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February 23rd & 24th Winter Weather Discussion/OBS


Hvward

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Have y'all looked at the HRRR?  It has an interesting feature around upstate sc.  Almost like a fetch coming off the atlantic and moving west.  It meets the precip moving in from the west and blows up in NE GA.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsubh/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_subh_ncep_jet:&runTime=2015022316&plotName=cref15min_t6sfc&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6

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what about the temps?  it has skyrocketed in ne ga this afternoon with the sun :axe::fulltilt:

Maybe a touch warmer to start down my way other wise the same.

 

That is the one thing i'm a bit worried about with this system...having to rely on CAA getting here in time almost always ends in failure or disappointment. The models are consistent in showing it happening though with CAA coming in from the N to NNE mainly. Hard to believe though when right now I sit at 51 degrees with the colder air well back up in north carolina.

 

As for you though, you'll do fine. There isn't any doubt in my mind that you get mostly snow..just a question of how much but for those lower in elevation, including myself, it's a concern that at least part of the precip will be waisted as rain or a mix.

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Have y'all looked at the HRRR? It has an interesting feature around upstate sc. Almost like a fetch coming off the atlantic and moving west. It meets the precip moving in from the west and blows up in NE GA.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsubh/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_subh_ncep_jet:&runTime=2015022316&plotName=cref15min_t6sfc&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6

It's an inverted trof, most models show it somewhere in NRN GA

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Really not sure what is happening here, this area is not prepared, any indications for you more experienced guys will be most helpful, evans ga 30809

Raine1212 I am in Augusta as well, reading here to learn but this is not the place to come asking of specifics on what is going to happen where. You should also read the sticky about the forum being in "storm mode".

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Maybe a touch warmer to start down my way other wise the same.

 

That is the one thing i'm a bit worried about with this system...having to rely on CAA getting here in time almost always ends in failure or disappointment. The models are consistent in showing it happening though with CAA coming in from the N to NNE mainly. Hard to believe though when right now I sit at 51 degrees with the colder air well back up in north carolina.

 

As for you though, you'll do fine. There isn't any doubt in my mind that you get mostly snow..just a question of how much but for those lower in elevation, including myself, it's a concern that at least part of the precip will be waisted as rain or a mix.

 

thanks but i also am all too familiar with the cold chasing the moisture.  its 58 right now, so i have a hard time believing its going to get cold enough for tonight.  i am hopefuly, but will admit i am dubious lol

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Raine1212 I am in Augusta as well, reading here to learn but this is not the place to come asking of specifics on what is going to happen where. You should also read the sticky about the forum being in "storm mode".

thank you for the information, is there a place that has any information for the CSRA. Or a discussion forum for our area?

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Maybe a touch warmer to start down my way other wise the same.

 

That is the one thing i'm a bit worried about with this system...having to rely on CAA getting here in time almost always ends in failure or disappointment. The models are consistent in showing it happening though with CAA coming in from the N to NNE mainly. Hard to believe though when right now I sit at 51 degrees with the colder air well back up in north carolina.

 

As for you though, you'll do fine. There isn't any doubt in my mind that you get mostly snow..just a question of how much but for those lower in elevation, including myself, it's a concern that at least part of the precip will be waisted as rain or a mix.

Yeah, I'm at 51 too.  And the Ala statement for counties in line with me, say no accumulations, and Kffc dropped any mention of snow this morning.   Guess I'll have to see what's happening in Ala in the morning, but it's looking warm.  Of course, it wouldn't be the first time I was looking at sunny and warm in the afternoon, and snow the next morning, lol.  T

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thanks - wonder if it's reaching the ground....and if so...any snow?

Yeah, there are heavy enough returns to be snow landing on terra firma :)  But as you watch it'll start to erode as it enters Ala...it'll break your heart, until later tonight, maybe :)   I'll be interested if Huntspatch reports snow when it reaches there. Tony

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yes and i was shocked lol. the sun has come out and its a "gorgeous" spring day (ugh before a supposed snowfall)

If you're looking at some help from upstream I don't have much. We were supposed to be 39-40 today and we are at 46 (up 7 in the last 2 hours) and poised to make a run at 50.

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Have y'all looked at the HRRR?  It has an interesting feature around upstate sc.  Almost like a fetch coming off the atlantic and moving west.  It meets the precip moving in from the west and blows up in NE GA.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsubh/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_subh_ncep_jet:&runTime=2015022316&plotName=cref15min_t6sfc&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6

thanks for sharing...really cool. If you watch that system as it crosses in to GA...the energy shuts off....but it is that western movement energy that causes the real system to get another burst. It looks good for the Upstate as well...at about the hour the loop completes.

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If you're looking at some help from upstream I don't have much. We were supposed to be 39-40 today and we are at 46 (up 7 in the last 2 hours) and poised to make a run at 50.

yeah, i know. thanks for yalls help :whistle: lol (j/k) i looked at some temps to the ne and was completely disgusted.  my enthusiasm has been greatly tempered at this point

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