Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015

[MAG5035]

A shot at 50s-60s next week before cooling back off? At the very least, the extreme cold's days are numbered.

 

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus02222015.html

 

Yea we'll lose the bite in the arctic cold after today with our best shot at widespread negatives being tonight. A reinforcment later in the week will ensure we'll stay solidly below average temp wise and perhaps some more negative lows Thursday and Friday night. Overall not as nasty as last week, but considering this is the last week of February.. still a significant departure from climo.

 

I don't look for 50-60s in most of our particular region if the pattern does in fact shift a bit and allow for milder temps and perhaps a cutting event. Models are digging into the four corners region and rising the heights in the east allowing for us to get into the warmer side of a frontal type/overrunning look like we just had. This is also the same kind of business the models had around this lead time last week, so i'm not biting on anything yet. 0z Euro's your guy if any decent warmup makes it into PA (+10ºC 850 air into southern Penn). Still seemed to look mixy at the beginning of the event regardless. GFS was much less enthused with mild air and looked like more of a fight/messy event and potential northern Penn snow and a quicker return back to colder. Talking like 168ish hours here so we'll just have to see how it evolves this week.

 

To be honest, the GFS type of scenario seems more realistic to me right now. At this point mother nature's just gonna have to prove she can throw a big time warm up into the Northeast to get me to bet against a muted one or an outright denial the way this winter has gone since January. Obviously, things will eventually change and we are certainly due a change in this remarkably persistent pattern we have had. There are some changes afoot, but I don't feel this thing next week is gonna be anything wholesale quite yet.. while we certainly might end up with a warmer event.  Models are projecting quite a negative PNA so more cold could get dumped into the west in time and moderate things some our way. That doesn't necessarily mean it won't be cold enough to snow but that boundary line is going to be much closer to our region.  With that in mind, If we do end up in position for something as the week wears on I don't think it's going to end up all the way in VA/MD/DC this time.

[PennMan]

If the forecast lows for Bellefonte pan out through the end of the week, I will record more lows at or below 0° than last year, with 12/28 days in February hitting 0° or below. What a month.

[canderson]

It isn't warm today.

[Itstrainingtime]

It isn't warm today.

It was still a balmy 31 when I left for work at 5am. Now, 4 hours later, it's 21.

[Rick G]

IT was 16 when I came to work at 8:15 am. There were some major patches of ice on the roads.

[Itunis]

If the forecast lows for Bellefonte pan out through the end of the week, I will record more lows at or below 0° than last year, with 12/28 days in February hitting 0° or below. What a month.

It looks like we're gonna struggle to stay at or above 10 during the day today. I have my fingers crossed for a final decent storm and then a March 2012 style warmup.

[Voyager]

It was 28 when I left my house this morning, and according to my weather app it says it's 12. I'm currently at the Allentown Service Plaza on the turnpike, so not sure if it's true or not. I'll find out soon enough.

[sauss06]

yeah its cold. For some reason the cold is bothering me today. I even had to put my coat on when i was cleaning up/plowing our back lot. Norma;;y i'm not affected to much by the temps, one way or another.

Tonight looks chilly too, back to single digits overnight?

[PennMan]

It looks like we're gonna struggle to stay at or above 10 during the day today. I have my fingers crossed for a final decent storm and then a March 2012 style warmup.

Nasty today for sure.  Hopefully not quite that kind of warmup (bad for early blooming trees and such) but some dry days in the 50-60s would be great.

[Santa Clause]

Sorry guys but this is the time of the year where I only really root for solid warning events and start rooting against 1 to 3 deals( unless its a snow squall). Time to go big or go home.

[Itstrainingtime]

Sorry guys but this is the time of the year where I only really root for solid warning events and start rooting against 1 to 3 deals( unless its a snow squall). Time to go big or go home.

I agree with you. Even on cold days this time of year, nuisance snows are history in about 2 hours down here. For anything to last more than a day or so, it better be a lot...

[Eskimo Joe]

Sorry guys but this is the time of the year where I only really root for solid warning events and start rooting against 1 to 3 deals( unless its a snow squall). Time to go big or go home.

We are also getting to that time of the year when you need the bigger events for meaningful accumulations, especially during the peak of daylight.  

[Itunis]

Looks like I'll be watching the snow threat(s) for the Southeast this week. The way that everything has to setup just perfectly combined with the excitement make that sub forum pretty entertaining to read when there's a decent storm brewing.

We managed to crack the teens here, at 14 with the bright sun it's not too terrible out. I've noticed that late winter here seems to have a lot more sunny/mostly sunny days as compared to early winter, would that be related at all to Erie freezing up and not generating those low stratocumulus clouds?

[Rick G]

Keep in mind the big granddaddy of snow was in March of 93. IF you are too young to remember it,  IT was a great storm, it affected everyone here and it left a mark that only one storm has equaled. (Jan 96)

[Eskimo Joe]

Keep in mind the big granddaddy of snow was in March of 93. IF you are too young to remember it,  IT was a great storm, it affected everyone here and it left a mark that only one storm has equaled. (Jan 96)

I was 6 when that happened.  I hold out hope for winter until March 15th, after that I'm in spring mode.

[Rick G]

another youngster...

I was 32. I had snow banks up to 6 feet tall. best part was falling off my deck onto 30 inches of snow. I remember shoveling a path to the car and two hours later is was gone. you couldn't see the path.

 

 

I was 6 when that happened.  I hold out hope for winter until March 15th, after that I'm in spring mode.

[Santa Clause]

I was 3 at the time.

[anotherman]

I was in my senior year of high school. I went to bed and we had rain and wind. When I woke up, the snow was blowing off the side of the house and the drifts had covered up the front door.

[Itstrainingtime]

I was 28 in '93. Best storm ever hands down from a true weather perspective. Not even a top 5 snow producer down here in my lifetime (17") but consider:

 

• Nearly a foot of snow in Birmingham, Alabama in mid March
• Crazy severe squall line that raked the Florida penisula
• Hurricane force winds up and down the east coast
• Spectrum in Philadelphia evacuated after 1st period of Flyers game when windows blew out
• Just about all of PA measured 12"+ of snow, many areas had between 2'-3'
• Syracuse NY getting 45" purely from synoptic snow

 

It was a storm I'll never forget. Would have had close to 40" if it was all snow. 

[CarlislePaWx]

another youngster...

I was 32. I had snow banks up to 6 feet tall. best part was falling off my deck onto 30 inches of snow. I remember shoveling a path to the car and two hours later is was gone. you couldn't see the path.

 

I was 33 and living in north jersey.  What a storm.  The day before, Friday the 12th, was a sunny day with temps in the 40's.  The next morning it was 17 degrees with really heavy snow.  I got 13" of snow in about 7 hours.  Then, disappointment (mild) as it switched to heavy sleet.  The sleet continued for the entire afternoon.  Because it fell on top of the foot+ of snow it was difficult to measure.  But I know it was at least 4 inches of sleet.  Early Saturday evening the low pressure came very close to Philly on its way northeast towards NYC.  I lived about 15 miles west of Newark.  The center of the low was so tight that it passed just west of Newark and just east of me.  My temp went up to 29 degrees at its peak while I recorded the lowest barometric pressure ever (and to the present day) at 964 millibars, or 28.38".  It was still sleeting up until the low passed by me.  Meanwhile, Newark suddenly rose all the way up to 38 degrees with heavy rain.  As the pressure began to rise I flipped back to snow as did Newark, and my temp tumbled back down to the low 20's.  I recorded a few more inches of snow after that.  My winds did not gust particularly high, but I probably had a few close to 40mph.

Had I not gone over to sleet I easily would have had another foot of snow.  Harrisburg must have recorded over 2 feet as they were plenty far enough west of the center.  It truly was "The Storm of the Century".

[canderson]

I was 11 at that time (March 12) enjoying cool days in the mid 40s in Dallas. Two days before it hit 90.

[heavy_wx]

I was 28 in '93. Best storm ever hands down from a true weather perspective. Not even a top 5 snow producer down here in my lifetime (17") but consider:

 

• Nearly a foot of snow in Birmingham, Alabama in mid March
• Crazy severe squall line that raked the Florida penisula
• Hurricane force winds up and down the east coast
• Spectrum in Philadelphia evacuated after 1st period of Flyers game when windows blew out
• Just about all of PA measured 12"+ of snow, many areas had between 2'-3'
• Syracuse NY getting 45" purely from synoptic snow

 

It was a storm I'll never forget. Would have had close to 40" if it was all snow. 

 

Actually, a lot of what Syracuse got was lake-enhanced and even pure lake-effect.

 

I was only 1 at the time so I have no recollection of that storm. Where I was living near Albany, NY got 27".

[Itunis]

I was 28 in '93. Best storm ever hands down from a true weather perspective. Not even a top 5 snow producer down here in my lifetime (17") but consider:

 

• Nearly a foot of snow in Birmingham, Alabama in mid March
• Crazy severe squall line that raked the Florida penisula
• Hurricane force winds up and down the east coast
• Spectrum in Philadelphia evacuated after 1st period of Flyers game when windows blew out
• Just about all of PA measured 12"+ of snow, many areas had between 2'-3'
• Syracuse NY getting 45" purely from synoptic snow

 

It was a storm I'll never forget. Would have had close to 40" if it was all snow.

I love talking to my grandmother and great-grandmother about the storm of 93. They had 4-5" a bit north of Mobile, and even my 90 year old great-grandmother can't remember seeing that much snow way down there in Alabama. Wish I'd been up here to see it (and old enough to appreciate it).

[Santa Clause]

Actually, a lot of what Syracuse got was lake-enhanced and even pure lake-effect.

I was only 1 at the time so I have no recollection of that storm. Where I was living near Albany, NY got 27".

Lol this makes me feel old.

[pawatch]

I was 6 when that happened.  I hold out hope for winter until March 15th, after that I'm

Keep in mind the big granddaddy of snow was in March of 93. IF you are too young to remember it,  IT was a great storm, it affected everyone here and it left a mark that only one storm has equaled. (Jan 96)

Rick I was a career fireman on duty for that storm. I worked 24 hours got sent home for 3 hours to take care of business and then worked 48 hrs. I never shoveled so my hydrants in my life. The challenge was trying to find them as they was buried. It was a storm I will always remember but didn't really get to enjoy.

[NortheastPAWx]

Actually, a lot of what Syracuse got was lake-enhanced and even pure lake-effect.

 

I was only 1 at the time so I have no recollection of that storm. Where I was living near Albany, NY got 27".

Same here. AVP recorded 21" with +TSSN at the height.

[AlexP]

I was in NYC for a college music conference that weekend. We had only about a foot of snow in the city, but what I remember most about that storm was the extremely high winds and the fact that the snow and sleet turned into a thick layer of cement-like ice on the roads. My friends foolishly decided to drive back to our college in Albany (where 27 inches had fallen) after the storm despite the fact that all the roads were closed. It took 8 hours to make a 3 hour drive. One of the scariest rides of my life. As amazing as it was to experience that storm in the city, I was ticked that I didn't get to witness the 27-inch amounts in Albany until after it was over. 

[Blizzard of 93]

During the Blizzard of 93, I was just outside of Harrisburg and was a sophomore in High school.

I remember watching the news at 11 the night the storm was to begin and I was worried because temps were just near freezing. Winter storm warnings were up for 1-2 feet of snow and I was extremely excited and could barely sleep. The rest is history with heavy snow and wind that lasted for about 24 hours. We ended up with about 2 feet of snow. My fascination with the weather had started a few years before, but this storm took my interest in the weather to the next level. Someday maybe we will get to share a storm that can approach the same intensity.

[canderson]

If the Saturday storm mosses (it likely does), to my eyes models really seem to want to curb winter quickly.

[MillvilleWx]

Winds dying down here in Millersville. Down to 10/-5. If we can get 3-4 solid hours of radiational cooling, we might hit -2 tonight. Just a continuation of the unbelievable February for the Commonwealth.

The LR looks like it wants to break down the PNA ridge and funnel cold on the western divide. I think once that happens, you'll see a relaxation of the below average anomalies. Don't turn your back though on winter. With a solid snow cover in place across the north and shortening wave lengths in the 500mb pattern, this is when things can become ripe for a significant storm. Now climo wise, the best bet for a big event focuses more on the northern tier and Western PA, but that doesn't mean it still can't have an impact on the rest of the state. I think we might have one more ace in the deck. Idk about a '93 redux, but the last few years have brought us at least one significant storm in March. I think that pattern continues. If it does flip to spring and I'm wrong, I wont be disappointed. Win-win there.