djr5001 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Even UKMET is wet somewhat similar to the Euro... which I feel I can trust the combo of the two more than the GFS... just continues the big question of when does the cold air make its move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Although I'm not taking any class this semester and I'm home, I do hope you guys up at Millersville cash in with at least 6". Many of my friends are itching for a big one and have been really frustrated all winter.Yeah. At this point I'll take 5". I've already seen close to 10" on the last event while I was home. We've been close but no cigar this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 DC maybe, but southern PA no. We are average at best right now at Millersville. This should put us just above average for the year which I'll gladly take. Winter was brutal starting off. Baltimore is doing better than southern PA I was going to post the same thing. we are slightly starved down here in the LSV. I will add that I do like the current fetch of the moisture coming out of N Texas and Okie land. That looks like if it holds together, thats our "stuff". Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Even UKMET is wet somewhat similar to the Euro... which I feel I can trust the combo of the two more than the GFS... just continues the big question of when does the cold air make its move When the UKMET and EURO are going consistent, it's hard to bet against them. Still, the GFS could score a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A 1:46 PM refresh of CTP's WSW wording shows 5 - 7 for the southern tier. Looks like a few counties north dropped off to a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A 1:46 PM refresh of CTP's WSW wording shows 5 - 7 for the southern tier. Looks like a few counties north dropped off to a WWA. showing Cumberland in a WSW- 4-8" When you look at this loop, doesn't it look like it just goes right over top of us? http://mp1.met.psu.e..._US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I really like the Sterling snow graphics page. Wish State College would do that. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I really like the Sterling snow graphics page. Wish State College would do that. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Sterling's snow graphics are part of a national pilot program that will eventually be used by all other weather offices. I believe Sterling, New Orleans, (Mt. Holly?) and Nashville are the pilot offices right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sterling's snow graphics are part of a national pilot program that will eventually be used by all other weather offices. I believe Sterling, New Orleans, (Mt. Holly?) and Nashville are the pilot offices right now. Great, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runupthescore Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I was going to post the same thing. we are slightly starved down here in the LSV. Same story all winter. Hey, we're going to get 10 inches of sn---oh, wait, it's going to be 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting to note, even though the 18z NAM came back north, it initialized with a 1036 high in western N Dakota....SPC obs have a 1032 high in the same location/time. Pressure differences exist all the way down toward the baroclinic zone. 18z NAM at 19z: 19z suface obs: This may have implications down the road...keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting to note, even though the 18z NAM came back north, it initialized with a 1036 high in western N Dakota....SPC obs have a 1032 high in the same location/time. Pressure differences exist all the way down toward the baroclinic zone. 18z NAM at 19z: 19z suface obs: This may have implications down the road...keep an eye on it. So, weaker Hi = Less squeeze to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting to note, even though the 18z NAM came back north, it initialized with a 1036 high in western N Dakota....SPC obs have a 1032 high in the same location/time. Pressure differences exist all the way down toward the baroclinic zone. 18z NAM at 19z: NAM.PNG 19z suface obs: obs.PNG This may have implications down the road...keep an eye on it. What possible implications might this cause & why? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting to note, even though the 18z NAM came back north, it initialized with a 1036 high in western N Dakota....SPC obs have a 1032 high in the same location/time. Pressure differences exist all the way down toward the baroclinic zone. 18z NAM at 19z: NAM.PNG 19z suface obs: obs.PNG This may have implications down the road...keep an eye on it. Very interesting. Thanks for pointing that out. Even if it only means a slight northward expansion of the precipitation given the tight gradient it would make a difference for someone on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So, weaker Hi = Less squeeze to the south? Possibly - or more expansive northern edge to the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Very interesting. Thanks for pointing that out. Even if it only means a slight northward expansion of the precipitation given the tight gradient it would make a difference for someone on the fringe. Exactly. Now - it may all come out in the wash, but the GFS had a 1038 high there around this time while the foreign (northern-most) guidance had it closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I might be totally wrong, but I think the lsv sits in a nice spot for this event. We get a few inches from the first batch after the transition. Then we get a few more from the second batch. My biggest concern is when does it actually flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Have been out all day due to work orientation...I guess in general, no changes as to where we were last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Has anyone heard from Voyager? It's been a while since I've seen him post and that's unusual for him. Has this storm caused him to give up completely this winter (I say that in jest!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Has anyone heard from Voyager? It's been a while since I've seen him post and that's unusual for him. Has this storm caused him to give up completely this winter (I say that in jest!).Posted last night : To bed @ 7:00 for a 3:00am start.If there was a little north movement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Posted last night : To bed @ 7:00 for a 3:00am start. If there was a little north movement... Go little stretch of 0.5" running the 81 corridor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Exactly. Now - it may all come out in the wash, but the GFS had a 1038 high there around this time while the foreign (northern-most) guidance had it closer to reality. Hmm that's an interesting ob, we'll have to see what happens. HRRR and RAP actually are looking pretty good overall in terms of general precip extent into PA but there's some more local issues to resolve (I-99 sucker hole) and perhaps wasting some QPF on differing p-types in the LSV. Scrutinized a bit with models vs mesoanalysis, I do notice that 925mb temps are running notably warmer in the LSV and northern Mid-Atlantic. 12z NAM hour 9 was way too cold at that level where DC for instance was around +7C and the mesoanalysis has +11 poking up right now at 21z. Looks like the 18z NAM initialized that better, which might've attributed to it bumping north a little bit. Just finally starting to mix over to snow here in the last hour, which after watching things overnight.. I would've never thought it would've took that long. I wonder about how much ends up getting wasted further southeast. Tough forecast and high bust potential. 19z RAP 18z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Added 0.92" of liquid to the snow pack yesterday and overnight. The snow tonight will likely bring it to right around 4"...hopefully a slow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Look at that moisture... http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=he Previous post on the north movement. I wasn't talking for me. I Would like to see the South Pa. Boyz's get a good hit. Edit: Good post Mag & AllWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My guess: Lancaster: 4.5" York: 6.75" Harrisburg: 3.75" State College: 1" Williamsport: .25" Altoona: 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hmm that's an interesting ob, we'll have to see what happens. HRRR and RAP actually are looking pretty good overall in terms of general precip extent into PA but there's some more local issues to resolve (I-99 sucker hole) and perhaps wasting some QPF on differing p-types in the LSV. Scrutinized a bit with models vs mesoanalysis, I do notice that 925mb temps are running notably warmer in the LSV and northern Mid-Atlantic. 12z NAM hour 9 was way too cold at that level where DC for instance was around +7C and the mesoanalysis has +11 poking up right now at 21z. Looks like the 18z NAM initialized that better, which might've attributed to it bumping north a little bit. Just finally starting to mix over to snow here in the last hour, which after watching things overnight.. I would've never thought it would've took that long. I wonder about how much ends up getting wasted further southeast. Tough forecast and high bust potential. 19z RAP acsnw_t3sfc_f18.png 18z HRRR acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png The 18z GFS seems to have initialized that surface ridge better. Also, low running along the front is just a touch stronger. Result is a MUCH farther north QPF field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 ...Well then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 ...Well then. Ain't over till she sings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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