Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm a little surprised a sub-1000mb low isn't throwing more moisture NW on the RGEM. Then again I'm on my phone so I can't really see any other maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Maybe the thing is you don't get lows off the NC coast like that and not get tons of throwback, if this was going to be rain nobody would blink twice at 1-2" rainfall predictions on a deepening low off the coast like that.....even if its moving fast its still going to be a 12+ hr event...like HKY pointed out the Euro/GFS/CMC consensus seems to low on WPF given the low strength and track......usually when they got strong lows offshore they produce the goods....I mean I get all giddy just thinking of a 997 sitting 100 miles SE of Lookout that's the dream setup for getting crushed in this area especially if its bombing out as it passes out to the east...... I am thinking 6-8" IMBY is a solid call at this time and if anything is lowballing it.....there are things that can change or screw it up but I think the chances of me seeing a true 12" storm are higher with this one than anything else in forever. Well I have to correct myself in this respect....Euro and Euro Ens mean are around 0.9 QPF for Greenville, NC...so, pretty stout...good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM has snow/rain mix in CLT as early as 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 00z NAM: 8-12 for the Hampton Roads. Coach, you are starting to sound like Jon Cash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS puts almost the entire state of NC in .50 - .75 and RDU east around one inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Where are the RGEM people? Is it that bad? Wetter than 18z. Looks like the NAM on first look. Looks great. Everything is trending towards the NAM, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks for sharing and thoughts. I believe there will be a good bit of moisture coming in from the Gulf instead of the the Atlantic side for I 85. When Atlanta gets the moisture, we normally get it as well from my experience here. Also, looking at the expected cloud cover, I don't see the sun coming out much tomorrow. I think we will bust to a high around 38 or so. JMHO. thanks again These are good points. If we stay cloudy tomorrow that will help keep a lid on it, but the call for tonight is partly cloudy and a high of 43 tomorrow. That is going to hurt us since we don't have CAA with this one, just dynamic cooling. BL temps will come back into it I'm afraid. And I think we'll have plenty of QPF, I just think our accums will be greatly affected by the other factors. While we may get quite a bit of snowfall, we may not have a lot of snow accums. Thanks for your thoughts as well pc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Well the rap is south of the nam so far all evening through 18 hours. It's not a lot but when it's this close it won't take a lot for those on the edge and it could be enough to do the job for atlanta itself, if it continues this track and its right of course. and....the goofus is even colder this run.....says, HELLO ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I believe SnowGoose said the RGEM did well in the short term? For my fellow NW GA members, this is our best look yet imo. 0z looks great for Bartow/Gordon/Cherokee/Pickens Counties. Hit 40F today but have dropped to 30F already. Forecast-ed low of 28F may be in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 and....the goofus is even colder this run.....says, HELLO ATL Chris, I am starting to think there is going to be a least a few bursts of Winter Ptype especially down your way and maybe into the Midlands of SC when all is said and done. I don't expect anything crazy and all.. but let me point out how poorly the models did today: In my yard, it's 33.4F .. it was very light precip still falling as soon as 45 min ago. We were supposed to be close to 40 today and the moisture was gone by 1PM. So, colder + more precip. Edit: with the above said, this could be pure weenie talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wetter than 18z. Looks like the NAM on first look. Looks great. Everything is trending towards the NAM, it seems. Seems every model has been a touch stronger with the SLP and a hair NW once off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 gfs joins the nam, ~1" here in rdu. looks like all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wetter than 18z. Looks like the NAM on first look. Looks great. Everything is trending towards the NAM, it seems. RGEM really has a min. in NW NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I believe SnowGoose said the RGEM did well in the short term? For my fellow NW GA members, this is our best look yet imo. 0z looks great for Bartow/Gordon/Cherokee/Pickens Counties. Hit 40F today but have dropped to 30F already. Forecast-ed low of 28F may be in jeopardy. We're already at our forecast low of 30 right now in north ATL under bright, cold skies. Like our odds of busting low. Hope the clouds set in toward day break. That would be about all we could ask for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For north ga folks, believe it or not the nam is colder on average than the gfs..even though the gfs is slightly colder this run. If this storm is just 1c colder then all the areas on the edges are going to get a lot more. Hell soundings show even 1/2 a degree would make a huge difference for those same areas with soundings showing temps of only 0.50c throughout a lot of the column from atlanta to athens in the heart of the storm. Just can't help but shake the feeling dynamics could throw a monkey wrench into these areas that are so damn close. The irony being that IF these heavy rates offset the warm advection and keep the column cold enough for all snow the heaviest axis of snow will be closer to where many are thinking they are on the edge of getting nothing. Going to be a nowcasting situation for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 gfs joins the nam, ~1" here in rdu. looks like all snow. SLP a little weaker than the NAM, but still a mighty fine look and plenty moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I believe SnowGoose said the RGEM did well in the short term? For my fellow NW GA members, this is our best look yet imo. 0z looks great for Bartow/Gordon/Cherokee/Pickens Counties. Hit 40F today but have dropped to 30F already. Forecast-ed low of 28F may be in jeopardy. Yeah, hope so Greg! Damn we are so on the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS has less of a gradient now, and it still lays down 4 inches for northern ITP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS and NAM precip compare...GFS on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I much prefer the GFS snowfall map over the RGEM one. But the RGEM has done so well lately and the GFS has been horrible with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 gfs joins the nam, ~1" here in rdu. looks like all snow. Better late than never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For north ga folks, believe it or not the nam is colder on average than the gfs..even though the gfs is slightly colder this run. If this storm is just 1c colder then all the areas on the edges are going to get a lot more. Hell soundings show even 1/2 a degree would make a huge difference for those same areas with soundings showing temps of only 0.50c throughout a lot of the column from atlanta to athens in the heart of the storm. Just can't help but shake the feeling dynamics could throw a monkey wrench into these areas that are so damn close. The irony being that IF these heavy rates offset the warm advection and keep the column cold enough for all snow the heaviest axis of snow will be closer to where many are thinking they are on the edge of getting nothing. Going to be a nowcasting situation for sure. What is your current temp vs projected low for the night? We are about to bust big time to the under over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like we might bust a little low on temps. Forecast for Raleigh is around 26. Temps now show 23 in Durham, 26 in Raleigh already. Seems like a few degrees lower is likely. Would assume this would take longer to warm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM really has a min. in NW NC Come on Frosty, we've seen that before (last Monday) and we all know how that worked out. I think we're in decent shape for a nice 3-6" snowfall. Maybe a tick more if this thing strengthens more. Think that's asking too much, though. But I don't think we get minimized with this setup. Storm moving from SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 gfs joins the nam, ~1" here in rdu. looks like all snow. No mixing? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 and....the goofus is even colder this run.....says, HELLO ATL when it first started coming in i thought for sure it would be a lot colder..i was like yes! because i want atlanta to get hit. The snow hole there is insane vs the rest of the south. sure makes it hard to figure what i should do tomorrow. I don't want to have to leave if i don't have to. ugh..wish it wasn't so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 These are good points. If we stay cloudy tomorrow that will help keep a lid on it, but the call for tonight is partly cloudy and a high of 43 tomorrow. That is going to hurt us since we don't have CAA with this one, just dynamic cooling. BL temps will come back into it I'm afraid. And I think we'll have plenty of QPF, I just think our accums will be greatly affected by the other factors. While we may get quite a bit of snowfall, we may not have a lot of snow accums. Thanks for your thoughts as well pc! Thank you and we will see how it comes out. i agree if the Sun comes out, totals will come down. Just looking at the satellite looks like a lot of clouds will continue to roll in. Pretty soon it is time to look at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I believe SnowGoose said the RGEM did well in the short term? For my fellow NW GA members, this is our best look yet imo. 0z looks great for Bartow/Gordon/Cherokee/Pickens Counties. Hit 40F today but have dropped to 30F already. Forecast-ed low of 28F may be in jeopardy. The RGEM has had a slight warm bias this winter, tending to be 30-50 miles too far north with its precip change lines, if thats the case ATL will get hit harder than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Come on Frosty, we've seen that before (last Monday) and we all know how that worked out. I think we're in decent shape for a nice 3-6" snowfall. Maybe a tick more if this thing strengthens more. Think that's asking too much, though. But I don't think we get minimized with this setup. Storm moving from SW to NE. You might be right, but seems most of the models tonight has NW NC min. in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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