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Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015


MAG5035

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Amazing how much colder you often are than my location. Bottomed out at -2.9 here. Am assuming you're nestled down in a low spot somewhere outside of Bellefonte.

Actually just a couple hundred yards from the courthouse. Being in a valley in a valley makes the whole town a frost hollow, basically. Sometimes 20 degrees lower than UNV.

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great videos guys.  love snow squalls..especially when I'm in the mts.  Heres hoping the trends today seem to go the right way for once.  Voyager,wmpswx and myself all encompass most of the snow hole (as usual), so heres hoping its filled w/ some white fluffy stuff.

 

Nut

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great videos guys.  love snow squalls..especially when I'm in the mts.  Heres hoping the trends today seem to go the right way for once.  Voyager,wmpswx and myself all encompass most of the snow hole (as usual), so heres hoping its filled w/ some white fluffy stuff.

 

Nut

how's the trails up north?

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You guys should be good for trail riding, we still have about an 8 or 9 inch base here with very little falling other than the squalls. I'd imagine well over a foot of depth up in Tioga and Potter counties.

heard it was getting thin in a few spots on the trails from sled traffic.  plus this time of year the sun can do a number on the south facing slopes.  I'm really hoping this midweek system trends weaker and colder.  I realize a pure snow event for midweek isn't in the cards, I'm just hoping to limit the damage to the snowpack.  plus the trailing energy may have some surprises after the cold air comes back in.

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12z NAM still looks good for snow in the LSV.

The 5 inch line in the LSV runs along the PA turnpike. About 6 inches

just to the north of the turnpike in most of Dauphin, Perry and Lebanon counties. York and Lancaster look closer to 4 inches.

Voyager, the 12z NAM had ALL of your county covered in 6 inches.

The snow hole this run looks to run the I-99 corridor from

Altoona to State College up to Williamsport. This area still looks to

be around 3 inches.

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12z NAM still looks good for snow in the LSV.

The 5 inch line in the LSV runs along the PA turnpike. About 6 inches

just to the north of the turnpike in most of Dauphin, Perry and Lebanon counties. York and Lancaster look closer to 4 inches.

Voyager, the 12z NAM had ALL of your county covered in 6 inches.

The snow hole this run looks to run the I-99 corridor from

Altoona to State College up to Williamsport. This area still looks to

be around 3 inches.

We just got NAM'ed. Hope it is right. 

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Thoroughly confused as to why the NWS thinks mixing even up to State College. Just looked at the NAM soundings on Twisterdata for Lewistown (was being conservative and choosing the location to the south and east), and neither of them show any time when any part of the sounding is above freezing. On the NAM, the warmest level is about 900hPa, and it only barely kisses the 0C line for 3-6 hours. On the GFS, the nearest sounding is to the northwest, and the warmest level is at the surface, and again, only just barely kisses the 0C line. The sounding to the east, near Lewisburg, has the warmest level at around 900hPa, but doesn't even reach the 0C line. Only the sounding south of Harrisburg gets above freezing, and is actually a rain sounding down there.

 

And again, the NAM sounding was for near Lewistown.

 

Even the SREF plumes, which notoriously have warm members, suggest by far the biggest chance of all-snow up here.

 

Does the NWS think the models are vastly underdoing the warm air advection aloft?

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Fantastic last weekend. Home this weekend. Hoping to be back next weekend for last hurrah. How bout you?

we're not up either.  we had sled issues last weekend.  needed a new stator which sucks big time.  but the sled is fixed now.  we're just headed out to pick it up then we're headed to Mile Run to test her out.  I'm hoping this midweek thing isn't too detrimental to great trails we've had for the last several weeks.  I still think that trailing energy needs to be watched carefully.  many surprises with that I'm thinking.

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Thoroughly confused as to why the NWS thinks mixing even up to State College. Just looked at the NAM soundings on Twisterdata for Lewistown (was being conservative and choosing the location to the south and east), and neither of them show any time when any part of the sounding is above freezing. On the NAM, the warmest level is about 900hPa, and it only barely kisses the 0C line for 3-6 hours. On the GFS, the nearest sounding is to the northwest, and the warmest level is at the surface, and again, only just barely kisses the 0C line. The sounding to the east, near Lewisburg, has the warmest level at around 900hPa, but doesn't even reach the 0C line. Only the sounding south of Harrisburg gets above freezing, and is actually a rain sounding down there.

 

And again, the NAM sounding was for near Lewistown.

 

Does the NWS think the models are vastly underdoing the warm air advection aloft?

 

I like this site:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html

 

I type in my lon/lat and get the sounding. Neither the NAM or the GFS get above 0c at any layer.

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Region-wide WWA issued

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.MORE SNOW AND ICE HEADED TO CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-

056>059-063>066-011400-

/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0018.150301T1200Z-150302T1200Z/

POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-

BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-

TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-

SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-

PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COUDERSPORT...RENOVO...PHILIPSBURG...

STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...

LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...

CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...

WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...

SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...

HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...

LANCASTER

1214 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ENDLESS

MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES...EXCEPT 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS

THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A LIGHT GLAZE TO BETWEEN ONE

AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER

SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING

AND CONTINUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR

CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FROM

SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END IN THE PRE DAWN

HOURS MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM SNOW OR SLUSH COVERED ROADS AND

POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH

CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY WHICH SEE

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION..UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND

WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.

USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO

TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE OR MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

STATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]...

POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET

@NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X.

&&

$$

DEVOIR

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