calculus1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Snowfall map from Raysweather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 i've been thinking for a while that there could be a very narrow area of sleet since soundings have suggested it's possible but it's impossible to tell where that will be since a lot of that will depend on meso effects that simply are impossible to narrow down this far in advance imo That said, the rap is throwing a big monkey wrench into things as it's showing major dynamical cooling on it's latest run with 850s dropping to 0 or below all the way into central ga. As a whole it's been colder than the nam/gfs anyway at 850s but this would spell the possibility of snow accumulations south of where the transition is expected to be. I'm not sure if it will be as far south as it's 850s would say since the low levels are probably not cold enough in central ga but what is important is it's showing that cooling its possible. btw other panel is to show that the rap is quite a bit further south with the 0c 850 on some runs I just had to triple take on that ..hahah I see that 0c line very close. I have said all along this is a "rates driven" storm...I would agree, that its very possible that portions of Mid GA could see 850's at or slightly below. our 2m temps will likely be too warm, prolly near 40, but something to watch for sure. I guess same thing the NAM was showing last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 We have a thick cloud deck here already. Temp is around 30 degree's and we still have some snow cover left over. I see no way we get to our forecast high's of the low 40's... Really? It's nothing but sunny skies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Noaa has changed my prediction to 5-9 up from 3-5 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is the Euro's 850 temps right at the height of the precip for central NC, verbatim, the Euro is no mixing for Wake. I think I-95 will be the rain/snow line, maybe a little east of that. The Euro was about 0.75" QPF for all of Wake Co with 0.5" reaching the triad. That probably is the best QPF expectation, not buying the insane 1.5" QPF of the NAM's. The RGEM/GFS are roughly around the Euro QPF wise. Thanks for the update on the RGEM and euro. Do you mind posting the euro total precip map? Those are some cold 850's! It would match up with NWS discussion of 12:1-14:1 ratios for the western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 New to the forum. Enjoying reading all of this. If predictions hold, it looks like my living pretty much at the intersection of US 64 and I 95 puts me in some of the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NWS RAH has the Triangle all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Really? It's nothing but sunny skies here. yes but looks like the clouds should roll in in about an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks for the update on the RGEM and euro. Do you mind posting the euro total precip map? Those are some cold 850's! It would match up with NWS discussion of 12:1-14:1 ratios for the western areas. Here you go... Edit: EuroWx has GSO with 11:1 to ratios, RDU with 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 All models have GSP area as rain to start for an hour or two. Will cut totals! I think we may get 2-4, would be surprised to see any more. The Ga border counties may see a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's a little too close for comfort for me here in Johnston Co. I think I-95 will be the rain/snow line, maybe a little east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 From about 10pm tonight till about 4am tomorrow the 6z NAM is an absolute paste bomb here, I have no confidence in the SN maps painting that transition zone correctly. Baginess in both the 1300 /1550 thick lines is pretty telling at 27hrs, soundings also show a deep isothermal layer. Transition zone will likely fall along a Sanford to Washington line, it will wobble and move a little as the disorganized 850 passes just to the south, but that would be my rough guess in this late stage. I do think Greenville does well, more to the north and west but that is always the case. Credit Model Center http://www.americanwx.com/models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Gulf low looked like it popped more south than I expected to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 11Z RAP is really wet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is the Euro's 850 temps right at the height of the precip for central NC, verbatim, the Euro is no mixing for Wake. I think I-95 will be the rain/snow line, maybe a little east of that. The Euro was about 0.75" QPF for all of Wake Co with 0.5" reaching the triad. That probably is the best QPF expectation, not buying the insane 1.5" QPF of the NAM's. The RGEM/GFS are roughly around the Euro QPF wise. Precip is pretty much out of here at 36hrs per the EC graphics on WunderMap, 27, 30, and 33hrs look to be the money shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Seeing all the blue sky here in the upstate this morning is a bit disappointing but given the dynamics of this system I don't think it's particularly big deal at this point. Satellite seems to indicate thicker clouds spreading across GA at the moment so I would expect it to be cloudy in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Gulf low looked like it popped more south than I expected to be honest. Can see it developing here from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Precip is pretty much out of here at 36hrs per the EC graphics on WunderMap, 27, 30, and 33hrs look to be the money shot. Yeah, it looks like you guys front end well, then mix with snow/ip, big event on the Euro for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think it's pretty clear that 1 inch qpf is not going to be a rare event for this system lol. The EURO/GFS are likely underdone. I am just hoping that beefed up totals today do not bring in more mixing. The NAM has raleigh pretty much right on the line for all snow vs sn/ip/sn. Just NW of that line will have some impressive totals this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It dropped a little while ago to 28.6 in Dunwoody with heavy frost (now 28.9). It looks like there may be an hour or so of partial sunshine per current skies here and satellite. Scratch that about chance for some sun. Satellite pic was couple of hours old. Never got sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Birmingham MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME STAMP...TAKING A LOOK AT THE MORNING SOUNDING...WE CAME IN A BIT WARMERALOFT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WE WERE DRIER AS WELL...SUGGESTINGTHAT THE WET BULBING EFFECTS WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST. THISIS NOTHING NEW...BUT MOST PROJECTIONS ALOFT STARTED AT ABOUT+4...WHERE OUR SOUNDING CAME IN AT +8 AT 800MB. SINCE THERE ISLITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES TO HELP OUT THE FROZENPRECIP...WE WILL HAVE TO RELY COMPLETELY ON DYNAMICAL OR MECHANICALCOOLING...THAT IS FORCING COLDER AIR ALOFT DOWNWARD THROUGH HEAVYPRECIP PROCESSES.OTHERWISE...THE START TIME TO THE MOISTENING IS LOOKING QUICKER THANEXPECTED WHICH WILL POSSIBLY NOT ALLOW ALL THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OFSURFACE WARMING. BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EET AT 35/23 AND BHM32/22...AS BHM WOULD WET BULB SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS LONGAS ANY PRE-PRECIP WARMING IS NOT TOO DRAMATIC.WE ARE MOVING FROM THE MODELS TO OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL LAUNCH 1 OR2 SPECIAL BALLOON RUNS TO TRY AND ASSESS MOVING FORWARD. FORECASTWILL REMAIN THE SAME...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND COOLERSURFACE WET BULBING...BE EXTREMELY WEARY OF SLEET AT THE ONSET ANDPOSSIBLY SLEET FOR THE DURATION IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERNEND OF THE WARNING. MY TWO RULES FROM HERE GOING FORWARD WILL BE TOWATCH SURFACE AND 850MB TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE BESTASSESSED THROUGH OBSERVATIONAL DATA.LAST POINT...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXTREMELY HEAVY...CONVECTIVE INSOME CASES...SO THE DYNAMICAL PROCESSES WILL BE AMPED SIGNIFICANTLYCOMPARED TO OUR TYPICAL WINTER EVENTS. KEEP THIS IN MIND...THATCOOLING THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AND IT WILL LIKELY MODIFY ANYFORECAST SOUNDINGS PROJECTED. USING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE AVERY DANGEROUS PROPOSITION FROM HERE FORWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Really? It's nothing but sunny skies here. Already becoming more overcast here. My upstate brethren need to calm down a little. I think we're going to be plenty happy with the amount of snow we get from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Scratch that about chance for some sun. Satellite pic was couple of hours old. Never got sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 FFC have creeped my totals up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Lord have mercy at the latest HRR... It's an absolute jackpot cream job for Northern GA and Upstate SC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Lord have mercy at the latest HRR... It's an absolute jackpot cream job for Northern GA and Upstate SC... Could some of that be thunder snow even? Holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 FFC have creeped my totals up again. This is their forecast from this morning...have to admit I'd be pretty happy with 3.5" here in Dunwoody: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Latest from RAH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 had a peak of sun this morning - now, turning mostly cloudy burrel2, I very much appreciate your Upstate specific posts - agree re the latest HRR is there an obs thread for this major winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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