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Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015


MAG5035

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still stuck on sleet in hershey.   looking at radar i hope we can switch over before heavier stuff west comes in.  thinking mdt hershey area average around 7 inches till this is all said and done.  i think abc27 is crazy holding to that forecast.... we shall see

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flakes starting to mix in here in Ephrata.  No pingers yet.  Liking the latest runs showing a ramp up in potential.  Lets hope for some last minute suprises...for the good.  

Good luck gang.

 

Nut

upside late in the game would be different so far this season... fingers crossed

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i will say i have abc27 app on my phone, they have been very good this winter given the difficult forecasts.  i just wish they would give some justification for theit call, none of the guidance supports what they are predicting.  do they have the crystal ball?

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Well, looks like I won't be correct with my midnight changeover prediction.  At 11:50pm I have 100% sleet, with a current temp of 33.8 and continuing to fall slowly.  I'm going to melt down my sleet at midnight and then turn in.  I know I will likely not be able to keep sleeping in the morning so I will try to get some in on this end while it isn't yet very exciting.

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Holy jet streak, we're quite well placed in the right entrance region of it. Got two mesoanalysis captures, the first one has color filled 300mb winds with divergence and second map has same color fill with 700-500 average omega (lift). Also a ribbon of 850-700mb frontogenesis stretching from Kentucky up into the southeastern half of PA.

 

Per the second map southern and eastern PA has some lifting going on, further southwest in western KY there is some more significant omega values.. coninciding with where they are getting hammered with 1-2" hour snows right now. Decent lift in that 700-500mb layer is likely going to be more essential to efficiency of the snow accums, especially as the column continues to cool.. since that will likely be where more ideal snow growth temps will be residing. Just gotta get the LSV over to snow, and for LWX radar hasn't shown much signs of collapsing to the south and east yet with it's mixing region. Otherwise in terms of precip placement, SW PA and most of eastern PA look pretty well positioned for decent amounts that should at least meet CTP's latest (but probably not last lol) snowmap. Now to just get rid of the I-99 sucker hole, NW flow at the surface looks to be killing precip in the UNV area right now. 

 

300mb with divergence

post-1507-0-23980600-1425532572_thumb.pn

 

300mb with 700-500 avg omega

post-1507-0-56912600-1425532589_thumb.pn

 

850-700mb mean frontogenesis

post-1507-0-41958100-1425532560_thumb.pn

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Holy jet streak, we're quite well placed in the right entrance region of it. Got two mesoanalysis captures, the first one has color filled 300mb winds with divergence and second map has same color fill with 700-500 average omega (lift). Also a ribbon of 850-700mb frontogenesis stretching from Kentucky up into the southeastern half of PA.

Per the second map southern and eastern PA has some lifting going on, further southwest in western KY there is some more significant omega values.. coninciding with where they are getting hammered with 1-2" hour snows right now. Decent lift in that 700-500mb layer is likely going to be more essential to efficiency of the snow accums, especially as the column continues to cool.. since that will likely be where more ideal snow growth temps will be residing. Just gotta get the LSV over to snow, and for LWX radar hasn't shown much signs of collapsing to the south and east yet with it's mixing region. Otherwise in terms of precip placement, SW PA and most of eastern PA look pretty well positioned for decent amounts that should at least meet CTP's latest (but probably not last lol) snowmap. Now to just get rid of the I-99 sucker hole, NW flow at the surface looks to be killing precip in the UNV area right now.

300mb with divergence

2015-03-04_2331.png

300mb with 700-500 avg omega

2015-03-04_2336.png

850-700mb mean frontogenesis

2015-03-05_0011.png

Beautiful Mag. I've been singing about this for awhile now. That's why I kept sticking with my guns on the precip still being good for snow in the LSV. Still holding my 4-8" for York/Lancaster with higher near the border. 5-9" for Mappy and the Northern MD crew
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Beautiful Mag. I've been singing about this for awhile now. That's why I kept sticking with my guns on the precip still being good for snow in the LSV. Still holding my 4-8" for York/Lancaster with higher near the border. 5-9" for Mappy and the Northern MD crew

Guys, is that frontogenisis what is causing the amazing band of heavy snow to set up over the same area from basically far western Kentucky to Morgantown. It is quite amazing to look at on the great lakes NOAA radar.

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Beautiful Mag. I've been singing about this for awhile now. That's why I kept sticking with my guns on the precip still being good for snow in the LSV. Still holding my 4-8" for York/Lancaster with higher near the border. 5-9" for Mappy and the Northern MD crew

 

Also saw a met post this over in the Ohio Valley/Lakes thread (DTX is Detroit)... 237 mph!

 

206kt winds at 213mb with the 00z DTX sounding.

 

 

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Guys, is that frontogenisis what is causing the amazing band of heavy snow to set up over the same area from basically far western Kentucky to Morgantown. It is quite amazing to look at on the great lakes NOAA radar.

 

It's likely having a hand in it, and it conincides with the new meso discussion area for the heavy snow reaching into SW PA. Can also see some heavier bands of snow starting to show up south of Pittsburgh on the PBZ radar. 

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It's likely having a hand in it, and it conincides with the new meso discussion area for the heavy snow reaching into SW PA. Can also see some heavier bands of snow starting to show up south of Pittsburgh on the PBZ radar.

Yep..I would imagine Morgantown is getting crushed right now. Really wish this would have happened during my friends' year

Y get away in the nemacolin/chalk hill/Farmington area. Probably would be in line for 6-12 inches. At least I got the squall line while there.

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Also saw a met post this over in the Ohio Valley/Lakes thread (DTX is Detroit)... 237 mph!

Oh wow. That is beyond impressive. It's like an uber jet max. Sit square in the right entrance region of that and you'll be good to go. I'm liking the fact everything is coming together so far.

Btw, this Friday morning is going to be incredibly cold for March. I'll be heading north to the Northeast Storm conference in Saratoga Springs, NY. From one cold spot to another haha

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That hole in the precip around I-99 appears to be expanding. Not seeing any below-freezing temps to our west until you get back towards Altoona. Oh well. I could worry about it all night or I can go to sleep. I'll go with the latter since I might be driving my kid to school as scheduled. 

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