JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For what it's worth, after holding steady this evening the temp dropped 3 degrees in the last hour at RDU. Was 26.1 and now 23.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The GFS does not have 1" for RDU. The .75" line barely makes it to eastern Wake County. Still, the GFS is noticeably wetter and that's s good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Atlanta has the moisture and it looks like it's projected to get some very heavy precip. bands(some models show a N/S very heavy precip. band moving through the Atlanta area). If temps cooperate, Atlanta will do well. I'm praying to my knees that dynamic cooling + warm bias on models will deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yeah, hope so Greg! Damn we are so on the line You know, we have tight roped this thing for so long now, I believe it's going to happen for us this time. We have always been within the margin of error but we have mostly been on the right side so, I'm pretty confident where we sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No mixing? Really? It's close, but not for Wake of points NW. So NAM/RGEM/GFS all have 6"+ for this at 24 hours out from start. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What is your current temp vs projected low for the night? We are about to bust big time to the under over this way. forecast low is about 30, currently 31. temp here has been stuck at 32/33 all day. high was forecasted to be 40 or so. With clouds still around i don't expect much change in temps. the more important thing to watch for is how soon the thicker clouds and that finger of precip moves in toward mid day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The GFS does not have 1" for RDU. The .75" line barely makes it to eastern Wake County. Still, the GFS is noticeably wetter and that's s good thing. From the hires maps it's .7-.8" across Wake Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The RGEM has had a slight warm bias this winter, tending to be 30-50 miles too far north with its precip change lines, if thats the case ATL will get hit harder than expected. I'd say that's quite promising then. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 forecast low is about 30, currently 31. temp here has been stuck at 32/33 all day. high was forecasted to be 40 or so. With clouds still around i don't expect much change in temps. the more important thing to watch for is how soon the thicker clouds and that finger of precip moves in toward mid day tomorrow. Gotcha. That cloud line must be somewhere between us then. 100% clear and temps dropping about half a degree every hour here. Had some freezing fog the last hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Chris, I am starting to think there is going to be a least a few bursts of Winter Ptype especially down your way and maybe into the Midlands of SC when all is said and done. I don't expect anything crazy and all.. but let me point out how poorly the models did today: In my yard, it's 33.4F .. it was very light precip still falling as soon as 45 min ago. We were supposed to be close to 40 today and the moisture was gone by 1PM. So, colder + more precip. Edit: with the above said, this could be pure weenie talk. I could see that Shawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WeatherNation had an accumulation map with 6 inches for ATL... I wish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's close, but not for Wake of points NW. So NAM/RGEM/GFS all have 6"+ for this at 24 hours out from start. Hmmm... What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 when it first started coming in i thought for sure it would be a lot colder..i was like yes! because i want atlanta to get hit. The snow hole there is insane vs the rest of the south. sure makes it hard to figure what i should do tomorrow. I don't want to have to leave if i don't have to. ugh..wish it wasn't so close. I still think there is room to cool around ATL and BHM...I Am with you on that. NAM IMHO proved that too me when it showed me having some sub 0c 850's for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ok, folks...the **FINAL** call from me on this storm.. I will be around as yall are hopefully seeing snow and I am needing a boat down here. hahahah Thanks for all the new likes and spreading the word about my page. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 You might be right, but seems most of the models tonight has NW NC min. in the state. Well, that's pretty much a given with this setup. The good news is that you'll be colder, won't have to worry about mixing, and might get better ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well, that's pretty much a given with this setup. The good news is that you'll be colder, won't have to worry about mixing, and might get better ratios. yeah that's true, we'll see whatever happens, happens. lol At least a lot on the board is in for a good one!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow, the RGEM has 850s at ATL airport 0.3 C from 18--00Z before it warms them up...its giving rain in the 18-00Z period because either its taking that temp literally or it sees the 2m temps of 2C...that further shows how tight this is as if we did not already know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL is holding on to warm temps at RDU. Never believes we have freezing from 2m up through the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL is holding on to warm temps at RDU. Never believes we have freezing from 2m up through the whole event. yep, says starts as snow then changes to sleet by 1am then to frz rain as moisture exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ok, folks...the **FINAL** call from me on this storm.. I will be around as yall are hopefully seeing snow and I am needing a boat down here. hahahah Thanks for all the new likes and spreading the word about my page. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Liked and shared Chris! Even though I'm in Raleigh I'm a novice and I've learned a lot from your videos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 when it first started coming in i thought for sure it would be a lot colder..i was like yes! because i want atlanta to get hit. The snow hole there is insane vs the rest of the south. sure makes it hard to figure what i should do tomorrow. I don't want to have to leave if i don't have to. ugh..wish it wasn't so close. Chris, there is a snowhole here too! When I was a younger sprout, I always heard things like "If it snows in Dallas and Atlanta, we will get snow". I definitely don't see ATL getting blanked though. KCAE.. eh light snow at some point.. nothing major for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No change to my thinking about Atlanta. Very very close for places like Marietta, Smyrna, but still think ITP is just out of the accumulations and no chance south of the center of the city. Basis for this is no real movement in the models so far in a southward direction with the 0Z runs. This level of consistency is hard to go against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL is probably too warm, but I doubt we go below 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No change to my thinking about Atlanta. Very very close for places like Marietta, Smyrna, but still think ITP is just out of the accumulations and no chance south of the center of the city. Basis for this is no real movement in the models so far in a southward direction with the 0Z runs. This level of consistency is hard to go against. Some 00Z models have something resembling a comma head type feature snow band behind the low, the RGEM and WRF both show it later tomorrow night, that could be a bit of a bonus for those who miss out but placing it now is too tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 yeah that's true, we'll see whatever happens, happens. lol At least a lot on the board is in for a good one!!! Hug the 4km NAM/SREF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 LMAO, Glenn Burns just had to import the NAM into his broadcast because his awesome inhouse model showed all rain over all of ATL to Alpharetta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL is probably too warm, but I doubt we go below 30. Did you notice not one single prediction on snow amounts (for anywhere) that i saw in that forecast. Not one. We're 24hrs out. Guess that's how they roll. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hug the 4km NAM/SREF! Yeah, NWS says 3-5 for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 yep, says starts as snow then changes to sleet by 1am then to frz rain as moisture exits. Every legitimate Bufkit sounding disagrees with their future cast model for RDU. Even warm SREF shows only 3 hours of IP at most in an 8 hour event. No FRZ RN designation in any soundings for their location that I can find. If they are forecasting for South East of Raleighwood, then this might be legitimate. RDU, North, and West... no deal just stubborn hype. I hate that they are holding firm on this despite the public safety implications. Better safe, than sorry... Not good forecasting IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The UKMET is seemingly NW. Tracks the surface low over SE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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