon, Steve....I think you know what he means.

We are two weeks into met spring, btw.

I have zero use for Met spring,I know my areas climo and the equinox defines my climates start of spring

[CoastalWx]

I think what John means is that the signs of changing seasons are there whether it gets cold or not. To that, he is right. However, mother nature isn't quite ready to turn the thermostat up yet in this area. 

[Ginx snewx]

I think what John means is that the signs of changing seasons are there whether it gets cold or not. To that, he is right. However, mother nature isn't quite ready to turn the thermostat up yet in this area.

he lost 30 inches of snow?

[CoastalWx]

he lost 30 inches of snow?

 

Ask Ray, he slept over last night. He would know.

[Ginx snewx]

I think what John means is that the signs of changing seasons are there whether it gets cold or not. To that, he is right. However, mother nature isn't quite ready to turn the thermostat up yet in this area.

yea winter is ending,there has to be a start and end,my climo coincides with the sun

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah, there are no fixed boundaries in time and space when it comes to nature.

 

Those are human rules applied because at the core of everyone's being, ...folks don't like uncertainty and thus rules are invented that categorize events into nice orderly, non-disappointing expectations.  

 

But unfortunately, those boundaries are blurred. In 2012, where was your climo spring then ?  Oh, earliery the previous November, after the Holloween snow storm ended winter that year.   Point being, it's pointless.  

 

That said, I agree in so much that if you take all those N occurrences, add them up, and divide by the total, that presents a number/calender date.  But that is just an arithmetic number resulting from number set theory, and doesn't "direct" the year to year variation in results.

 

In this case, deep winter ended, and spring has begun.  It's a long ...arduous process, perhaps, but it's begun nonetheless. 

 

But moving past a silly debate... I think this season has an above average potential for high water content snow storms (blue bombs).  Not saying an April 1997 redux is in store, but I don't believe we've lost the propensity for NE Pacific blocking... Even now, the indices are showing the negative arc of the N Pac as discussed.  So long as that is true, the invisible dude over the Rockies may roll a ball or two down stream.  

[Ginx snewx]

Climate is not individual months,events ,storms,days.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like highs in the 20's Wed and Thurs FTW

[40/70 Benchmark]

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

[dendrite]

I'm fine with the brief dating site talk, but I moved it all into the banter thread.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm fine with the brief dating site talk, but I moved it all into the banter thread.

 

Yeah hoped someone would    sorry too lazy..

 

Anyway, much like yesterday folks, the large scale signals are still in a bit of conflict, making for a challenge to coherency as to where the pattern is likely to align during these last two weeks of the month. 

 

Here are the Phase 6 and 7 MJO correlation/composites for the temperature distribution over the CONUS: 

 

 

With those moderately positive anomalies spread out over a fairly vast area, that is sufficient across both phases combined, to assume a zonal .. if not "ridgy" appeal to the geopotental medium creates that cumulative outcome/correlation.   

 

Here is the current GEFs/operational GFS MJO:

 

 

As you can see, this is a very powerful signal coming from the GEFs, and the operational (respective teal colored curves) in the 7th and 6th phase spaces.  The natural conclusion ...if these were the only factors forcing... would be a robust verification of the composite types.. 

 

It is also noted that after 5 days, both curves collapse at an impressive rate, while flirting with Phase 8.  Phase 8 composite does show the emergence of some negative anomalies along the eastern seaboard.  My hunch is that because the MJO dynamic spent so much time powerfully migrating through Phase 6 and 7, that is probably means less ... that it wends its way barely into 8 while apparently dying.  But we'll see..

 

But unfortunately, there are more than MJO and/or MJO related factors.  Namely, the North Pacific:

 

 

What I am interested in is the latter half of the PNA (CDC), top left;  the EPO is negative while the PNA stays on the positive side.  This is interesting because the longer term correlation between these two indices is modestly positive during March:  http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/table/corr.table_mar.txt

 

 

+ 12 is not exactly a huge skill suggestion, no. But, in the grand scheme of things ... it's enough of an emerged statistical correlation to figure it's overcoming the immense noise of the overall atmosphere; so perhaps there is more than easily dismissed.  But a positive correlation means that over longer period, one may be less likely to observe a positive PNA with a negative EPO, concurrently. 

 

Now the fun part!  A positive PNA, as we know ... promotes the positive PNAP pattern of a western ridge, eastern trough.  The negative EPO does similarly for the Canadian latitudes (oft seen as a split flow into the CONUS, underneath). If we super-impose the +PNA together with the -EPO, there is your teleconnector convergence (Ray).  Albeit weak, seeing as we re not looking at vastly negative EPO derivatives.  

 

However, both the WPO and EPO are negative, and these two domain spaces also have a robust positive correlation; so any time they are both negative, or both positive, that suggests a very very massive amount of hemispheric atmosphere is biased, so pattern correlations would come along with better verification more of the time(s).

 

Having said that, the combination of the positive PNA, with the WPO/EPO, is really quite diametrically opposed to the MJO.  What's interesting also was when in NCEP's weekly MJO update/PDF, the mentioned that the wave is in a "constructive" interference pattern wrt to it's immediate domain (10 to 20deg latitude N/S of the Equ), such that it should get a positive feed-back and become that much more strong, that much more effectual at usurping the flow (eventually) over the Pacific.  

 

That has yet to happen, as the bevy of operational model types continue to be blase with any indication for substantive warm-ups. It may just be that the NP will dominate and dampen out the forcing from the S in this case.  

 

If so, ...I would expect bowling events, if not a more fully involved meridional pattern conducive to cooler than normal, with enhanced storm chance.  If not, and suddenly the opposing signal overwhelms, then some variation less or even warmth returns. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have zero use for Met spring,I know my areas climo and the equinox defines my climates start of spring

Sorry, dude....plenfy of signs of tranistion throughtout March. Don't what to tell you, but that is simply unfounded and silly.

[weathafella]

Sorry, dude....plenfy of signs of tranistion throughtout March. Don't what to tell you, but that is simply unfounded and silly.

It starts in late February though winter still is king. Now to get s subfreezing high it requires a significantly anomalous cold push here on the ides of March. March is akin to September. September is an autumn month to most but it's reasonably common to get 90+ days the first week..though that commonality drops on a steep curve as one moves through the month. Still, most who have window units are wise to wait until 10/1 before removing the ac. By 4/1, on rare occasions as we've all observed we can have the full roar of winter. But the overwhelming signal is spring.

So what we're all saying is springs voice grows in volume as March progresses. We're now at mid month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It starts in late February though winter still is king. Now to get s subfreezing high it requires a significantly anomalous cold push here on the ides of March. March is akin to September. September is an autumn month to most but it's reasonably common to get 90+ days the first week..though that commonality drops on a steep curve as one moves through the month. Still, most who have window units are wise to wait until 10/1 before removing the ac. By 4/1, on rare occasions as we've all observed we can have the full roar of winter. But the overwhelming signal is spring.

So what we're all saying is springs voice grows in volume as March progresses. We're now at mid month.

Totally agreed. It starts long before the equinox....in February when light fall rates are overcome by irradiance.

[Ginx snewx]

Totally agreed. It starts long before the equinox....in February when light fall rates are overcome by irradiance.

yea end of Feb is a spring month and end of Nov a winter month, based on the sun and snow fall rates????. My climo coldest and snowiest period is MID Dec to Mid March , no two ways about it, it has a beginning a middle and an end.

[weathafella]

yea end of Feb is a spring month and end of Nov a winter month, based on the sun and snow fall rates????. My climo coldest and snowiest period is MID Dec to Mid March , no two ways about it, it has a beginning a middle and an end.

And we're moving past mid March starting tomorrow.

[Ginx snewx]

And we're moving past mid March starting tomorrow.

beware the new moon,we snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

yea end of Feb is a spring month and end of Nov a winter month, based on the sun and snow fall rates????. My climo coldest and snowiest period is MID Dec to Mid March , no two ways about it, it has a beginning a middle and an end.

I didn't say February was a spring month. I said the transition starts in Feb. Fact. Not debatable.

[Ginx snewx]

I didn't say February was a spring month. I said the transition starts in Feb. Fact. Not debatable.

yeah the sun is higher using your logic the transition to winter starts Mid Nov but it means nothing to my climo. I average more in March than Dec

[JC-CT]

Spring starts before March 21, without question.

It also snows in spring.

Moving on.

[Ginx snewx]

And we're moving past mid March starting tomorrow.

Donnie Baseball for the win

First, since 1950, Boston has seen a 4" or greater snowstorm after March 15 approximately once every 1.8 winters. The last such snowfall occurred on March 18-19, 2013 when 7.2" snow fell. The point here is that the kind of snowstorm that would easily bring this winter's total past the current record is not all that uncommon.

Second, the most common teleconnections setup for such snowstorms is an AO-/PNA+ pattern (30%). The March 18-19, 1956 snowstorm, which dumped 13.2" snow at Boston is the biggest for that setup during the 1950-2014 timeframe. The AO is currently +1.206 and falling while the PNA has risen to +0.984. An AO-/PNA+ pattern is forecast to develop on the GFS ensembles and will likely remain in place through at least March 24.

Third, the latest ECMWF ensemble 500 mb height anomalies forecast at 168 hours is not too dissimilar from the pattern that was in place during the March 18-19, 1956 snowstorm, except that the trough is forecast to be somewhat farther to the north this time around

[Ginx snewx]

Spring starts before March 21, without question.

It also snows in spring.

Moving on.

lol if you say it it must be, which of your climatic stats indicates that.

[JC-CT]

lol if you say it it must be, which of your climatic stats indicates that.

It's a biological indicator. We all know when the sun starts feeling different.

[Ginx snewx]

It's a biological indicator. We all know when the sun starts feeling different.

when vegetation starts to appear spring is here, otherwise it's winter by all definitions in all dictionaries. Spring is variable and can come early or late, mother nature will let us know. Climo for me is MID March or near equinox,late this year.

[JC-CT]

when vegetation starts to appear spring is here, otherwise it's winter by all definitions in all dictionaries. Spring is variable and can come early or late, mother nature will let us know. Climo for me is MID March or near equinox,late this year.

Tulips are well on their way in spots free of snowcover. Certain species of trees already look like they were painted red with buds. It's here, snowcover or not.

[Ginx snewx]

Tulips are well on their way in spots free of snowcover. Certain species of trees already look like they were painted red with buds. It's here, snowcover or not.

Mid March asout although I have yet to see a tulip or a bud. Pics? I often have crocuses next to the foundation come up in Winter is that what you mean?