SeVa Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z high-res GFS looks decent further East...Probably a mood flake event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You may be too far north for some of these chances Tit will trend nw believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The RGEM seems rather snowy up in NC on the 48 hr frame, in fact I was surprised since the frame before it wasn't so far north and didn't look like it wanted to get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The RGEM seems rather snowy up in NC on the 48 hr frame, in fact I was surprised by how little movement north there was on the last frame before this one. Where's Packbacker? He loves the Rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Where's Packbacker? He loves the Rgem. Nice 1-2" weenie band for us. All-in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The RGEM is the cream of the crop short range, or put it this way it wears/ owns the title belt currently. I posted a radar loop earlier today pointing out how much more legs this item has than what models where showing, And 12 hours latter all I can say is wow, this is gonna end up a way juicer system than any of us or the models thought imo. just need to get the cold back in place. Check out the radar http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice 1-2" weenie band for us. All-in? Yeah man. I've been thinking we might see a bit more precip than the models have been showing. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The RGEM is the cream of the crop short range, or put it this way it wears/ owns the title belt currently. I posted a radar loop earlier today pointing out how much more legs this item has than what models where showing, And 12 hours latter all I can say is wow, this is gonna end up a way juicer system than any of us or the models thought imo. just need to get the cold back in place. Check out the radar http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar It's impressive. WeatherNC says if Dallas scores with these, so do we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice 1-2" weenie band for us. All-in?Man, I got my 1-2 inches of sleet, score 2" from Tuesday upcoming, then 6-8 from Thursday , I got my 12" inch season, that I predicted early in the winter forecast thread! It's in there somewhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice 1-2" weenie band for us. All-in? Be nice to get some snow down, hopefully if it does pan out it will be on the ground for the Thurs storm so everything that falls will stick , of course I would need that last RGEM frame to keep that snow headed east and hold together..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I may be getting ahead of myself but when I look at the 22Z RAP simulated radar, the moisture moving out of LA looks to me to be moving NE straight up I-20, especially in the last 6 hour frames. Wonder if the NAM is going to score? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah man. I've been thinking we might see a bit more precip than the models have been showing. We'll see. Yeah. Unfortunately, it's almost at the end of the RGEM's run, and I would speculate it isn't that accurate at such long ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That's what I was thinking, but it looks like winds from 900mb down are out of the East or Northeast. The 850mb winds do something weird though if you look at that maps. They are strong out of the south over North Ga during the best precip, but there's a relative lull over the upstate where the 850mb winds are more out of the west. This might be where the downsloping is coming into play..(between 850mb and 900mb layers) I think the only we we don't get downslopped (thus dryslotted) is if the moisture is moving from the SW. If it moves from the West or centainly from the NW we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think the only we we don't get downslopped (thus dryslotted) is if the moisture is moving from the SW. If it moves from the West or centainly from the NW we're in trouble.Looks to be coming from west, maybe slightly WSW . It's definately intriguing , if we could get an inch or two, I would be ecstatic, cause I'm sure there are atleast 25 ways we get screwed for Thursday, but, if we get that inch and then the Thursday storm comes to fruition, the Tuesday event should keep it even colder for the Thursday storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Dave Williams, a local TV met here in the Charleston area, is hinting at possible sleet and freezing rain in CHS Tuesday from the SREF plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Man, I got my 1-2 inches of sleet, score 2" from Tuesday upcoming, then 6-8 from Thursday , I got my 12" inch season, that I predicted early in the winter forecast thread! It's in there somewhere! Sitting on 54 right now...hard to imagine any of this happening. If we can score 2" Tues and then another 8" Thurs...that would be one of all-time weather miracles in the upstate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Sitting on 54 right now...hard to imagine any of this happening. If we can score 2" Tues and then another 8" Thurs...that would be one of all-time weather miracles in the upstate! Well its definitely possible, but probably not likely. Today has been a torch of sorts considering the entire past week, and we cool back down tomorrow (but not to where we were). If we happen to get something Tuesday, I think the only way it would help for Thursday is if it is still on the ground for Thursday, which might help keep surface temps down for whatever precip fell. If it just melted right away, I don't think it would matter much one way or the other; UNLESS it affects the upper air pattern in such as way that better sets up a Thursday storm. That too is possible. Perhaps a Tuesday system could help pull down more cold air for a Thursday system or certainly affect the placement of a cold High or the southern Low. Will definitely be interesting to watch unfold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nam still looks good, maybe even a little better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This event has potential to over perform with the soundings as cold as they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Based on the 0Z run of the NAM, (so far) it seems that an awesome overrunning scenario is taking shape before the big storm on Wednesday! This is a CLASSIC setup for folks in the Southeast. Loving where this is heading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 30 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 30 hours out... Not gonna lie, I'm starting to get excited about this one. Seems like every NAM run it gets wetter. I really hope temps cooperate cause that's my only concern right now. Would like to see the GFS get on board here in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not gonna lie, I'm starting to get excited about this one. Seems like every NAM run it gets wetter. I really hope temps cooperate cause that's my only concern right now. Would like to see the GFS get on board here in a few minutes. i am starting to as well. its looking pretty good for some frozen stuff in n ga tues. the 0z nam has some cold temps getting in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 BUFKIT puts down close to 2" in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 BUFKIT puts down close to 2" in CLT. And yet GFS gives us nothing. Hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 FWIW, the 00z GFS is okay with the idea of some flurries tuesday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yea, GFS is coming around and is now dropping over 1/10th of inch of liquid in parts of Northeast Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 00z GFS folds to the solution that everything was showing. Good trends for this event on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The vortex over S Canada continues to trend further north per the 0z GFS. This will allow the s/w from breathing room. The s/w is also trending slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The RGEM did not run tonight, it always picks great times to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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