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Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015


MAG5035

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Some models were showing up to 8-10 for here, NWS originally went with 6-8, then back off to 4-6. I'd have been quite happy with a 6 inch event, but we ended up with our customary 2 inch deal.

 

This morning it's rather pleseant outside with a temp of 25. At this point, I'd love for even normal temperatures to continue. I'm not looking forward to more of this...

 

  • Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -8. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
  • Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -10. Northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
  • Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -14. West wind 5 to 9 mph.
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We finished with 3.7" for the storm. Melted down to .64" of liquid. The sleet and freezing rain at the end obvious hurt ratios but for most of the storm we were not in the best accumulating snows.

 

My only disapointment this winter is that we haven't seen the big one here in central PA. My best storm total so far is 4.5" back on 1/24. The jackpot has often gone to our north and now to our south. In spite of missing out on the big one, I currenly stand at 26.4" for the season which is right at climo. Everything from here on out is gravy. Also the cold in Feb. will be one for the books. I am currently at -11 for the month.

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Some models were showing up to 8-10 for here, NWS originally went with 6-8, then back off to 4-6. I'd have been quite happy with a 6 inch event, but we ended up with our customary 2 inch deal.

 

This morning it's rather pleseant outside with a temp of 25. At this point, I'd love for even normal temperatures to continue. I'm not looking forward to more of this...

 

  • Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -8. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
  • Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -10. Northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
  • Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -14. West wind 5 to 9 mph.

 

 

Not sure how anyone could look forward to that lol.

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Plenty of time left for "the big one"—check

 

If we were actually going to get "the big one" then yes, otherwise I'm ready for spring weather.

 

I gotta say one thing our area is great at is building a snow pack, we probably still have 10 or more inches on the ground.

 

I have a stake in the yard where I measured out one inch increments. I currently have an 11 inch snowpack right now.

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Good luck with the thread Mag. You got this and we all know that one of our fearless leaders will bring home the big one...

Carlisle I like what you posted about not counting every snowflake and instant bust statements. This, like many storms this year, was not supposed to be a snow event for us, and despite all the indiciies not looking good, many are climbing close to climo. As I sit here at the cabin sipping on coffee after snowmobiling 115 miles of some of the best trail conditions we've had in some time, and looking at a snowpack of 18" up here in western Tioga ( and a lesser one at home), I'm happy to see we found a way to get it done. Like most I'm still hoping for the big one but look at the cards we've been dealt, i am happy to still be sitting at the table. It could have been much worse and some seem to forget that.

While some of you are and have been ready for spring (and tell us in every post) some of us are happy to be beating the odds this winter.

Thanks for what you gave us snow gods. The landscape is a winter wonderland. Just beautiful.

Nut.

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Once read somewhere that wisdom gives one the ability to not

be bothered by that which they have no control over (or something like that). Think maybe it's attributable to Saint Francis of Assisi, but am too lazy to look it up. Anyway, certainly words to live by if weather is your passion.

This is how I look at it, I don't look at weather like a game, therefore there is no winning or losing. Success is a journey not a destination, so I chose to enjoy the journey ya know.

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It's funny how after all these signal digits days you get temps in the 20's it feels like a heat wave.

 

I noticed that this morning. The 25 degrees when I took a walk, camera in hand to take pictures, felt kind of balmy. I wasn't wearing any gloves, was out for a half hour, and my hands weren't even cold.

 

As for the philosophical posts above mine here, I agree with all of them, even if I was a bit grumpy yesterday...lol

 

And pasnownut, I'm still counting the days to spring! :P

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We finished with 3.7" for the storm. Melted down to .64" of liquid. The sleet and freezing rain at the end obvious hurt ratios but for most of the storm we were not in the best accumulating snows.

My only disapointment this winter is that we haven't seen the big one here in central PA. My best storm total so far is 4.5" back on 1/24. The jackpot has often gone to our north and now to our south. In spite of missing out on the big one, I currenly stand at 26.4" for the season which is right at climo. Everything from here on out is gravy. Also the cold in Feb. will be one for the books. I am currently at -11 for the month.

I agree, it has been a little frustrating as a snow lover to watch the

jackpot go to our north, south, or west so far. Then again, I think about

how far we have come since around Jan. 20, when on that date most of us in the LSV were still under 10 inches for the season. We are battling our way to climo and most have a good chance to be above with 1 or 2 more light events, or well above if we can get something significant.

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Well this is impressive:

 

.CLIMATE...

THROUGH 2/21/2015...HARRISBURG /MDT/ AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS
20.7 DEGREES. THIS CURRENTLY RANKS #1 COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH 7 MORE DAYS TO GO IN THE MONTH. THE 20.7 AVG. MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY RANKS #4 COLDEST MONTH ALL-TIME/ON RECORD
BEHIND #3 JANUARY 1994 (20.3) ... #2 JANUARY 1977 (20.1) AND #1
JANUARY 1918 (19.1).
NONE OF THE RECORD YEARS WERE LEAP YEARS WITH
29 DAYS.

THROUGH 2/21/2015...WILLIAMSPORT /IPT/ AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
IS 18.0 DEGREES. THIS CURRENTLY RANKS #1 COLDEST FEBRUARY ON
RECORD WITH 7 MORE DAYS TO GO IN THE MONTH. THE 18.0 AVG. MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY RANKS #3 COLDEST MONTH ALL-TIME/ON RECORD
BEHIND #2 JANUARY 1918 (16.5) ... #1 JANUARY 1977 (14.9).
NONE OF
THE RECORD YEARS WERE LEAP YEARS WITH 29 DAYS.

DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY FOR 2/23 AND 2/24:

MDT: +6/1964...-1/1889
IPT: -6/1972...-5/1924

 

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For you Voyager - CTP's AFD from last night -

"FOR THOSE READY FOR A BREAK...THE VERY LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE

HINTING AT THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...BUT

NOT UNTIL THE EARLY DAYS OF MARCH SO NO NEED TO GO SEARCHING FOR

THE SUNSCREEN JUST YET. ONCE THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...WE SHOULD

BE ABLE TO LOOK FORWARD TO SOME MODERATION OF THE BONE CHILLING

COLD THAT HAS SET THIS MONTH ON A COURSE TOWARD BEING THE COLDEST

ON RECORD."

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For you Voyager - CTP's AFD from last night -

"FOR THOSE READY FOR A BREAK...THE VERY LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE

HINTING AT THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...BUT

NOT UNTIL THE EARLY DAYS OF MARCH SO NO NEED TO GO SEARCHING FOR

THE SUNSCREEN JUST YET. ONCE THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...WE SHOULD

BE ABLE TO LOOK FORWARD TO SOME MODERATION OF THE BONE CHILLING

COLD THAT HAS SET THIS MONTH ON A COURSE TOWARD BEING THE COLDEST

ON RECORD."

The longe range models have been saying moderation for sometime now.

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Its beautiful out there despite the lackluster storm yesterday. I bet we'll have more snow on the ground than much of the DC area anyway by the end of this week, given the muted torch today up here.

Truth...I was thinking about that this morning. For all the snow they've gotten, it's going to disappear down there and fast. 

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I woke up yesterday to the winter storm warning being extended down to Montgomery. I was really curious about that, then I saw the hi-res guidance and how absurdly cold it still was...right then I knew the I-70 corridor was in trouble. 

I imagine t
he enhanced forcing over the DC/Baltimore metro area today is the main culprit for Central PA's snow hole. Moisture transport is as strong as modeled, but it's having a hard time overcoming the resulting subsidence (what goes up must come down somewhere). Your global model suite wouldn't pick up on that; gotta go high res and short term -- which will bust a lot of going forecasts for the MDT to IPT area.

 

post-1389-0-28499100-1424617901_thumb.jp

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