Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sleet continues here in Marysville, with a few flakes starting to mix in. My spotlight is on and I am waiting for it to start to rip snow any time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 still stuck on sleet in hershey. looking at radar i hope we can switch over before heavier stuff west comes in. thinking mdt hershey area average around 7 inches till this is all said and done. i think abc27 is crazy holding to that forecast.... we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Last post before bed. Have to work at 8. Snow falling nicely, 31.4 and have picked up an inch so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Definitely sleet in there now here in York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 flakes starting to mix in here in Ephrata. No pingers yet. Liking the latest runs showing a ramp up in potential. Lets hope for some last minute suprises...for the good. Good luck gang. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 flakes starting to mix in here in Ephrata. No pingers yet. Liking the latest runs showing a ramp up in potential. Lets hope for some last minute suprises...for the good. Good luck gang. Nut upside late in the game would be different so far this season... fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 So does Abc27 stick with there coating-3" call from the MD border north at 11? The Gfs and euro show 10 to 11 inches here now. The 3 inch call is I don't know what it is LOL. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 i will say i have abc27 app on my phone, they have been very good this winter given the difficult forecasts. i just wish they would give some justification for theit call, none of the guidance supports what they are predicting. do they have the crystal ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 So does Abc27 stick with there coating-3" call from the MD border north at 11? Sent from my iPhone Yes, they still had the same snow map... Unbelievable. NBC 8 had a much better map the matches up with guidance And said 4-7 inches for most of the LSV, with a little more towards MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Horst says changeover delayed for Lanco. He was saying we'd be snow by midnight, now he's saying by 4am. Uh oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It looks like I'm back to all rain after prolonged mainly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Well, looks like I won't be correct with my midnight changeover prediction. At 11:50pm I have 100% sleet, with a current temp of 33.8 and continuing to fall slowly. I'm going to melt down my sleet at midnight and then turn in. I know I will likely not be able to keep sleeping in the morning so I will try to get some in on this end while it isn't yet very exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Horst says changeover delayed for Lanco. He was saying we'd be snow by midnight, now he's saying by 4am. Uh oh...Not sure about this in York, heavy sleet with big fat wet flakes mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Man, that fetch all the way to Texas is just beautiful. Also some really impressive returns on the NWS radar for what looks like Gettysburg to carlisle area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Holy jet streak, we're quite well placed in the right entrance region of it. Got two mesoanalysis captures, the first one has color filled 300mb winds with divergence and second map has same color fill with 700-500 average omega (lift). Also a ribbon of 850-700mb frontogenesis stretching from Kentucky up into the southeastern half of PA. Per the second map southern and eastern PA has some lifting going on, further southwest in western KY there is some more significant omega values.. coninciding with where they are getting hammered with 1-2" hour snows right now. Decent lift in that 700-500mb layer is likely going to be more essential to efficiency of the snow accums, especially as the column continues to cool.. since that will likely be where more ideal snow growth temps will be residing. Just gotta get the LSV over to snow, and for LWX radar hasn't shown much signs of collapsing to the south and east yet with it's mixing region. Otherwise in terms of precip placement, SW PA and most of eastern PA look pretty well positioned for decent amounts that should at least meet CTP's latest (but probably not last lol) snowmap. Now to just get rid of the I-99 sucker hole, NW flow at the surface looks to be killing precip in the UNV area right now. 300mb with divergence 300mb with 700-500 avg omega 850-700mb mean frontogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Holy jet streak, we're quite well placed in the right entrance region of it. Got two mesoanalysis captures, the first one has color filled 300mb winds with divergence and second map has same color fill with 700-500 average omega (lift). Also a ribbon of 850-700mb frontogenesis stretching from Kentucky up into the southeastern half of PA. Per the second map southern and eastern PA has some lifting going on, further southwest in western KY there is some more significant omega values.. coninciding with where they are getting hammered with 1-2" hour snows right now. Decent lift in that 700-500mb layer is likely going to be more essential to efficiency of the snow accums, especially as the column continues to cool.. since that will likely be where more ideal snow growth temps will be residing. Just gotta get the LSV over to snow, and for LWX radar hasn't shown much signs of collapsing to the south and east yet with it's mixing region. Otherwise in terms of precip placement, SW PA and most of eastern PA look pretty well positioned for decent amounts that should at least meet CTP's latest (but probably not last lol) snowmap. Now to just get rid of the I-99 sucker hole, NW flow at the surface looks to be killing precip in the UNV area right now. 300mb with divergence 2015-03-04_2331.png 300mb with 700-500 avg omega 2015-03-04_2336.png 850-700mb mean frontogenesis 2015-03-05_0011.png Beautiful Mag. I've been singing about this for awhile now. That's why I kept sticking with my guns on the precip still being good for snow in the LSV. Still holding my 4-8" for York/Lancaster with higher near the border. 5-9" for Mappy and the Northern MD crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 We've gone over to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Beautiful Mag. I've been singing about this for awhile now. That's why I kept sticking with my guns on the precip still being good for snow in the LSV. Still holding my 4-8" for York/Lancaster with higher near the border. 5-9" for Mappy and the Northern MD crew Guys, is that frontogenisis what is causing the amazing band of heavy snow to set up over the same area from basically far western Kentucky to Morgantown. It is quite amazing to look at on the great lakes NOAA radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Beautiful Mag. I've been singing about this for awhile now. That's why I kept sticking with my guns on the precip still being good for snow in the LSV. Still holding my 4-8" for York/Lancaster with higher near the border. 5-9" for Mappy and the Northern MD crew Also saw a met post this over in the Ohio Valley/Lakes thread (DTX is Detroit)... 237 mph! 206kt winds at 213mb with the 00z DTX sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Guys, is that frontogenisis what is causing the amazing band of heavy snow to set up over the same area from basically far western Kentucky to Morgantown. It is quite amazing to look at on the great lakes NOAA radar. It's likely having a hand in it, and it conincides with the new meso discussion area for the heavy snow reaching into SW PA. Can also see some heavier bands of snow starting to show up south of Pittsburgh on the PBZ radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It's likely having a hand in it, and it conincides with the new meso discussion area for the heavy snow reaching into SW PA. Can also see some heavier bands of snow starting to show up south of Pittsburgh on the PBZ radar. Yep..I would imagine Morgantown is getting crushed right now. Really wish this would have happened during my friends' year Y get away in the nemacolin/chalk hill/Farmington area. Probably would be in line for 6-12 inches. At least I got the squall line while there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Also saw a met post this over in the Ohio Valley/Lakes thread (DTX is Detroit)... 237 mph!Oh wow. That is beyond impressive. It's like an uber jet max. Sit square in the right entrance region of that and you'll be good to go. I'm liking the fact everything is coming together so far. Btw, this Friday morning is going to be incredibly cold for March. I'll be heading north to the Northeast Storm conference in Saratoga Springs, NY. From one cold spot to another haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Some flakes mixing in Lemoyne. Cars covered with a thin layer of sleet. Here's hoping I can get out of driving my kid to school tomorrow! 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I have big fat sloppy flakes mixing in down here now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Already down to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 about 50/50 sleet and snow bombs... trying so so hard to accumulate but sensor at house down to 32.7 F. Have a dusting on everything, just wish we would dip below 32 soon to really take advantage of these flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Snow has now turned to sleet. I actually went straight from rain to snow, this is my first bout of sleet from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Mostly snow, with a little sleet still mixed in Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Euro holds serve and still has 9 to 10 inches on the Mason Dixon. Looks good further north. Maybe CTP jumped the gun with Advisory downgrades up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That hole in the precip around I-99 appears to be expanding. Not seeing any below-freezing temps to our west until you get back towards Altoona. Oh well. I could worry about it all night or I can go to sleep. I'll go with the latter since I might be driving my kid to school as scheduled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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