packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 There's still so much cold air all over SE US. 6Z GFS 2M's look too warm. Hard for me to believe that wintry precip won't dominate ATL -AHN though I do wonder if sleet sneaks in as at least part of it in some CAD areas like ATL-AHN. I do remember the great 2/1979 sleetstorm. It was predicted to be mainly snow. I'm not predicting sleet but am wondering about the possibility. Any opinions? As I was glancing through the bufkit outputs, most areas (including Atlanta) has trended a degree or so colder at 2m on both the Nam and GFS when comparing 0z to 6z runs. It may be playing catch-up and will tick colder at the surface as the day progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I want to be 10-20 miles NW of the rain/snow line, playing with fire but it's go big time. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Some 1 inch liquid lollipops showing up in NE GA and the western upstate at the end of the RAP's range(and more left to come).... definitely looks as wet or wetter than the NAM... Looks like you guys changeover sometime around 6PM. After that, it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm in far north wake county this one could be big if I don't mix with sleet or rain Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 We have a thick cloud deck here already. Temp is around 30 degree's and we still have some snow cover left over. I see no way we get to our forecast high's of the low 40's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think we mix with sleet, not rain, we almost always do with big events. Allan said this morning that taken literally we could see some sleet mixing. Something else I saw said maybe in the end. Idk. But anyway, I think Wake (warning area) will be good to avoid rain transition per what the NWS said. It's areas like Johnston and south etc that stand that chance more. That's my non-expert synopsis of what I'm reading. Lol Looks like a big one. I'm in NW Raleigh myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wake is usually the transition zone because it is so "tall" of a county. From me in fuquay, it is about 50 miles and you are still in norther wake. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Man, the RAP looks pretty damn awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Does anybody have the latest RGEM analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Man, the RAP looks pretty damn awesome. Yes it does. Under 12 hours for this location. Excitement level increasing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 There's still so much cold air all over SE US. 6Z GFS 2M's look too warm. Hard for me to believe that wintry precip won't dominate ATL -AHN though I do wonder if sleet sneaks in as at least part of it in some CAD areas like ATL-AHN. I do remember the great 2/1979 sleetstorm. It was predicted to be mainly snow. I'm not predicting sleet but am wondering about the possibility. Any opinions? I didn't expect to see stars when I woke up early this morning. As the sun began to rise, I noticed the a low could deck moving in. If temps can hold to near 36 or so, I think we're in business. I also totally missed the Freezing Fog Advisory this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Man, the RAP looks pretty damn awesome. Yea, We are definitely getting Rap'ed this morning... Soundings are pretty warm on it, but thats typical from the events I've followed in the past. They should start to come more in line with other modeling as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yea, We are definitely getting Rap'ed this morning... Soundings are pretty warm on it, but thats typical from the events I've followed in the past. They should start to come more in line with other modeling as we get closer to the event. It's usually a dry model too, right? It's cranking out QPF totals near 1.5" in Newberry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 We have a thick cloud deck here already. Temp is around 30 degree's and we still have some snow cover left over. I see no way we get to our forecast high's of the low 40's...Kinda what I was thinking. Sitting at 29 with thick clouds and looks to remain mostly cloudy. Hopefully cut down on the amount of rain to start with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I didn't expect to see stars when I woke up early this morning. As the sun began to rise, I noticed the a low could deck moving in. If temps can hold to near 36 or so, I think we're in business. I also totally missed the Freezing Fog Advisory this morning. It dropped a little while ago to 28.6 in Dunwoody with heavy frost (now 28.9). It looks like there may be an hour or so of partial sunshine per current skies here and satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For the foothills regions of Southwest Va.to Southwest NC don't be surprised if our snow totals are higher than advertised. 1.) Models tend to dry us out a little thinking there is some sort of downslope wind drying us out. 2.) Orographic lift 3.) Models have tended to dry us out. only to be wetter in the last few weeks. Trend I have noticed 4.) NW trend on the models Of course we know all the reasons this could not happen but giving some reasoning behind why we could see more snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADManager Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 There's still so much cold air all over SE US. 6Z GFS 2M's look too warm. Hard for me to believe that wintry precip won't dominate ATL -AHN though I do wonder if sleet sneaks in as at least part of it in some CAD areas like ATL-AHN. I do remember the great 2/1979 sleetstorm. It was predicted to be mainly snow. I'm not predicting sleet but am wondering about the possibility. Any opinions? I remember that 1979 storm. We had moderate sleet for a good 20 hours. 2m temps were low '20's for the duration. Very strong CAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I want to be 10-20 miles NW of the rain/snow line, playing with fire but it's go big time. I'm with you Pack, thinking the same for Moncure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's usually a dry model too, right? It's cranking out QPF totals near 1.5" in Newberry. IMO, it tends to be a little to extreme on "maxima area's" and a little too dry in "minima area's", but it normally does a fairly good job of defining the maxima and minima area's overall... Especially inside of 12 hours. But yea, it's definitely encouraging to see what it's spitting out this morning... it's nice to not have to worry about gulf convection robbing moisture... it actually looks like the convection emanating from the gulf is only going to enhance our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAH just updated by location with this: Tonight Snow, mainly after 11pm. Low around 29. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Thursday A chance of freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle between 10am and 11am, then a chance of drizzle after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night A chance of freezing drizzle before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind 3 to 6 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 One thing is for sure... soil temperatures could not possibly be any better for this time of year. I know the soil temp arguement against accumulations is bogus, but soil temp does play a huge effect in how long the snow stays on the ground after it has fallen.I was about to post the same thing. My yard looks like a tundra with patches of snow and rock hard ground. I'm currently 26 so stickage will not be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Does anybody have the latest RGEM analysis? RGEM looks pretty good, has Wake Co. mixing with some sleet which is why snow totals aren't as high. Kind of what I am thinking for us, 3-5" with some sleet. QPF for Wake was about 0.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think I may see a good mix of rain. I'm near Fuquay, right near the southern edge of Wake... Northern Wake could be quite different than me. Barring another jog n'west, I think y'all,northern Harnett and Lee will see minimal mixing and some decent totals. The 850 temps will be tricky for a bit. Meanwhile, 25 miles down the road, FAY stands a solid chance of watching the parade pass us by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Steve, Look at the 6Z GFS progged 925's vs 850's for MGE, PDK, and AHN. They're generally colder and at -1 C most of the time while 850's are as warm as +1 C. So, 4K feet above ground 34 F while it is 30 F at 2K feet above ground?? That seems sleety if those levels were to be accurate. In the past, I've noticed 850's in the +1C to +2.5C range while there is decent wedging has resulted in sleet as the main precip type. Regardless, 2M temp's, which are a little warmer on this GFS run, are almost certainly quite a bit too warm and would likely be closer to 28-30 F. Opinions Steve or others? i've been thinking for a while that there could be a very narrow area of sleet since soundings have suggested it's possible but it's impossible to tell where that will be since a lot of that will depend on meso effects that simply are impossible to narrow down this far in advance imo That said, the rap is throwing a big monkey wrench into things as it's showing major dynamical cooling on it's latest run with 850s dropping to 0 or below all the way into central ga. As a whole it's been colder than the nam/gfs anyway at 850s but this would spell the possibility of snow accumulations south of where the transition is expected to be. I'm not sure if it will be as far south as it's 850s would say since the low levels are probably not cold enough in central ga but what is important is it's showing that cooling its possible. btw other panel is to show that the rap is quite a bit further south with the 0c 850 on some runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 He whole freezing fog thing here was an unexpected surprise as well......if we can get precip in here before too big of a warmup, that could really help big time. Our grass is frozen pretty hard......just gotta keep the sun away! - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM looks pretty good, has Wake Co. mixing with some sleet which is why snow totals aren't as high. Kind of what I am thinking for us, 3-5" with some sleet. QPF for Wake was about 0.75" Looks good. See that little 6" spot at the top of Wake County; that's me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That said, the rap is throwing a big monkey wrench into things as it's showing major dynamical cooling on it's latest run with 850s dropping to 0 or below all the way into central ga. As a whole it's been colder than the nam/gfs anyway at 850s but this would spell the possibility of snow accumulations south of where the transition is expected to be. I'm not sure if it will be as far south as it's 850s would say since the low levels are probably not cold enough in central ga but what is important is it's showing that cooling its possible.What did you get down to this morning? We were a little colder than progged, along with the freezing fog thing. Hope one or two little things will make all the difference in the world today. Seems as if most of he guidance was a little on the high side with temps, albeit not that much.- Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Our point forecast just changed from 3-7" to 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This is the Euro's 850 temps right at the height of the precip for central NC, verbatim, the Euro is no mixing for Wake. I think I-95 will be the rain/snow line, maybe a little east of that. The Euro was about 0.75" QPF for all of Wake Co with 0.5" reaching the triad. That probably is the best QPF expectation, not buying the insane 1.5" QPF of the NAM's. The RGEM/GFS are roughly around the Euro QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 6z GFS did tickle Wake Co with the 850 line but this is what it showed for Ptypes....I do think we mix some with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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