GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I agree about the totals. In my mind at least the question is if the nam is right with how much precip falls since pretty much every model is drier than the nam. That said, the good news is there has been a general wetter trend with this on every model and we still have time for the other models to catch up to it Looking at soundings on the gfs and other models in general, i think it will be cold enough since most of the modeling agrees on the level of cold air advection at the surface and aloft. .There appears to be just enough caa tomorrow that whatever falls will probably be mostly frozen along and north of highway 78, while areas down toward i-20/south of atlanta and athens could start off as a mix, it should changeover before ending at least. this is assuming of course there is actually a fair bit of precip falling. As for the second system, the nam is by itself with how cold and how far north the precip is. Which is normally not a good sign. I was too young to remember 1982 so I don't think i can recall having back to back accumulating snows here so if it were to happen it would be really unusual. Yeah, I've been concerned about there being cold enough air aloft for Wed PM. We really need help aloft to bring cold downward. Otoh, I just checked the 850 mb dew points for then and they're WAY below 0C. So, IF significant precip were to somehow come north enough and not too far north to result in too much WAA, there may actually be a pretty decent sized needle hole in which to thread for ATL-AHN corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Just checked the WunderMap forecast and it shows rain showers ending as snow showers in Charleston early Tuesday AM. Interesting. I'm thinking the suppressed solution might benefit us in the Charleston area. You can't really hope for much of a chance for any frozen precipitation living here in the low country, but this week we may have a slim chance to see some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 12 Z GFS is the 3rd one in a row having an additional low form off the SE coast on 2/27 and prevent a 2/28 Gulf/CAD storm. I had earlier thought this had the best potential of the week. I guess I've changed my mind as the two earlier ones look much more promising than 2/28 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yeah, I've been concerned about there being cold enough air aloft for Wed PM. We really need help aloft to bring cold downward. Otoh, I just checked the 850 mb dew points for then and they're WAY below 0C. So, IF significant precip were to somehow come north enough and not too far north to result in too much WAA, there may actually be a pretty decent sized needle hole in which to thread for ATL-AHN corridor. GFS is really keeping that vort juiced at 12z...much like the NAM. If it continues to trend stronger you guys should be good. Like I said on the NAM it seemed really close to closing off and the GFS wasn't too far away from that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Heres last night 0z ukie total precip from Mon a.m. through Wed a,m, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 the 00z UKMET is very close to the NAM scenario early Weds morning at least here. It's just a bit dry. Then it's trying to show something after also. Won't have 12z hi-res data for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 **VALID 12z WED** Ok, lets get down to basics. Lest look at the synoptics here. Tell me if you can see the **BIGGEST** difference and why the NAM is a bit further north. Now please hear my clearly.....I don't know if the NAM is right, but it FITS the trends of winter for the PV to be a bit more "relaxed" ie further north. The NAM, at least is telling me where the GFS/EURO/CMC **COULD** end up. The big 3 globals are not that far off from a HUGE winter storm in the SE. The GFS: The NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z GGEM AT 96 HOURS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Just made a post, check it out. Please like my page if you haven't yet...Video later.. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z GGEM AT 96 HOURS wow, perfect low placement off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z GGEM AT 96 HOURS That looks like a winner for central AL and GA and the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Heres the latest sref wed a.m., I like the GGEM as well, thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z UKMet looks similar to Canadian with the track through hr96, but a little quicker. I think it's reasonable to expect this to climb north some over the next few days...but then temps will come more into question for many unless the 5h wave really stays intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The UKMET still has something Tuesday AM well north of the GFS, it does appear at 72 to be developing the next low too but its not too impressive at 96, hard to tell what track it takes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Heres the latest sref wed a.m., I like the GGEM as well, thanks for posting. What does the thin purple outline of the prec represent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 What does the thin purple outline of the prec represent? 3 inch snow I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 CMC doesn't have much moisture for NC but the overall track is probably right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GEFS looks close to the OP run nice storm signal on it. Probably a little bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GGEM is too warm around these parts with good moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looking at spaghetti plots the GEFS individual members are going to have some big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GGEM is too warm around these parts with good moisture. IF and it's a big IF the 5h energy works the way the NAM and GFS seem to want it to many including you will probably do very well. If it can wrap up you'll get a lot of dynamics that will work in your favor. I wouldn't be concerned with sfc temps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 IF and it's a big IF the 5h energy works the way the NAM and GFS seem to want it to many including you will probably do very well. If it can wrap up you'll get a lot of dynamics that will work in your favor. I wouldn't be concerned with sfc temps right now. I was thinking along these lines. I just wanted to put it out there for anyone around this area expecting big Wintry accumulation maps or anything. I like where this is possibly going. It seems like just a few days ago we were putting everything into the last weekend system, but this Tues-Thur period isn't too far off from the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Also of interest on the Spaghetti plot it looks like quite a number of members turn the corner on the GEFS for Thurs. storm. One at least has a 990mb low off of Hatteras lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Also of interest on the Spaghetti plot it looks like quite a number of members turn the corner on the GEFS for Thurs. storm. One at least has a 990mb low off of Hatteras lol. the latest trends are the exact opposite of last weeks. we had a good look but all the trends and short range models were trending to what we didnt want to see (pulling the low north). now we have a suppressed system on the op, but everything is trending towards a possible big dog. 00z runs tonight will be huge to see if we finally get the op runs to hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I was thinking along these lines. I just wanted to put it out there for anyone around this area expecting big Wintry accumulation maps or anything. I like where this is possibly going. It seems like just a few days ago we were putting everything into the last weekend system, but this Tues-Thur period isn't too far off from the main show. Generally speaking for winter wx in the se anything that can wrong usually does unfortunately. Hope with all these chances we can see something for a lot of us this week. The general set up looks decent but with the models all over the place this winter (even up to a possible event) I am cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Most are talking about wed /thurs storm, with all the excitement , correct? What about the Tues " threat" ? Is nam only one showing that? It really is confusing with 2 threats that close, not even including Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Also of interest on the Spaghetti plot it looks like quite a number of members turn the corner on the GEFS for Thurs. storm. One at least has a 990mb low off of Hatteras lol. I think the 06z GEFS spaghetti had a 990mb low off of Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Most are talking about wed /thurs storm, with all the excitement , correct? What about the Tues " threat" ? Is nam only one showing that? It really is confusing with 2 threats that close, not even including Monday Every model has something Tuesday AM except the GFS, the UKMET went a bit drier this run but my guess is the GFS caves on this eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Remember back in the day when we would be buying a snow shovel based on this look at day 4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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