WidreMann Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The UKMET is seemingly NW. Tracks the surface low over SE GA. It's hard to tell because of timing, but it could be compatible with NAM and GFS. It's definitely a big change, though. Then again, this is the same UKMET that drove a strong low into the apps last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Anyone got 03z SREF details? Not out on NCEP or the plumes yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Anyone got 03z SREF details? Not out on NCEP or the plumes yet. The 03z SREF won't be out until 2-2:30 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's hard to tell because of timing, but it could be compatible with NAM and GFS. It's definitely a big change, though. Then again, this is the same UKMET that drove a strong low into the apps last week... Yep, I wish it was right though, we would get better front end and would get clipped when it's off the coast. We probably mix but either way would be good. Looks almost 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Anyone got 03z SREF details? Not out on NCEP or the plumes yet. 03z won't be out until around 2:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NWS has a high of 36 for us tomorrow with snow all afternoon. Meanwhile, TWC just switched us to all rain tomorrow. Obviously it's a really tough call to make, but I'd rather have the NWS forecast to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Any details on the ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Any details on the ggem? Courtesy of WeatherBELL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Courtesy of WeatherBELL: You either have to download the image and upload it here (if allowed), or do without. People without a Weatherbell subscription cannot see the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's already down to 21 at RDU and clouds are definitely gone. I'll bet we'll drop into the upper teens by morning, especially with the snowpack. That's already well below SREF predictions and the NAM predictions by several degrees (both bottom us out at 24/25). If that plus the snowpack tomorrow keeps temps just a few degrees colder, perhaps maxing at 40 instead of 45, that could make a difference for ptype tomorrow night. EDIT: there are still some clouds around, apparently, as temps are fluctuating back up a little bit. Still, we're on the colder side of the envelope already, so that's a plus either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Did you notice not one single prediction on snow amounts (for anywhere) that i saw in that forecast. Not one. We're 24hrs out. Guess that's how they roll. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Honestly, why make a prediction when it's not starting in the Triangle til 9-10pm. The virtually have another day to mull things over. Probably a smart move on their part. No need to jump the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's already down to 21 at RDU and clouds are definitely gone. I'll bet we'll drop into the upper teens by morning, especially with the snowpack. That's already well below SREF predictions and the NAM predictions by several degrees (both bottom us out at 24/25). If that plus the snowpack tomorrow keeps temps just a few degrees colder, perhaps maxing at 40 instead of 45, that could make a difference for ptype tomorrow night. The temperature shot from 23 to 25 once overcast rolled in here in the last hour, FWIW. I don't really think BL temps will be a huge problem, though. Honestly, why make a prediction when it's not starting in the Triangle til 9-10pm. The virtually have another day to mull things over. Probably a smart move on their part. No need to jump the gun. Maybe people should be able to plan? A lot of the public probably thinks this storm is going to be no big deal at all now and they might be caught off-guard... EDIT: Okay, I didn't realize they used probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Honestly, why make a prediction when it's not starting in the Triangle til 9-10pm. The virtually have another day to mull things over. Probably a smart move on their part. No need to jump the gun. Agreed. But I still think the forecaster's role is to warn reasonably rather than to deny and placate the naysayers. Safety first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Great video update from Brad P: https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=833066200099171 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Beat me to it lol^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Agreed. But I still think the forecaster's role is to warn reasonably rather than to deny and placate the naysayers. Safety first. They did though. They said Raleigh has an 89% chance of seeing 1" , per their model mean...82% or thereabouts for 2" and a 61% chance of 4" of snow. Obviously they put it out there that the odds are we'll get snow. Why focus on a number when everything shuts down here with 1/2" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 They did though. They said Raleigh has an 89% chance of seeing 1" tomorrow, per their model mean...82% or therabouts for 2" and a 61% chance of 4" of snow. Obviously the put it out there that the odd are high that we'll get snow. Why focus on a number when everything shuts down here with 1/2" of snow? 1/2" means I can get to the grocery store for food when I'm over 60 at most any time of the day. 3" does not. Public Safety. (edit) need to alert caregivers to care for their folks.. Not try to affirm a questionable model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 1/2" means I can get to the grocery store for food when I'm over 60 at most any time of the day. 3" does not. Public Safety. (edit) need to alert caregivers to care for their folks.. Not try to affirm a questionable model. Sorry to take this off topic. We both make valid points. Go PACK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 21z SREF Mean Snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sorry to take this off topic. We both make valid points. Go PACK! ditto. Yes they won.. this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 looking good!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I just made a really really fast image with straight lines of what my current thoughts for Wintry precip into SC are. Not touching amounts with a ten-foot pole! What do you guys think? Am I way off, too far South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I just made a really really fast image with straight lines of what my current thoughts for Wintry precip into SC are. Not touching amounts with a ten-foot pole! What do you guys think? Am I way off, too far South? I think a line going from anderson to union to lancaster for the heaviest snowfall above that and most likely to stay snow through out. No clue about it going down into Columbia. I think they will see snow at some point, but I don't know if it will accumulate. I'm a little worried about temps even in the northern upstate. Everyone talks about how the accumulation field would expand a great deal if it were .5-1° degree cooler, but what if it's warmer by that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Came across this earlier. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 looking good!!! Looks more robust and a bit further north than the NAM for that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Unsurprisingly, the Euro is coming in wetter. Little stronger low closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think a line going from anderson to union to lancaster for the heaviest snowfall above that and most likely to stay snow through out. No clue about it going down into Columbia. I think they will see snow at some point, but I don't know if it will accumulate. I'm a little worried about temps even in the northern upstate. Everyone talks about how the accumulation field would expand a great deal if it were .5-1° degree cooler, but what if it's warmer by that much? Thanks! I have the "ew" thing around KCAE/More Central Midlands because I have no clue either. I think you may be on to something bringing that heaviest snow line a bit North with a "curve' to it. I just threw something quick together with straight lines to hopefully get an idea across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NWS Raleigh is already hinting that they will probably be raising the snowfall totals for the triad and triangle areas because the models are coming in wetter. from the 10:42 PM NWS Raleigh updated AFD. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION... THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS A BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE EXPECTED "NARROW TRANSITION ZONE" BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z/THURS. THE SE COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE MORE RAIN... BUT A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MUCH MORE DETAILS COMING AS ALL THE DATA ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 21z SREF Mean Snowfall: The mean snowfall is a bit deceptive because they still seems to be a spread among the members. Almost all of the arw members show something like this: Granted, this is overdone, but it does realize the potential here. The NMM panels from the sref are total different with minimal snowfall for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The mean snowfall is a bit deceptive because they still seems to be a spread among the members. Almost all of the arw members show something like this: Granted, this is overdone, but it does realize the potential here. Do you know which members should be more trusted in this situation? I did notice that the three families of members were all pretty different. --- 00z ECMWF clown totals: PGV: 11" ATL: 6" CLT: 6" GSO: 4" RDU: 7" GSP: 5" AVL: 4" One thing I would note is that 850s are really cold for the northern fringes of the precip shield, so I guess it's possible there's decent ratios up there. >2" makes it all the way up to Roanoke as the precip field continues to spread out on each successive Euro run. It's also colder at the surface. GSO gets down to 29 for a good portion of the storm with -7C 850s. Looks like CLT and RDU are in the 30-32 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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