NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 And yet GFS gives us nothing. Hilarious. Interesting to see so far how GSP and the local media here in the upstate are hugging only the GFS which seems to be an outlier and not paying the least bit of attention to any of the other model solutions that paint a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Definitely not as wet as the NAM, but you can see the idea is there, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The vortex over S Canada continues to trend further north per the 0z GFS. This will allow the s/w from breathing room. The s/w is also trending slower. Well that sounds yet again.. even warmer down here into the Midlands. :| Edit: once again I just posted in the wrong thread. Sorry. I like the idea of some moisture showing up on GFS even for one frame now in this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Someone talk to me here. What am I missing? Local METS here in N Alabama are calling for only a dusting, but that is a lot of moisture moving in to our area tonight, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 And yet GFS gives us nothing. Hilarious. A redo of the other night when it fizzled completely as it got past Clemson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Someone talk to me here. What am I missing? Local METS here in N Alabama are calling for only a dusting, but that is a lot of moisture moving in to our area tonight, no? Please please keep these questions in the banter thread. Someone here in the SE is going to get a substantial Winter storm.. What's going to happen over time is many new posters etc.. will come in asking what will happen in their yards. This will clutter the thread and people will get banned/warnings/etc. When the event is almost here, I think there will be an observation type of thread for these questions too. Edit: For your question.. mets do not like to be wrong.. especially in local media. It's much easier to forecast nothing (or barely anything in your case) and slowly add to the totals over time vs. saying a big event happens and it doesn't. People remember the whole "omg snow storm" cry wolf thing much more than the "marginal threat at best" thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 0z GFS trends valid 3z 2/26. Looking foreward to the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 0z GFS trends valid 3z 2/26. Looking foreward to the ensembles. Really looking like a N. SC / NC / NE. GA type storm if the GFS is right. If it happens, I swear I give up on Winter weather down here again.. I will move with my girlfriend to Montana before I ever suffer another botched Winter threat around here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Really looking like a N. SC / NC / NE. GA type storm if the GFS is right. If it happens, I swear I give up on Winter weather down here again.. I will move with my girlfriend to Montana before I ever suffer another botched Winter threat around here again. dude, you gotta realize climo says you wont get as much snow as nc/north ga. trust me...i get it...i used to live in charleston. but this thing is still very much in play. cae will obv have temp issues more than not, but storms with this track have a history of giving cae and points north a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Really looking like a N. SC / NC / NE. GA type storm if the GFS is right. If it happens, I swear I give up on Winter weather down here again.. I will move with my girlfriend to Montana before I ever suffer another botched Winter threat around here again. Don't forget that your 5 year running snowfall total is much higher than the upstates.... IMO, the midlands have nothing to complain about. That being said, I don't blame you for wanting more... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 00z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 UKMET and SPC WRF...talk about a similar signal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just out of curiosity, what is causing/ mechanism for the blob of precip over NGa? It's been on alot of the models, but seems seperated from main batch along the gulf coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 00z 2m temps are warm, but 850s are good. Question: I noticed there's a HP in VA that slides down into NC. Would/could it be in a decent spot to have any effect on producing a colder outcome? (at least at the surface anyway.) 850mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just out of curiosity, what is causing/ mechanism for the blob of precip over NGa? It's been on alot of the models, but seems seperated from main batch along the gulf coast? The GFS even shows it...there is almost an inverted trof type signature showing up on some models extending up through GA...it may be terrain influenced due to the overrunning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Good news from the King for N GA! The 0Z has 0.1-0.2"qpf vs. 0.1" or under on the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 KCHS has issued a freezing rain advisory from 4am Tuesday morning until 2am Wed AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 KCHS has issued a freezing rain advisory from 4am Tuesday morning until 2am Wed AM.I just saw that. Josh Marthers, local met, says it won't be a big deal as there shouldn't be a lot of moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Northern third of Georgia is under a winter weather Advisory starting this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 435 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 GAZ022>025-031>035-041>045-231745- /O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0007.150224T0700Z-150224T1600Z/ FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT- BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA... LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR 435 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO LAWRENCEVILLE TO HOMER. * HAZARD TYPES...A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. * TIMING...2 AM TO 11 AM. * IMPACTS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY RESULT IN SLICK ROADWAYS AND TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 WWA will go into effect for Atlanta north overnight tonight into tomorrow. EDIT: Dang, I've been ninja'd twice! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA435 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015GAZ022>025-031>035-041>045-231745-/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0007.150224T0700Z-150224T1600Z/FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR435 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM2 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TOATLANTA TO LAWRENCEVILLE TO HOMER.* HAZARD TYPES...A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.* TIMING...2 AM TO 11 AM.* IMPACTS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY RESULT IN SLICKROADWAYS AND TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOWWILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPAREDFOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTIONWHILE DRIVING.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I don't understand ffc's reasoning in leaving out counties around and including athens. soundings are supportive and precip amounts are about the same. In fact, the nam is ever so closer to showing more substantial precip moving into southern portions of north ga associated with the main wave tue morning. I know one thing..i sure hope this ends up like this system since last night. They were underdone all the way back to arkansas last night. A few days ago models were completely dry here..and even up to the last minute the models were way underdone with the rain. Ended up with close to an inch since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I don't understand ffc's reasoning in leaving out counties around and including athens. soundings are supportive and precip amounts are about the same. In fact, the nam is ever so closer to showing more substantial precip moving into southern portions of north ga associated with the main wave tue morning. I know one thing..i sure hope this ends up like this system since last night. They were underdone all the way back to arkansas last night. A few days ago models were completely dry here..and even up to the last minute the models were way underdone with the rain. Ended up with close to an inch since last night. FFC's AFD was saying how they were constantly adjusting up on precip amounts, even through the night. It would be nice if this one does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 the nam is dropping a solid 2 to 4 over a fairly large portion of north ga, in particular nw ga..while ne ga sort of gets the shaft with less overall precip.. however it inches ever so closer to more snow falling along and north of i20 tomorrow morning. If the nam is accurate with that the potential exists for another inch or two falling from atlanta to athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 the nam is dropping a solid 2 to 4 over a fairly large portion of north ga, in particular nw ga..while ne ga sort of gets the shaft with less overall precip.. however it inches ever so closer to more snow falling along and north of i20 tomorrow morning. If the nam is accurate with that the potential exists for another inch or two falling from atlanta to athens. This has the potential to sneak up on some people i feel. NAM looks sweet on this side of town. I think we're looking pretty good for an inch or two. What are surface temps looking like across N GA? What a week this could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 the nam is dropping a solid 2 to 4 over a fairly large portion of north ga, in particular nw ga..while ne ga sort of gets the shaft with less overall precip.. however it inches ever so closer to more snow falling along and north of i20 tomorrow morning. If the nam is accurate with that the potential exists for another inch or two falling from atlanta to athens. well as long as ne ga can get some accumulating snow (an inch or two) i wouldnt consider it the shaft the way this year has gone. we did have a pretty good storm last week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This may be close even for me south of I-20. I'm not expecting much but a dusting would be nice, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 RGEM is fairly bullish for RDU tomorrow for a 1-2" deal. Light stuff of/on tomorrow all day with temps in the mid 20's. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Raleigh&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 RGEM is fairly bullish for RDU tomorrow for a 1-2" deal. Light stuff of/on tomorrow all day with temps in the mid 20's. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Raleigh&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us It's the only one. It should be a good test to see if that model is worth the value placed on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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