Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 There's subjectivity on both sides of that decussion/debate... Science tries to make March 1 the first day of spring, which by default would make March not a winter month. However, at our latitude, ...heh, good luck with that. Some years, sure... spring arrives with resounding applause, quite early in the month. In fact, three years ago, huge positive anomalies in February simply just kept rising in March; was spring on Feb 1st that season? Other years, no... Last year, we had a blizzard in March, and it was in the teens for high temperatures far too often to ever be construed as spring to anyone with a modicum of sanity... Still, since 1/3 to 1/2 the years in general show greater temperature gains between March 1 and April 1, than there are between Jan 1 and Mar 1, that month should technically and fairly be judged as spring month ... I have never read/seen/heard a definitive explanation from NWS/NCEP as to why they cordon off March 1 as Spring 1, but the temp recovery is a sound enough argument for me personally. It's just as because we are far enough N, this region can be protected from warm during the earlier weeks of spring. The nasty body of water to our east certainly doesn't help for those that want to feel the sun's rays tickle their nape like a tarantula tickles your tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The nasty body of water to our east certainly doesn't help for those that want to feel the sun's rays tickle their nape like a tarantula tickles your tip That's true into the first week of July! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sounds like normal..but no disaster snow melter Eric Fisher @ericfisher 5m 5 minutes ago Pretty perfect pattern for a gradual melt coming up. Saturday through all of next week: limited precip, highs in the 30s and 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 There's subjectivity on both sides of that decussion/debate... Science tries to make March 1 the first day of spring, which by default would make March not a winter month. However, at our latitude, ...heh, good luck with that. Some years, sure... spring arrives with resounding applause, quite early in the month. In fact, three years ago, huge positive anomalies in February simply just kept rising in March; was spring on Feb 1st that season? Other years, no... Last year, we had a blizzard in March, and it was in the teens for high temperatures far too often to ever be construed as spring to anyone with a modicum of sanity... Still, since 1/3 to 1/2 the years in general show greater temperature gains between March 1 and April 1, than there are between Jan 1 and Mar 1, that month should technically and fairly be judged as spring month ... I have never read/seen/heard a definitive explanation from NWS/NCEP as to why they cordon off March 1 as Spring 1, but the temp recovery is a sound enough argument for me personally. It's just as because we are far enough N, this region can be protected from warm during the earlier weeks of spring. Good explanation Tip, thanks. I tend to agree with you...its not really something that can be put into little boxes and categorized like people like to do with everything. I tend to think the month is split in half winter/spring...in like a lion...etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Good explanation Tip, thanks. I tend to agree with you...its not really something that can be put into little boxes and categorized like people like to do with everything. I tend to think the month is split in half winter/spring...in like a lion...etc. etc. Haha, you know... it exemplify how stupid the discussion/debate really is... just how utterly pointless and a waste: What if a given March is 10 F above normal, and then some crazy pattern change makes the following april 10 F below... Aprils mean temp is still low enough to assume that -10 would come with lots of snow chances: Is march spring and April winter that year I suspect in the end, folks want to engage in it because what's really at stake is having to cede to reality, that winter is going away. Winter's going away ... Some years, the pattern helps make that faster; other years, much much slower. But the under-pinning seasonal shift is always in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 7m 7 minutes ago @steveginx @EdValleeWx yeah don't think we are done. Break next week but count me among those who think more to come and BOS breaks record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 March is both, it's a transition month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 March is both, it's a transition month Spring and Autumn are transition seasons by definition - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 March is a high variance month...it can act like the deep winter or act like late spring...this is in contrast to a month like November which is rarely "deep winter" because it lacks snowfall and the ancedent atmopshere hasn't cooled enough yet from the warm season...though the much shorter days still remind you of winter, and occasionally we do get some impressive cold shots late in the month...but still, the cold shots in early March tend to be more impressive and the snowstorms don't compare...much bigger potential in March. OTOH, you can't get 80F+ days in November either, but they can happen in March....so I view March as different from all other transition months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 At least to me, March is more of a wintry month despite the variance. Better snow climo, colder temps etc. It definitely can get warm, but you can also get near 60TD cutters in early November too. Overall to me, March tends to be more wintry. I will say, post 3/20 can really change perception quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 At least to me, March is more of a wintry month despite the variance. Better snow climo, colder temps etc. It definitely can get warm, but you can also get near 60TD cutters in early November too. Overall to me, March tends to be more wintry. I will say, post 3/20 can really change perception quickly. Yeah first 15-20 days especially are more winter-like at our latitude than spring-like...and even moreso inland with elevation. But everyone has their subjective definitions of spring...some call it 65F with blooming flowers and others will say a 40F with a high sun angle is spring even if there is 20 inches of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 To me, spring is when we're at least 50 every day. Not till April typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah first 15-20 days especially are more winter-like at our latitude than spring-like...and even moreso inland with elevation. But everyone has their subjective definitions of spring...some call it 65F with blooming flowers and others will say a 40F with a high sun angle is spring even if there is 20 inches of snow on the ground. Shirtless yard work at 45F with full sun... that's spring. I do count spring though as pretty much anything above freezing on a regular basis. I mean, up here there's usually snow on the mountain through spring, so using snow melt is a tough one. I'm fine calling it spring even with snow on the ground. But up here, yeah, anything consistently above freezing is spring, IMO. That's the transition from winter which is pretty much consistent sub-freezing. Once temps are getting above freezing regularly, that's signs of a change in the season. Like today...had a high of 15F at MVL (after sunrise, at midnight it was 29F I think). That's not spring. So once that is regularly clicking above 32F in the afternoons...spring has sprung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 To me, spring is when we're at least 50 every day. Not till April typically. Can you really call day after day in the 40s, "winter" though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Can you really call day after day in the 40s, "winter" though? It's not spring. Too cold to do anything still. Kind of like the normal high in early December around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 March is a high variance month...it can act like the deep winter or act like late spring...this is in contrast to a month like November which is rarely "deep winter" because it lacks snowfall and the ancedent atmopshere hasn't cooled enough yet from the warm season...though the much shorter days still remind you of winter, and occasionally we do get some impressive cold shots late in the month...but still, the cold shots in early March tend to be more impressive and the snowstorms don't compare...much bigger potential in March. OTOH, you can't get 80F+ days in November either, but they can happen in March....so I view March as different from all other transition months. Last March was deep deep winter...cold dry powder and blowing snow straight to the end of the month. Was the snowiest month of the season last year and was a record for cold in March. This year I'm thinking November may be more wintery than March, as I had 24.3" of snowfall in November. We'll have to see if we can beat that this month, but its going to take at least one or two solid warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm sure everyone is looking forward to mud season this year . Should be Vermont esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah first 15-20 days especially are more winter-like at our latitude than spring-like...and even moreso inland with elevation. But everyone has their subjective definitions of spring...some call it 65F with blooming flowers and others will say a 40F with a high sun angle is spring even if there is 20 inches of snow on the ground. I know the guys at the Iowa State Mesonet did a graphic on the "beginning of spring" using the definition as the ending date of the coldest 91 day period. It intuitively makes sense, if you reach the end of the coldest 91 day stretch you've entered the next "season." New England was generally March 10-12 for an ending date. Interesting the Cape was the latest "spring" of all because they are surrounded by the cold water. The earliest "spring" is from W MA up through VT and SW NH, but we're talking just a few days either side of 3/10-12 on average. Compare that with late February for places in the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It's not spring. Too cold to do anything still. Kind of like the normal high in early December around here. Yeah I guess that's true. Different climates going to lead to different definitions. I still think once its consistently above freezing up here for highs, that's spring. The snowpack is no longer growing at that point, and slowly melting after 3-4 months of consistent cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I know the guys at the Iowa State Mesonet did a graphic on the "beginning of spring" using the definition as the ending date of the coldest 91 day period. It intuitively makes sense, if you reach the end of the coldest 91 day stretch you've entered the next "season." New England was generally March 10-12 for an ending date. Interesting the Cape was the latest "spring" of all because they are surrounded by the cold water. The earliest "spring" is from W MA up through VT and SW NH, but we're talking just a few days either side of 3/10-12 on average. Compare that with late February for places in the middle of the country. That's a pretty good definition...fits with the rough idea of mid-March as the break-point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I know the guys at the Iowa State Mesonet did a graphic on the "beginning of spring" using the definition as the ending date of the coldest 91 day period. It intuitively makes sense, if you reach the end of the coldest 91 day stretch you've entered the next "season." New England was generally March 10-12 for an ending date. Interesting the Cape was the latest "spring" of all because they are surrounded by the cold water. The earliest "spring" is from W MA up through VT and SW NH, but we're talking just a few days either side of 3/10-12 on average. Compare that with late February for places in the middle of the country. Yeah that makes sense to me. That's why I was using consistently going above freezing as a random stab in the dark for a barometer... but I think I'm trying to think like the method you just mentioned. Going above freezing consistently for highs does probably mark the end of the 90-day coldest period. After not consistently going above freezing since November, that to me is a big change worthy of "turning the corner"...and yeah I bet we would go to spring earlier by that method as the ocean influence is much less out in western New England, and our coldest period will be Dec/Jan/Feb, while the Cape its probably more like Jan/Feb/Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's a pretty good definition...fits with the rough idea of mid-March as the break-point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 If you blend snowfall with the temps...say weight the temp/snowfall like 70/30...then you would have something more in mid-March to near the Equinox or astronomical spring since mid-March snowfall is higher then early Dec snowfall. You can sort of come up with a bunch of different metrics to really define where your breakpoint is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 @antmasiello: The new ECMWF weeklies are...you guessed it...cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 So hey, spring starts the same time in Key West as BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 So hey, spring starts the same time in Key West as BOS. I noticed that. Why go to Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah, so half of March is winter, and half of March is spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Well, yesterday was the warmest day since Christmas ... Maybe that was the first day of spring then if going by fuzzy feelings. I think winter is ending and the writing is on the wall, and not just because it is March. Does that preclude a 30" bomb on April 2nd? No, it doesn't. Just because spring is arriving, doesn't mean we cross some physical implausible boundary of no return, duh. But the loss of certain indices while others are not compensating is compelling... Also, the GFS is a cold outlier, not just with dailies, but with its depiction/evolution of the governing synopsis. Given to the incredible power of its own GEFs MJO prog, to surge through phase 6, there's really less support for these GFS runs that seem like they are stuck 2 weeks ago. By the way, the Euro, GGEM, NAVGE, all have a balm day on D6 into 7 where 850s are in the +4 to +9 range, with a west wind, and full sun. The lower end of that range would support 16 or so C and the upper, right around 21 in the 2-meter. Add to that with kadabatic flow... Not sure about how the snow pack may modulate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 We have a Jan thaw then its back to winter it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 Well, yesterday was the warmest day since Christmas ... Maybe that was the first day of spring then if going by fuzzy feelings. I think winter is ending and the writing is on the wall, and not just because it is March. Does that preclude a 30" bomb on April 2nd? No, it doesn't. Just because spring is arriving, doesn't mean we cross some physical implausible boundary of no return, duh. But the loss of certain indices while others are not compensating is compelling... Also, the GFS is a cold outlier, not just with dailies, but with its depiction/evolution of the governing synopsis. Given to the incredible power of its own GEFs MJO prog, to surge through phase 6, there's really less support for these GFS runs that seem like they are stuck 2 weeks ago. By the way, the Euro, GGEM, NAVGE, all have a balm day on D6 into 7 where 850s are in the +4 to +9 range, with a west wind, and full sun. The lower end of that range would support 16 or so C and the upper, right around 21 in the 2-meter. Add to that with kadabatic flow... Not sure about how the snow pack may modulate that. @ryanhanrahan: Euro weeklies just laugh at the thought of spring through early April. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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