daxx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm intrigued with this system and it may the best storm of the season for parts of the forum, especially the SE. Guidance seems to be honed in, as you would expect now that the energy is being sampled. Still some wobbles to go, but those in the Mid-Atl forum may want to be leery about the cold air progressing south. They may have the best rates, but could waste it on garbage before the true cold air arrives. I've been burned numerous times on a front pressing south with a wave developing on it. It almost always ends up being slower than modeled with the southward progress...but every situation is different so I could be wrong! Thanks, I appreciate your thoughts. I hope we all get in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks to be a little slick for the next several hours up your way, but temps continuing to warm should improve conditions this evening/tonight as the warm layer gets thicker and the cold layer smaller. With the warmer air continuing to surge northward and rainfall rates looking decent over the next few hours, not all will turn to ice so I am not sure .25" will manage to verify but could see trace to .10" occurring for a little bit before melting. If anything, this will be our mildest night in a while. Thanks, still holding at 21. Roads are really bad as the layer of snow was put down now sleet adding up on top of it. If we can stay under 29 with no sun, I'm thinking decent buildup is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NWS has a winter storm watch for all of CPA Altoona Jtown Harrisburg Pottsville York Lancaster etc....Wed eve thru Thur eve with 6+ snow potential. Is this new or was it issued earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Warning just put up for N. Lycoming county, for up to half an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NWS has a winter storm watch for all of CPA Altoona Jtown Harrisburg Pottsville York Lancaster etc....Wed eve thru Thur eve with 6+ snow potential. Is this new or was it issued earlier? Newly issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Warning just put up for N. Lycoming county, for up to half an inch of ice. Thankfully it warms soon so hopefully it won't bring down many branches. .5" is about the cutoff of "this is OK" to "stuff snapping". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thankfully it warms soon so hopefully it won't bring down many branches. .5" is about the cutoff of "this is OK" to "stuff snapping". Surprised they didn't go ice storm warning for that much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow, 12z GEFS has 0.75"+ of liquid N-Central MD into lower York/Lancaster/Chester counties. 00z will be the last mid-range ensemble runs I will look at, going short term after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 With this wind, I'm kinda getting stuff around in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow, 12z GEFS has 0.75"+ of liquid N-Central MD into lower York/Lancaster/Chester counties. 00z will be the last mid-range ensemble runs I will look at, going short term after that. need another little tick North at go time With this wind, I'm kinda getting stuff around in case. good idea, prepare now just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yea sauss, made sure generator ran and all that good stuff. Really ripping sleet with rain drops mixed in, driveway is slippery as all get out. 21.3 f at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Picked up .5" with that hit of snow. Currently light sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Light sleet/snow here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sleetfest getting heavier here. 25° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I’m surprised how iced up my Tahoe is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm thinking the LSV down to MD/NoVa are in the slam zone at the moment. I'm with Allweather, this almost seems too good to be true. The setup screams thump of snow, but where of course is the question. Looking at the upper level pattern, I think one thing that solidifies my feeling a warning criteria event is on the intense upper level divergence pattern located right over the area. 150+ knot jet max to our north and the LSV located smack in the right entrance region of such a powerful jet usually helps out. Throw in a large plume of tropical moisture over a fresh arctic airmass pushing south, and you have the recipe to make a strong blitz of snow. I'm interested where the best area of frontogenesis ends up. Seems like The area from Baltimore up to the lower counties of PA will be in the best spot. I'm pretty excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Apparently, if you guys want to look at it, the SREF's bumped significantly north. Not exactly sure what to expect here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If I had to guess, somewhere in N.MD will get the most lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I’m surprised how iced up my Tahoe is. Yea I am also. Thought things would melt more this afternoon. Changed to mod sleet now temp keeps dropping at 27 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Warning just put up for N. Lycoming county, for up to half an inch of ice. I'm surprised they didn't go with watches in the first place in those counties, WPC guidance had been pretty bullish on >0.25" in north central. I personally think that 0.1-0.25" range they have should be extended down to include the area between Altoona - Mount Union-Bedford. Maybe the cold can hold a bit deeper longer and you can get more sleet. Speaking of which, mainly pingers and some freezing rain mixed in down here with temps around 27-28ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 UKMET dips south, GGEM stays south. I'm all in on today, Wed. Night and Thurs. are gone north of MDT. I just saw this...what? I understand that things have kind of trended south, but that is an extreme thing to say. I thought you would have learned after last year. There was a storm two days out that you proclaimed anyone west of 81 was out. I ended up with a couple inches in Pittsburgh, and I think State College was at like 6 or 8 inches..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Even some flakes mixing in with the sleet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Even some flakes mixing in with the sleet now.Pretty interesting fight going on today with the mid levels. All ZR here unfortunately. What's your thoughts on the upcoming system Mag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 True mixed bag here, I think all 3 are in the game lol. Definitely some rain mixed in their with the sleet pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sidewalks are rough here with the sleet/ZR. Radar looks solid, with temps at 25/16 and the sun heading down it'll be fun to watch the p-types this evening. CTP's latest map shows a decent advisory event from 80 S. I'd gladly take 3-4 even if the southern tier gets 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ^dat ice map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm intrigued with this system and it may the best storm of the season for parts of the forum, especially the SE. Guidance seems to be honed in, as you would expect now that the energy is being sampled. Still some wobbles to go, but those in the Mid-Atl forum may want to be leery about the cold air progressing south. They may have the best rates, but could waste it on garbage before the true cold air arrives. I've been burned numerous times on a front pressing south with a wave developing on it. It almost always ends up being slower than modeled with the southward progress...but every situation is different so I could be wrong! I'm thinking the LSV down to MD/NoVa are in the slam zone at the moment. I'm with Allweather, this almost seems too good to be true. The setup screams thump of snow, but where of course is the question. Looking at the upper level pattern, I think one thing that solidifies my feeling a warning criteria event is on the intense upper level divergence pattern located right over the area. 150+ knot jet max to our north and the LSV located smack in the right entrance region of such a powerful jet usually helps out. Throw in a large plume of tropical moisture over a fresh arctic airmass pushing south, and you have the recipe to make a strong blitz of snow. I'm interested where the best area of frontogenesis ends up. Seems like The area from Baltimore up to the lower counties of PA will be in the best spot. I'm pretty excited. Great analysis.... looking forward to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ^dat ice map that .10 won't verify for Cumberland County.......but man if that .25-.50 pans out for Williamsport y'all are gonna have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 that .10 won't verify for Cumberland County.......but man if that .25-.50 pans out for Williamsport y'all are gonna have issues. The range is a trace to 0.1" so it should verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.