Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Remember when Scooter posted Erin go Braless because modeling had high temps St Paddys day? That's how quickly things changed and they easily could go back to that but sigs say no no no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Yeah it seems like the lower annual average spots and those prone to melting out in winter, this winter has that one beat. Though that winter probably had a much longer "season" of snow falling...it seemed more evenly spaced throughout winter vs such a stark transition from no snow first half to record snow second half. Yes, I share in this (bold) sentiment exactly ... Thing is, and it did occur to me when the winter wood first got put to our 'hoods some four to five week back, this is exciting? But it's happening kind of at the wrong time. I knew in the back of my mind ...circa Feb 15, that this was all on borrowed time. But not always... There are seasons of yore that conquered seasonal averages as late as the ides of April. In 1956, there was winter that was rather banal as far as sensible winter production; until March. Some three or four 12" coastal juggernauts took that season above average (correct me if I am wrong Jerry -- this was told to me by Harv). Anyway, a week ago, I was looking at a fairly static negative PNA, and static positive NAO; neither of which would help the winter obsession's cause should the EPO vanquish, which was just what the GEFs were signaling. So it seemed objective and logical to me like we were about to enter a pattern change toward warmer, collocated in time with a spring month, and viola! Time to put winter to bed. But now? Jesus christ.. What an enabling turn of events - ha ha. First, for the record, over the longer term the teleconnectors are superior when it comes to creating a generalized landscape/impression about where synoptics will most like align, out in time. THAT, however, does not preclude the possibility that the teleconnector won't enter a period of modality - and that's the neck rub... Since that time, what's evolved is about as big an Archembault signal for eastern North America as I have ever seen, for mid month through the Equinox. Hard to say whether that would come by way of a big event, or a series ... I do believe before hand we'll claim a couple of milder days relative to what we have experienced. The Euro from 00z -btw- was less emphatically biting on what the GEFs argue is plausible (but that model sucks for me out in time..) out in time, but in the nearer terms there are a couple of opportunities (in the GGEM/NVAGEM, too) for afternoons over 0C at 850 with off-shore winds and sun. Snow pack notwithstanding... that's mild. Then we'll see if this new signal has legs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Moved a bunch of posts to the banter thread. Let's try to keep this focused on the upcoming pattern only for the next few weeks. By April we'll probably start to consolidate threads again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Just like that...sans the GFS, the other operational back off and try to bring the conus back into modest positive anomalies. .. Firstly, any thing nearing normalcy is going to probably feel sensibly quite mild, particularly due to the direction of acclimation ...GL/OV/NE regions. Also, there are some that clearly missed the point all along, when the discussion of weakening EPO, and statically warm phased other teleconnectors "might" mean the end of winter as we know/knew it. ...reading in too deeply, and not reading the words actually written. The whole while I said the GEFs may be rushing things... I also stated on a couple of different occasions, that I was not convinced, both that the longer term tendency for blocking was actually over, and that the end of the month wouldn't return to winter like conditions. I merely discussed what was factually depicted by the GEFs, and many operational model type, emerging trends... And you couldn't take it. Fact of the matter is, today was 40 in nearly full sun up to an hour ago. And, the models (most save the GFS) are still deciding on the extent of warming... The very fact that is true, IS SPRING for f sake! And so, keeping with the fact ... it may be that these model runs flip flopping is more a reflection of transition season growing pains. Spring and autumn tend to have bigger variability, both in modeling dailies, but in pattern handling in general. Even the teleconnectors show increased stochastic behavior. It may be this is all we are seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Just like that...sans the GFS, the other operational back off and try to bring the conus back into modest positive anomalies. .. Firstly, any thing nearing normalcy is going to probably feel sensibly quite mild, particularly due to the direction of acclimation ...GL/OV/NE regions. Also, there are some that clearly missed the point all along, when the discussion of weakening EPO, and statically warm phased other teleconnectors "might" mean the end of winter as we know/knew it. ...reading in too deeply, and not reading the words actually written. The whole while I said the GEFs may be rushing things... I also stated on a couple of different occasions, that I was not convinced, both that the longer term tendency for blocking was actually over, and that the end of the month wouldn't return to winter like conditions. I merely discussed what was factually depicted by the GEFs, and many operational model type, emerging trends... And you couldn't take it. Fact of the matter is, today was 40 in nearly full sun up to an hour ago. And, the models (most save the GFS) are still deciding on the extent of warming... The very fact that is true, IS SPRING for f sake! And so, keeping with the fact ... it may be that these model runs flip flopping is more a reflection of transition season growing pains. Spring and autumn tend to have bigger variability, both in modeling dailies, but in pattern handling in general. Even the teleconnectors show increased stochastic behavior. It may be this is all we are seeing... Have you seen the Euro Ensemble package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 From one of the best..Keep jackets, shovels, hats and yardsticks at the ready Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 3h3 hours ago Great late season snowstorm pattern ahead for the East. But it's got to really bring it to be remembered. #1958 0 replies5 retweets2 favorites Reply Retweet5 Favorite2 More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 3h3 hours ago I'm pretty confident that we're not even close to done in terms of accumulating snow in Northeast. Let's talk in about a month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Snowstorm pattern and seeing a snowstorm in ones backyard are entirely different things. It could just as easily be a rainstorm in your back yard. In fact I'd argue that a rain storm is more climatologically favored than a snowstorm by mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Snowstorm pattern and seeing a snowstorm in ones backyard are entirely different things. It could just as easily be a rainstorm in your back yard. In fact I'd argue that a rain storm is more climatologically favored than a snowstorm by mid month. Agreed.... Days like today do damage on the snowpack as well. Noticeably lower than just a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2015 Author Share Posted March 8, 2015 It's coming CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 1h 1 hour ago Warmest part of March relative to average (and perhaps relative to the thermometer) comes next 5-10 days. After that, arctic returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 ok Kevin, you have posted so many pro winter tweets so it must be coming after the "Mild up"... do you have like a twitter IV feed in your arm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2015 Author Share Posted March 8, 2015 Boy oh boy does this look cold and stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Nice to see the AO/NAO going negative again towards later in the week as well as a -EPO reload and a +PNA off the Euro telleconnections. Sun is strong and this week is relatively mild but after that all bets are off. Obviously mid winter chill would be difficult but highs in the 30s and opportunities for snow would be impressive if we could pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 Noyes is torching early next week with highs in the mid-uppe 40's..Mon-Wed. Is that accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Noyes is torching early next week with highs in the mid-uppe 40's..Mon-Wed. Is that accurate? Could be another warm up before another cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Christ Time to accept . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Uppers 40s a week from now is not much above normal. On a sunny day near freezing this time of year the temperature in the sun is 55-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Maybe we can do 60 if it works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 Well the talk was for BN next week not another mildup into the low- mid 40's. Guess tip was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Well the talk was for BN next week not another mildup into the low- mid 40's. Guess tip was rightThe cool down was d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 The cool down was d10. After the storm this weekend the idea on here was BN next week and that there was good ens support for another wintry storm 17-18th. Seems like things just got pushed back..but now because of the early week torch that might be enough to wipe out whatever snow is left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 The cool down was d10. Yeah there was always a warm up before the cool down. Seems on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 Man the GFS really blew this week..Keeping highs in the 30's all week. Did the ENS lose the massive threat they had for the storm on the 17th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Unless it snows one to two feet capped with sleet and rain maintaining a robust pack will be impossible but if we can manage a big storm with four to eight othg we could get a day or two back up well over a foot for next week or week after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Man the GFS really blew this week..Keeping highs in the 30's all week. Did the ENS lose the massive threat they had for the storm on the 17th? Seems like some GEFS members have it, but I don't see a big signal for that. It can change though, this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Man the GFS really blew this week..Keeping highs in the 30's all week. Did the ENS lose the massive threat they had for the storm on the 17th? I saw zero models showing this. You can't use model srfc temps either. Everything seems on track to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 It was only model 2m temps showing 30s all week. It's 40s anytime you get sun in the 2nd week of March unless 850 temps are like -15 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Some of the confusion probably was from a few posts claiming 30s from model temps. Big no-no this time of year and especially with snow pack and near shore SSTs near freezing. The model grid resolution will probably cool near coast temps too much, and I've also noticed they are too cool over snowpack..especially in a well mixes atmosphere like a DSD type of day. To me, everything looks as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Some of the confusion probably was from a few posts claiming 30s from model temps. Big no-no this time of year and especially with snow pack and near shore SSTs near freezing. The model grid resolution will probably cool near coast temps too much, and I've also noticed they are too cool over snowpack..especially in a well mixes atmosphere like a DSD type of day. To me, everything looks as planned. The brief warmup post-weekend looks more robust than last week to me but it doesn't really change the general thinking of a pretty cool/stormy look for much of the 2nd half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Man the GFS really blew this week..Keeping highs in the 30's all week. Did the ENS lose the massive threat they had for the storm on the 17th? You handling things ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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