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Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015


MAG5035

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Next week looks rather wintry for my area. Haven't looked at models closely, but CTP seems to think more white than wet...

 

  • Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Monday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  • Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.
  • Tuesday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Tuesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Wednesday A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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12z Euro op and control run both crushed the LSV with over 1 foot of snow.

The good news is that the Ensemble mean also had a strong snow signal.

The mean produced around 6 inches for the LSV.

Almost all of the 51 ensemble members produced at least 3 inches of snow. A few members looked like the op and control run.

Lots of time to go, but the good news is the bullseye for now was south if us.

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Wow...just to show how central PA misses out on everything. This is from DT on Facebook. I have't seen thundersnow since 1996 and yet Boston, NYC, Philly, Chicago, and now even North Carolina get it.

 

 

thunder snow storm reported several areas in North Central North Carolina ..raleigh garner ...holly springs swift creek /lake wheeler

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Wow...just to show how central PA misses out on everything. This is from DT on Facebook. I have't seen thundersnow since 1996 and yet Boston, NYC, Philly, Chicago, and now even North Carolina get it.

I ordered up thundersnow for a Valentines gift to my wife on 2-14-15, not long after the squall hit , BOOM! True Story..............

 

a little snow keeps wanting to show up for tomorrow

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Wow...just to show how central PA misses out on everything. This is from DT on Facebook. I have't seen thundersnow since 1996 and yet Boston, NYC, Philly, Chicago, and now even North Carolina get it.

I know someone who lives in North Carolina. They are reporting 4" of snow this morning.

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I changed my avatar to Thundersnow this year so that it would make it happen. Many areas have seen it this Winter but not me yet.

 

Best thundersnow ever for me was during the Blizzard of 93. I had lot's of thunder and lightning for about a 3 hour period late in the afternoon of that storm. 

 

One of my favorite thundersnow events is the March 3-4, 1999 storm when a low pressure rapidly deepened moving from VA thru eastern PA and up the Hudson Valley in NY. It's a bit of an obscure one, but some of the western upstate NY folks probably remember it quite well as it put down nearly 2 feet in about 6 hours with blizzard conditions up there. Here it started as a pretty decent rainstorm the night of the 3rd and flipped over to snow around 9pm or so dropping a couple an inch or two by the time I went to bed.. nothing too crazy. Then I got woke up around 2-3 in the morning to thundersnow and ridiculous winds. The winds were actually bad enough that it took the power out. The thunder and lightning lasted off and on for at least an hour and it was a near whiteout at times through about 7-8am. It dropped about a 3-6" type snow here but it would've been impossible to measure with the wind. It's probably about the only time I remember seeing legitimate blizzard conditions here. The '93 storm happened on my 7th birthday so I don't remember it as well as I wish I did.

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Is there nothing to discuss regarding the upcoming period between this Sunday and next Wednesday?  I keep checking in hoping I will see discussion and there's virtually nothing.  Did last Saturday do everybody in?

 

Yesterday '93Blizzard said the Euro was showing a foot of snow here next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Is that totally gone today?

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Is there nothing to discuss regarding the upcoming period between this Sunday and next Wednesday?  I keep checking in hoping I will see discussion and there's virtually nothing.  Did last Saturday do everybody in?

 

Yesterday '93Blizzard said the Euro was showing a foot of snow here next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Is that totally gone today?

 

Models really changed their tune on that Tuesday/Wed event today, with all of the major 12z suite showing a lakes cutter. They seem to be starting to focus in on a possible snow/mix event Sunday for and then this cutter for Tues/Wed. For Sunday models are really focusing QPF on the western half of the state and a snow bullseye in west-central PA in particular with this weak wave. Precip attm seems to really get eroded in the Sus Valley.

 

Much more consolidated system on the guidance for Tuesday/Wed system with the GFS and Euro bringing about a 990ish low into the lakes and a pretty solid warm air push (8ºC or better of 850 air into a good part of the state). Ensemble means look a little bit cooler and weaker but are still warm and have the low cutting. For now it looks like there could be initial precip issues and then plain rain. We'll see how that evolves, I'm feeling more confident about this one cutting than anything that occurs over the weekend.. as I figured the cold air would put up a fight. A stronger system coming to fruition next week would probably cut with the solidly -PNA and generally +NAO. 

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