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March Into Not A Morch Pattern Discussion

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
Posted

@ryanhanrahan: Euro weeklies just laugh at the thought of spring through early April. Wow.

Wow!! So, other next week, sounds like more fun in store. 18z GFS, FWIW, has a nice storm for D9-D10 and has been consistent with something during that period. Our mutual friend Scott has mentioned this as well. Just unreal. We're gonna out-do '96 which no one could imagine.

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weathafella

weathafella

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I have to assume that seeing a "cold" set up in late March has to be taken for what it's worth as such is not the same as "cold" in February.  Meaning cold in late march might mean high 30's and low 40's which does not relate to frozen precip.  Correct?

If there's precip it will be much colder. Upper 30s in late March is >10 negative. But we get snows that late by having it cold enough aloft and precip rates that bring it down.

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
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I have to assume that seeing a "cold" set up in late March has to be taken for what it's worth as such is not the same as "cold" in February.  Meaning cold in late march might mean high 30's and low 40's which does not relate to frozen precip.  Correct?

 

Could be that way at the surface but much colder several thousand feet above to support snow. So, when the precip comes, although the temp may start in the upper 30's, the precip "wet bulbs" the cold down to the surface and therefore it has no trouble snowing. So it can be sunny and 46, but say 30 degrees above us. When the precip arrives, because it's below freezing above, it makes the surface much colder.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Keep the oil tanks full and the Mighty Macs on the hook

@ericfisher: I don't see any big storms or major warm-ups (as in 50s/60s) anytime soon...which is great news for a gradual melting of this mess.

@capecodweather: @ericfisher @angelafritz yep - honestly think question is how far past the record does BOS get…not if they break. Still weeks to go.

@ericfisher: @angelafritz Plenty of cold coming again 2nd half of the month it appears....we're not out of the woods yet :-)

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

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Posted

If there's precip it will be much colder. Upper 30s in late March is >10 negative. But we get snows that late by having it cold enough aloft and precip rates that bring it down.

Makes sense.

 

Crap.  That some pretty cold foretasted there.  As of a few days ago I thought warmer was the idea?

 

Could be that way at the surface but much colder several thousand feet above to support snow. So, when the precip comes, although the temp may start in the upper 30's, the precip "wet bulbs" the cold down to the surface and therefore it has no trouble snowing. So it can be sunny and 46, but say 30 degrees above us. When the precip arrives, because it's below freezing above, it makes the surface much colder.  

So in theory, that 46 could drop down to even 34 (or other temp near freezing) and still snow?

 

Keep the oil tanks full and the Mighty Macs on the hook

@ericfisher: I don't see any big storms or major warm-ups (as in 50s/60s) anytime soon...which is great news for a gradual melting of this mess.

@capecodweather: @ericfisher @angelafritz yep - honestly think question is how far past the record does BOS get…not if they break. Still weeks to go.

@ericfisher: @angelafritz Plenty of cold coming again 2nd half of the month it appears....we're not out of the woods yet :-)

That needs to change so we can go out with a bang.

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
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Well, yesterday was the warmest day since Christmas ...  Maybe that was the first day of spring then if going by fuzzy feelings.  

 

I think winter is ending and the writing is on the wall, and not just because it is March.  Does that preclude a 30" bomb on April 2nd? No, it doesn't.  Just because spring is arriving, doesn't mean we cross some physical implausible boundary of no return, duh. But the loss of certain indices while others are not compensating is compelling...

 

Also, the GFS is a cold outlier, not just with dailies, but with its depiction/evolution of the governing synopsis. Given to the incredible power of its own GEFs MJO prog, to surge through phase 6, there's really less support for these GFS runs that seem like they are stuck 2 weeks ago.  

 

By the way, the Euro, GGEM, NAVGE, all have a balm day on D6 into 7 where 850s are in the +4 to +9 range, with a west wind, and full sun.  The lower end of that range would support 16 or so C and the upper, right around 21 in the 2-meter.  Add to that with kadabatic flow...   Not sure about how the snow pack may modulate that.

Good morning Tip, we go back into a freezer w/ highs near 25-30 from 3/13 to 3/20 based on +PNA and -EPO returning in full force. NYC could get 20-30 inches of snow in this period and Boston too.  I see a top 5 March snowstorm in realms of possibility for NYC to Boston and -20 departure avg. for said time period. The Canadian and Euro extrapolated out to time period would support this opinion strongly. The big time winter pattern is coming back, let's face it. Also the 35-40 during the 2 day warm up next week is not impressing me. 50 is out the window, unless Philadelphia on south.  I think spring is denied until mid April 13-15th this year in my honest opinion. The cold GFS may not be so far off, it appears to be getting growing company from Euro/GGEM tonight in the late and especially mid-long term range. Now the big question, are you starting to buy this notion ?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Good morning Tip, we go back into a freezer w/ highs near 25-30 from 3/13 to 3/20 based on +PNA and -EPO returning in full force. NYC could get 20-30 inches of snow in this period and Boston too. I see a top 5 March snowstorm in realms of possibility for NYC to Boston and -20 departure avg. for said time period. The Canadian and Euro extrapolated out to time period would support this opinion strongly. The big time winter pattern is coming back, let's face it.

:weenie:

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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BOX goes ahead and cancels Tips tanning on snowbanks next week

 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT COLDER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK

* PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR

OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TOWARD
MIDWEEK...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE
INTO NEW ENG WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS.
HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPS MODERATING
BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
MODERATING TEMPS BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ON TUE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OFFSHORE
LOW PRES TUE AND NORTHERN SHIELD OF SHOWERS WHICH CLOUD COME CLOSE
TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ON WED AS
GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FROPA WITH COOLER
TEMPS THAN ECMWF/GGEM WOULD SUGGEST.

THURSDAY...
COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND FROPA WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

This will feel nice even if just for a day or two. 

 

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER
AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

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It looks like after Thursday we have cross polar flow and a direct tap of Arctic air until further notice.  Tip and others we have a real shot of top 3 cold and snowy March. I think March 2015 has a chance to be seated for either a cold month or snow month record (in the top 3 IMO).  Tip our Feb pattern has just relaxed a little and is coming back full throttle for the next 5-6 weeks. I think this ends Mid April (hopefully).  Let's just face it....... There is plenty model support on the GEFS, GFS ensembles, GGEM Global, and the latest frigid Euro weeklies. WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER!! Spring is delayed and denied until mid-April..... We are in uncharted territory.  Logical explanations of Winter ending are thrown out the window for now.  I can only imagine snowpack number of days records being smashed once the grass is visible come mid to late April.  Check the models they are frigid for quite awhile, after this muted warm up.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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This will feel nice even if just for a day or two. 

 

GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER

AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO

MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT

AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

Careful on that with inversions around

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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I would have nev guessed bordering! 40 feels balmy these days so next week will feel quite mild. But the cold slap following will feel colder psychologically.

Yeah, our average high up here is 36F right now and we are having these days of like 15/-19. So anything even near normal is a full-on warmup right now.

Will feel amazing, just like Wednesday did this week.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Caution flags in both hands on springlike wx next week. Careful now

@JoeDawg42: @capecodweather Wondering if inversion will prevent true warmup next week. 2m temps & fcst soundings keep us in 30s w/stratus & fog.

Sounds more like a coastal problem near the ocean.

But anything that goes above freezing is spring-like weather (anything that causes drip drip drip), so I think we'll still get a taste of it next week.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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There was no way we were going into real spring with the existing semi hemispheric cyrospheric background. Until we get a sustained zonal flow with Pacific origin air we are subjected to still very cold Arctic intrusions and baroclinic storms. With the SST starting to ramp up. storms and rumors of storms will continue after this brief public service announcement brought to you by Tippys Tanning Napes,your one source of all things Spring, lol love ya John

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