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Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015


MAG5035

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Glad we can put that storm and the old thread to rest. I also appreciate the self aware posts about negative attitudes and frustration. I've been there, frustrated and annoyed at a lack of snow, but I have learned that it's not productive and not healthy. I got my 1.1" here yesterday after a WSW in the morning...mostly just amused at how bad some forecasts were. Added to the already impressive pack here and made a day spent with family even better. Hopefully moving forward we can keep this thread complaint free. If you must vent, there is a thread for that.

I'm looking forward to taking a walk in the relatively balmy conditions today!

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I just reviewed the 0z Euro ensemble run. By the end of next Monday 3/2,

about 40 of the 51 ensemble members had the eastern half of PA in at least

3 inches or more of snow. There were several of these that had 6+ amounts

and a few had bigger hits. I like our chances to see something brewing again

by the end of next weekend. The Euro Op has been waffling around with west and east tracks for this period for the last day or 2 as well.

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Well this is impressive:

We really are on the verge of setting historical negative monthly temp departures for this area. I plugged in the forecasted highs and lows for the rest of the week from the NWS for Ephrata into my speadsheet for Feb and got a incredible -16 temperature departure for the month. A quick search of temperature departures dating back over 100 years on the MU Weather Center and the greatest negative monthly temp departure I could find was -12.1 in Feb. 1936. This month has been just consistent, unrelenting cold.

 

Edit to correct projected departure. Ran numbers again and it looks like we will be between -12 and -13 for the month. Still a very good chance to have the coldest Feb. in 100 years around here.

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Here are the low temperatures I've recorded for the past week in Bellefonte...just ridiculous. 

 

 

2/15/2015:  -8

2/16/2015:  -15

2/17/2015:  0

2/18/2015:  -3

2/19/2015:  -6

2/20/2015:  -9

2/21/2015:  -3

 

All I can say is wow!!! At least we had a couple days above zero.

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Sun feels sooo warm today compared to what we had temperature wise this past week... ended up with 3.2" snow and .36" liquid so not bad at all.  Only had to shovel paths in driveway to expose some of the concrete and now the sun is doing the rest of the job for me, pretty cheap labor lol.  I had been tracking the records and didn't even think to start looking at coldest month rankings other than just Feb, Jan/Feb, Dec/Jan/Feb.  Best part about highs today is that it will not even pull the monthly average up all that much that we should still stay as coldest on record.

 

edit: just saw MDT is at 33 degress at noon which ends our streak of hours below 32 dating back to 3 or 4 pm last Saturday!!

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A couple of observations. First, with how cold it's been, today's 40 almost feels like 60. Second, so much is melting that is sounds like my house is under a waterfall. And third, I lost an inch off my snowpack already. Of course that's just the new stuff. The glacier underneath is going to be pretty resistant, I'll bet.

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Thank you! I wanted to make sure I measured accurately. Delta with 8.9 and Shrewsbury with 8.1 confirms to me that my 8.5 was spot on as I am between those locations. The wind was the wild card that made measuring this storm tricky. I hope we can snag one large event next weekend, then I would be glad to call it a winter!
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In Carlisle doing storm cleanup,they have about 1.5" less that I do at home. We could see the differences we crossed through Camp Hill.

 

Uhh...yep!  I had 2.8" and you had around 4 or a little more.

 

I melted down the snow late last night and got 0.31" of liquid.  That produced a storm ratio of 9:1...not what I was expecting given the very cold temps during the storm.  But, others here have reported less than 10:1 so I know I'm good.

 

Enjoying the nice warm sun this afternoon.  Feels so nice.  

 

Given how historic this month is looking to turn out I think I will go and calculate my monthly departure also.  I happen to live less than one mile from an NCDC coop site, and I have their daily norms for the entire year.  Normal split as of today is 43/23 which looks like i will be pretty close to when today is over.  

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A WeatherUnderground station in the Miners' Mills section of the city is showing 48...not sure if I buy that. But it's plenty warm out there at least in comparison to the past week. 43-44 sounds like a fair estimate.

 

Ah, maybe this will la --

 

  • Tonight Scattered flurries between 9pm and 3am. Partly cloudy during the early evening, then becoming cloudy, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -2. Light northwest wind becoming north 6 to 11 mph in the evening.
  • Monday Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 9. Wind chill values as low as -11. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph.
  • Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around -6. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.

 

 

Oh never mind :(

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I don't know what the normal is for February here, as there is no real climate information for such a small town, but so far the monthly average is 18.9 °F. By comparison, though, last January, the coldest month in that brutally cold winter, was warmer with an average of 21.7 °F.

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MDT recorded another .1 of snow early today.

The 4.8 for this storm was the best of the year thus far.

Now, we just need to get about 4 more inches to get to

The 30 year climo average of 31 inches.

It looks like MDT averages about 6 in. during March.

With about 5 more realistic weeks where we

could score, I like our chances.

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