Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Look at what it does Chris, when it strengthens the mid low over southern GA. It drops my 850's down to like 0c almost -2c for a brief time...hahah Well..ok nam Yep that's what i was referencing. IF the nam is right and it's that intense, It's hard to picture there not being some cooling to counteract waa when the nam is dropping 0.50 to 0.75 in 3 to 4 hours time in many places and an inch in about 6 hours time. Especially when you view it's insane looking radar imagery which almost looks like a squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 998mb low off hatteras at 33hr with rdu getting smoked. Just south of Cape Lookout. That's a right nice look. There could easily be more wrap around than shown at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Some of the moisture from this system will be brought from the Atlantic Ocean. There will be southeasterly winds almost entirely through the storm, so this could help to enhance the precipitation through the Carolinas. I expect that models could be under-doing the precipitation in certain areas, and that is why I am not shocked when the NAM increased precipitation at 0z. I expect nearly all the state to receive at least a 1/2 of an inch of precipitation, and areas from roughly I-77 west to receive over 3/4 of an inch of precipitation. Further east, 1+ inch of precip is likely. I think that someone just north of the top of the SC/NC escarpment is going to jackpot with > 12" with this one. On a "banter" side note... watching the "Day after tomorrow" suedo science at it's best (or worst) and a quick shout out to Burger, Cold Rain and all the Red posters for the great PBP... Edit: and Lookout for calming my inner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Starting to think the other models are underestimating the QPF given the consistency of the NAM. I honestly do not like the NAM at all and have seen it bust many times over, but generally when a model keys in on certain features run after run, there's something to it. The key is it holds together the cutoff/stj energy longer, allowing it to pull up copious GOM moisture tomorrow as it sits over the deep south. The radar reflectivity on the NAM at 24 hours mirrors some big dogs I've seen in the past. I wouldn't be surprised to see the other models beef up the qpf tonight and tomorrow. Not sure 1.5 is realistic, but an inch or so of QPF doesn't seem out of the question, especially in certain banding situations over NE Ga and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yep that's what i was referencing. IF the nam is right and it's that intense, It's hard to picture there not being some cooling to counteract waa when the nam is dropping 0.50 to 0.75 in 3 to 4 hours time in many places and an inch in about 6 hours time. Especially when you view it's insane looking radar imagery which almost looks like a squall line. I fully agree....I think, as most times around here, there is going to many surprises...I want this I-20 smasher....I feel like I have been talking about it for a week!! hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Tennessee is really getting the shaft from this storm. All the short-range models keep a tight gradient on the precip shield at the southern TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I would be completely shocked if the airport got 2-3". As I said before I would just love to be dead wrong with this one though..... Well the rap is south of the nam so far all evening through 18 hours. It's not a lot but when it's this close it won't take a lot for those on the edge and it could be enough to do the job for atlanta itself, if it continues this track and its right of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redteamllc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How often in the past X years has it been since it has snowed on the 25th of Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That is a thing of beauty I like the 1-2 inch idea over my back yard close to CAE. Now that I have seen this new run, I don't feel so bad about my idea of rain/snow ending as light snow could be far off. Euro kind of supported the idea earlier when I released my first call map, but I dropped it in case things trended better for this area. Robert's map is literally just 15 miles too far South through the Midlands IMO and I would expect it to be considering he doesn't live in this area. In the end, a lot of people on the Southern areas could see a surprise though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Starting to think the other models are underestimating the QPF given the consistency of the NAM. I honestly do not like the NAM at all and have seen it bust many times over, but generally when a model keys in on certain features run after run, there's something to it. The key is it holds together the cutoff/stj energy longer, allowing it to pull up copious GOM moisture tomorrow as it sits over the deep south. The radar reflectivity on the NAM at 24 hours mirrors some big dogs I've seen in the past. I wouldn't be surprised to see the other models beef up the qpf tonight and tomorrow. Not sure 1.5 is realistic, but an inch or so of QPF doesn't seem out of the question, especially in certain banding situations over NE Ga and eastern NC. I agree if the SLP track is where the Euro has it, and the low is in the 995-1000MB off the NC coast tracking out to the ENE its gonna be tough to NOT get 1"+ QPF here, IMO if this system follows the Euro SLP track it will dump on central and eastern NC....really this is the best looking setup for a real deal big dog in quite awhile..... the potential is there for some pretty impressive totals in central and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Where are the RGEM people? Is it that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Where are the RGEM people? Is it that bad? Slow to come out, stronger and slower than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I agree if the SLP track is where the Euro has it, and the low is in the 995-1000MB off the NC coast tracking out to the ENE its gonna be tough to NOT get 1"+ QPF here, IMO if this system follows the Euro SLP track it will dump on central and eastern NC....really this is the best looking setup for a real deal big dog in quite awhile..... the potential is there for some pretty impressive totals in central and eastern NC. Yea, I definitely think someone in eastern NC to far SE VA will see a foot out of this. Not sure who, but depends on where the best bands setup. In the past Roanoke Rapids up to Suffolk have seemed to luck out in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 My novice thoughts FWIW, for the upstaters and NC; feel free to agree or disagree : I love the maps by Robert and Brad for the upstate, BUT... -I don't like the timing of this coming into the upstate in the late afternoon. Especially if we get Sun tomorrow, surface temps are going to be a problem for accumulation. Yes rates will overcome soil temps, but 2m temps can eat up a TON of accumulation. Starting as rain will moisten up the ground itself and it will take time for the snow to freeze up the ground enough to accumulate. BL temps are my main concern for big accums in the upstate. March 09 is a perfect example where I had Thunder snow for several hours but never got more than 4.5 inches with temps being 34 the entire time. Places 20 miles North with temps of 31 got a foot! -In thinking back, when I get snow in N Upstate, NC Mtns ALWAYS get more (not less). Some way, some how, whether by ratios, updraft enhancement, or leading precip fingers, they ALWAYS get more, regardless of what is modeled or progged. Now there have been times where neither or us have gotten snow like Dec 89, or the Carolina crusher, but this is a different set up. -Eastern NC usually seems to do better than initially expected, especially when the precip is coming to them overnight instead of in the afternoon, which will be the case with this one. Given all this - I predict 2-5 for N Upstate (Anderson to Simpsonville to Gaffney North). And I think Eastern upstate does better than Western because precip reaches them closer to sunset and is a little more wound up then. Within this area though, someone could def see 10 to 12 or even more if they get under the right bands and who knows where that will be. But most people will not see that much. Trace to 3 for central upstate. Mostly rain to 1 inch in southern upstate. NC Mtns will see 4 to 12 inches based on position and elevation. Central NC will be similar to upstate but a little more; 3-8 inches. NE NC will be impressive with 5-12, possibly more with banding and the higher amounts North. Good luck everyone! May the flakes be with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Where are the RGEM people? Is it that bad? nope..looks good. very similar to it's prior run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I agree if the SLP track is where the Euro has it, and the low is in the 995-1000MB off the NC coast tracking out to the ENE its gonna be tough to NOT get 1"+ QPF here, IMO if this system follows the Euro SLP track it will dump on central and eastern NC....really this is the best looking setup for a real deal big dog in quite awhile..... the potential is there for some pretty impressive totals in central and eastern NC. downeast - I think the precip duration is a limiting factor for a big, big dog....also, I'd like to see the Euro and Euro Ens mean beef up more...they tend to be more conservative with QPF, and more often correct, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's looking more and more like the south ATL metro will miss out on this one, but FFC is being smart by including some counties south of I-20/85, especially after last year's debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's looking more and more like the south ATL metro will miss out on this one, but FFC is being smart by including some counties south of I-20/85, especially after last year's debacle. I've never understood why people get upset when their included and it could bust. Worst case is you're a little inconvenienced since you left work early or the kids stayed home from school. Best case is people's lives were saved. I'll always lean towards the latter and our government should as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It is from WSI and is similar to the NAM but can be quite different at times as the physics package is not the same in all areas.... I thought many "in-house" models were based off the WRF-ARW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 PType line on RGEM looks a tick south in some areas, especially upstate SC - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM hour 30 - 999 slp south east of Cape Fear. Pretty juicy look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Early indications are the GFS is going to come in a little wetter this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 My novice thoughts FWIW, for the upstaters and NC; feel free to agree or disagree : I love the maps by Robert and Brad for the upstate, BUT... -I don't like the timing of this coming into the upstate in the late afternoon. Especially if we get Sun tomorrow, surface temps are going to be a problem for accumulation. Yes rates will overcome soil temps, but 2m temps can eat up a TON of accumulation. Starting as rain will moisten up the ground itself and it will take time for the snow to freeze up the ground enough to accumulate. BL temps are my main concern for big accums in the upstate. March 09 is a perfect example where I had Thunder snow for several hours but never got more than 4.5 inches with temps being 34 the entire time. Places 20 miles North with temps of 31 got a foot! -In thinking back, when I get snow in N Upstate, NC Mtns ALWAYS get more (not less). Some way, some how, whether by ratios, updraft enhancement, or leading precip fingers, they ALWAYS get more, regardless of what is modeled or progged. Now there have been times where neither or us have gotten snow like Dec 89, or the Carolina crusher, but this is a different set up. -Eastern NC usually seems to do better than initially expected, especially when the precip is coming to them overnight instead of in the afternoon, which will be the case with this one. Given all this - I predict 2-5 for N Upstate (Anderson to Simpsonville to Gaffney North). And I think Eastern upstate does better than Western because precip reaches them closer to sunset and is a little more wound up then. Within this area though, someone could def see 10 to 12 or even more if they get under the right bands and who knows where that will be. But most people will not see that much. Trace to 3 for central upstate. Mostly rain to 1 inch in southern upstate. NC Mtns will see 4 to 12 inches based on position and elevation. Central NC will be similar to upstate but a little more; 3-8 inches. NE NC will be impressive with 5-12, possibly more with banding and the higher amounts North. Good luck everyone! May the flakes be with you! Thanks for sharing and thoughts. I believe there will be a good bit of moisture coming in from the Gulf instead of the the Atlantic side for I 85. When Atlanta gets the moisture, we normally get it as well from my experience here. Also, looking at the expected cloud cover, I don't see the sun coming out much tomorrow. I think we will bust to a high around 38 or so. JMHO. thanks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 downeast - I think the precip duration is a limiting factor for a big, big dog....also, I'd like to see the Euro and Euro Ens mean beef up more...they tend to be more conservative with QPF, and more often correct, IMO Maybe the thing is you don't get lows off the NC coast like that and not get tons of throwback, if this was going to be rain nobody would blink twice at 1-2" rainfall predictions on a deepening low off the coast like that.....even if its moving fast its still going to be a 12+ hr event...like HKY pointed out the Euro/GFS/CMC consensus seems to low on WPF given the low strength and track......usually when they got strong lows offshore they produce the goods....I mean I get all giddy just thinking of a 997 sitting 100 miles SE of Lookout that's the dream setup for getting crushed in this area especially if its bombing out as it passes out to the east...... I am thinking 6-8" IMBY is a solid call at this time and if anything is lowballing it.....there are things that can change or screw it up but I think the chances of me seeing a true 12" storm are higher with this one than anything else in forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM has 17-18 mm of snow plus some light sleet at the end for RDU, QPF beefed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS not gonna be far off from the NAM with QPF for RDU...WNC looks golden as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 00z NAM: 8-12 for the Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Local Fox met in HIgh Point (Van Denton) says the snow should start in the Piedmont around 11:30 tomorrow night and be outta here shortly after daybreak. Says to to expect a 4-6" snowfall with only a 15% chance of an 8" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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