March Into Not A Morch Pattern Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

ctrl alt print screen buttons all at the same time then paste into paint and save as jpeg,you can crop in paint too

Is that how you make the maps?

Paint?

I have a MAC, but I think they must have comparable software...

[WinterWolf]

Nice combination of science and humor. Very Solid work. Hope we pull something decent out of such a promising pattern.

Hope so too!! Last March was an awesome looking pattern too(Tip even had a thread dedicated to it if I remember correctly), and we got NADA...the mid Atlanic got it all and Nova Scotia. So I'm hoping we make up for it this March?!

[powderfreak]

Latest blog update on my thoughts...pretty general and not too storm specific as of yet.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2015/03/march-spring-impostor-in-like-lamb-out.html

Man you are great with words. That's almost like a creative writing piece. Really though, that's some clean writing. You ever think of pursuing writing? I don't know you but from the boards it seems like you would be a great magazine or newspaper editorial writer. Strong opinions plus a mastery of the English language...good combo.

[FRWEATHA]

Just read your blog Ray. Nice analysis. I do wonder if we end the season cold and dry like last year. Looking at the NOAA site for the extended that seems likely.

[powderfreak]

Just read your blog Ray. Nice analysis. I do wonder if we end the season cold and dry like last year. Looking at the NOAA site for the extended that seems likely.

 

It can be dry in the means and still pull off a big snowstorm.  If that storm is your only real precip event, you can still end up "dry" in a 2 or 3 week period. 

 

I'm usually one to hammer home precip over temps, but as we get into the second half of March, even I have to nod towards temps first and precip second.  Average temps are just getting too high that without a below normal pattern, the chances of snow really diminishes quickly with each passing week.

[Ginx snewx]

Is that how you make the maps?

Paint?

I have a MAC, but I think they must have comparable software...

Mac has a screen capture in settings,that will save any file type you like,look in your finder

[FRWEATHA]

It can be dry in the means and still pull off a big snowstorm. If that storm is your only real precip event, you can still end up "dry" in a 2 or 3 week period.

I'm usually one to hammer home precip over temps, but as we get into the second half of March, even I have to nod towards temps first and precip second. Average temps are just getting too high that without a below normal pattern, the chances of snow really diminishes quickly with each passing week.

From what I'm reading here and what NOAA is writing seems like it could be a repeat of last year when that bomb occurred on 3/26 that essentiallly hit NS in an overall cold pattern.

[Chicago WX]

Is that how you make the maps?

Paint?

I have a MAC, but I think they must have comparable software...

 

Press command, shift, and 3 at the same time to screen capture. Should save to your desktop...and then you can cut, crop, size etc from there.

 

Nice write-up BTW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man you are great with words. That's almost like a creative writing piece. Really though, that's some clean writing. You ever think of pursuing writing? I don't know you but from the boards it seems like you would be a great magazine or newspaper editorial writer. Strong opinions plus a mastery of the English language...good combo.

Thanks, PF......I've been told that a lot, but I'm pretty introverted, so it's tough....part of alcohol's previous appeal to me.

Not sure how to go about that, though.

I figure I'll just pursue a career as a licensed social worker with a focus on substance abuse counseling and do that blog because I enjoy it.

If something came of it, gravy.

[NorEastermass128]

Man you are great with words. That's almost like a creative writing piece. Really though, that's some clean writing. You ever think of pursuing writing? I don't know you but from the boards it seems like you would be a great magazine or newspaper editorial writer. Strong opinions plus a mastery of the English language...good combo.

I echo PF's thoughts. Nice write up. Good writers make for good reading.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just read your blog Ray. Nice analysis. I do wonder if we end the season cold and dry like last year. Looking at the NOAA site for the extended that seems likely.

Could be, but with that tele convergence, I'd bet against it....though I will say that we can't have much left in the karma bank this season because we must have drained the account during epicosity.

 

Thanks a lot for the kind words and the technological help.....I'm a brick with that stuff.

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks, Steve....means a lot coming from a long timer such as yourself.

i.e. old,lol I pimped your article on all my social networks private and public.

[Ginx snewx]

Just read your blog Ray. Nice analysis. I do wonder if we end the season cold and dry like last year. Looking at the NOAA site for the extended that seems likely.

this NOAA?

from @NOAA -

"Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely

October 16, 2014"

[40/70 Benchmark]

this NOAA?

from @NOAA -

"Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely

October 16, 2014"

No clue....zero, what they were basing that off of. This was a slam dunk.

[40/70 Benchmark]

i.e. old,lol I pimped your article on all my social networks private and public.

Very much appreciated. We'll see what we can do to get you some sea scroll sultan floods down there, while we snow N of pike.

[Typhoon Tip]

Latest blog update on my thoughts...pretty general and not too storm specific as of yet.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2015/03/march-spring-impostor-in-like-lamb-out.html

 

Hey Ray ...nice write up! 

 

A couple points of caution:  

 

The AO, albeit impressive for it's fairly to well agreed upon descent by the GEFs members, might be happening too late in the season. Although speculative (so taken for what it is worth...) as March gets on into April, the ambient PV contracts seasonally, from the outside in:  That means that blocking above the 60th parallel, may not come along with the same implications on middle latitude temperature anomaly distribution. I am personally interested in witnessing whether the downward correction will reflect on the 40th parallel, over N/A.  

 

The EPO shares domain space with the AO.  The January correction you noted in your blog, "might" have been more about the robust EPO 'dragging it down' so to speak.  I recall during that era, that there were a lot of negative height anomaly regions over on the other side of the hemispheric pole, while big EPO ridging was getting established; so that makes me think that particular downward modality may have been more EPO causal. 

 

The NAO does not appear to carry a lot of weight in the members for a downward correction.  There are several members there that do neutralize and/or go negative, but the lion's share of them remain positive, so the trend line is still above 0 SD. The domain space may indeed go negative, but the majority still pulls the mean positive, so the probability of it actually going negative is lower to me. 

 

"Teleconnector Convergence," I have not hear/read used elsewhere.  I feel somewhat responsible for having brought that concept to light over the years. Since you are publishing blogs, I think you should know that if it is a concept you are borrowing from your experiences here, that it is experimental, and may not be known to the meteorological community at large. Having said that, every time I have employed that method, I have had better than median success-realization when assessing various risk assessments. For that, I'm inclined (obviously) to condone application.  But, in this case, the AO and the NAO appear only weakly in such a prognostic set up. Also, the NAO also shares domain space with the AO.  If one or the other is sufficiently biased, it will drag the other down, or up (much alike the EPO).  In this case, it appears the AO is legitimately neutral-negative while the NAO is the one echoing the AO's influence -- but that's different than both of them converging.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

John, great point regarding the AO ....I think it will be early enough, initially, anyway....we'll see. As for the NAO, yea I qualified it by noting it was a weak signal. TBH, didn't pay close enough attention to know whether the EPO dragged the AO down...thanks for that. I always thought tele connector convergence was a real term. Certainly should be lol. Thanks for the advice...very helpful.

[TheSnowman]

I am writing this now as Monday Morning Quarterback.  Aren't I smaaahht?  Oh wait - Ray wrote this 4 months ago when everyone's Season total was 0.0".  Stupid, Stupid level of accuracy.  Amazing Ray.  This winter had the Cold of 1977 and the Snowfall and Snowpack and Snowpack Longevity of 1978.  Incredible.  You predicted this season in one word.  A Gift.  

 

I am anticipating some late-blooming systems this winter, and coastal huggers during periods of relaxation, thus snowfall anomalies should be greatest in eastern New England.  

 

What I expect to see this season is just enough of a sub tropical jet presence, especially given the +PDO working in concert with the weak-west warm ENSO event, to allow the northern stream to avail of that extra influx of moisture, yet remain the dominant stream. Most of the systems should be born of the northern stream, yet receive a quick prick of a banned substance, and proved to happy hour off of the New Jersey shore, otherwise known as the “New Jersey Model Low”. 

 

If you are a weather weenie, well versed in New England winter time lore, this may resonate with you as something akin to the historic winters of 1976-’77 and 1977-’78. As it should. You've got a gift.  

 

As mentioned previously, I expect New York City and points southwestward, down the rest of the east coast into the Mid-Atlantic to see above average snowfall, but not exceedingly so. It is here in New England that I expect the full wrath of this winter to be incurred, or enjoyed, dependent upon perspective. The further east one is, the more likely they are to observe greater snowfall anomalies relative to average.  

[N. OF PIKE]

You know what Is annoying

 

The EPO site I use stopped updating on March 3

 

Ray, I think you used it in your great blog post referencing the EPO, I know you can look at MR model output and see how the EPO state is, I just wish this site kept updating

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/index.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

Noticed that, fortunately enough, the period I was focusing on was still barely within the envelope of that cheesy graph.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Corey, this season blew '78 away....that year pulled a mini '96 between the Jan bomb and the Feb blizz. Rest of Feb was bone dry...really just one more good storm (12") in early March. This year killed it in snowdeph days, and by a decent margin in snowfall. Good analogy with '77 cold. Main parallel to '78 was blizzards.

[powderfreak]

From 40/70's blog... what's really interesting about this graphic, is that the period in late December had the most negative NAO of the season, and it was near the period of warmest winter temperatures.  BTV hit 54F on December 25th, and that value hasn't been matched since.  I haven't checked, but I gotta imagine that the multi-day Grinch warmth was felt in most areas of New England, and it came with the most negative NAO.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPO▶NAO

[TheSnowman]

Corey, this season blew '78 away....that year pulled a mini '96 between the Jan bomb and the Feb blizz. Rest of Feb was bone dry...really just one more good storm (12") in early March. This year killed it in snowdeph days, and by a decent margin in snowfall. Good analogy with '77 cold. Main parallel to '78 was blizzards.

Not here it didn't.  The snowpack was almost as impressive as then, and it peaked at over 40" where my highest was 30" this year.  The main issue was there was the amount of storms in the stretch - A few small storms, then the Blizzard, then boring thaw, Great Blizzard, and then nothing.  But overall, I'd say they were comparable here.  I can't say I'd trade 12 additional storms ranging from 3" to 12" and Record Cold for an extra 10 days of 30" Depth and #1 Storm of All-Time, but I might even if those days were boring.  I would kill to see 30"-40" on the ground for a long time so I might pull the trigger on that deal.  

 

Overall in SNE, yes this year was Certainly better.  

[SJonesWX]

I hope it snows the 25 inches the GGEM shows on that black Shi t the Red Sox put on their snow, disgusting

they use sand to help melt the snow

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I'm late to the party but nice writeup Ray. You know your way with words, excellent. Good luck.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thank you.

[Damage In Tolland]

Thoughts on next weekends bomb? Ensembles?

[Typhoon Tip]

Uncertainty is higher than normal for two reasons:

 

1) It's spring, and traditionally at this time of year ... when the n-stream first shows signs of retreat the increased nebular nature of the flow reduces the timely progression of events, and allows (intrinsically) more chaos both in result, but in attempted modeling of those results.  

 

2) There are conflicting signals ...almost diametrically coming out of the Pacific.

 

    -The MJO/South are in constructive wave interference with regard to subtropical Rossby wave numbers, which means that as this MJO continues to strengthen through Phase 6/7, it should become quite powerful, and thus the expectation is that is should also be able to influence the general circulation construct over the next 10 days to 2 weeks.  Phase 6/7 on the composites is a warm one for much of the eastern 2/3rds of N/A below the 50th parallel. 

 

    - Meanwhile ... the norther arc of the Pac, from the WPO through the EPO is trying to flip back negative, much like we have seen through much of the last 1.5 month, prior to the present ...if perhaps proven to be temporary, relaxed EPO posture.  Both indices are progged to slip back negative, which would herald in another period of AA Pac phase --> supporting blocking emerging into the Alaskan/western Canada sectors.  That would tend in spatial sense of things to cause cold loading to return ... if perhaps increasingly muted by the onset of fledgling warm season.  Still, it can snow along the 40th parallel all the way to May 1 ...later is some absurd anomalies, so bottom line, this overall is a cooler signal during the D10 to two weeks. 

 

These two signals are opposing.  It will be interesting to see which pans, if either... Things could break toward either, or cancel out in relative terms leaving a hodgepodge of potentials.

 

Tough call ...and the resulting uncertainty may be masked by the inherent uncertainty of spring in the first place ... making everything N/S for the time being.  

[Ginx snewx]

Spring starts March 21st