superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 A great ouuput in WNC. The NAM continues to love the SW NC mountains, Nothern Upstate and southern foothills with heavy rates of snow.. This is a lot better run for the northern foothills/mountains and NW Piedmont, too. The 18z NAM was kind of scant there (0.25-0.5" QPF). Now, GSO is on the cusp of 0.75" QPF, which is solid, and the entire area is 0.50-0.75". CR, I hear you about cutting back on totals, but with this setup, it doesn't seem that far out of the question to see this kind of QPF (maybe it's overdone in that band from RDU northward, though compaction and ratios would mean that's not going to add up 10:1 as snow, anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wake Co is 1.25" QPF, all snow till the very end where it mixes with IP. Anyone worried about temps now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WPC, having the heaviest snowfall forecasts so far, has been tossing the NAM FWIW...good weenie runs but I wonder when it will start to back off the precip if it does? Disco from 4pm: "THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIALLY DECENT DYNAMIC COOLING REGIME FROM NRN GA/ERN TN THROUGH NC/SRN VA AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH. THIS ENTIRE FCST SOUND FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD... HOWEVER A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS WITH THE GUIDANCE. THE CLEAR TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HRS IS A CONTINUE TREND TO THE NORTH WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIP SHIELD. THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN ARE AN ACTUAL CLEAR OVER-AMPLIFIED SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE MORE SUBDUED. WPC BOUGHT THE NORTHWARD TREND BUT REMAINED CONSERVATIVE IN RELYING CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL DUO OF THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGHOUT. THIS MEANS DRAWING SNOW FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATL REGION. THIS FCST REMAINS FLUID ESPECIALLY THURS FOR A REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY WINTER WEATHER INVOLVING AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM... PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ARCTIC AIR." Very reasonable. Now we wait for the GFS to come in and say warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM-12 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No doubt James! Also, heavy rates should limt any rain at the onset... This is a lot better run for the northern foothills/mountains and NW Piedmont, too. The 18z NAM was kind of scant there (0.25-0.5" QPF). No, GSO is on the cusp of 0.75" QPF, which is solid, and the entire area is 0.50-0.75"/ Once again the NAM drops over 1.25 here. It would be nice if the others agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The recent trends are promising, but I'm still holding out to see if they continue. Still slightly worried about temperatures cutting into some of those totals. I'm trying not to chug the huge snow koolaid too much right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sorry for asking but is this the High Res NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WRAL's latest futurecast run. much more in line with guidance than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM-12 snow If the area between N GA and E NC connect with the 8"+ I'd feel a little better. But I can't be picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Now that the amped NAM has scaled back a bit, things are stabilizing more in terms of temperature concerns for CLT to RDU. Looking good for accumulating snow barring a late collapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Regarding whether or not KATL is mainly rain, does anyone recall the great 3/24/1983 snow? KATL got the heaviest snow since 1940. From what I was told by someone in Cobb county, nobody expected it to be snow. It turned out to be a mainly very wet snow with huge flakes. I wasn't in ATL to experience it. Could this end up similar? Opinions? I was a senior in high school here in upstate South Carolina when that storm occurred. One of the things I remember is that it occurred on a Friday and like today's event, we had a little teaser on the Wednesday before. Not saying this event is even close to that one but an interesting coincidence. Huge flakes, got over 10" here while just down the road in Anderson, not a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM-12 snow That is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow! What a run! For once I'm sitting pretty. Nam kills north georgia! I'm nervous though! Great run for Cumming north. I woud like my chances where you are, the NAM is likely still too far north by a bit, its now maybe within 30 miles of the RGEM on NGA snow totals, if the RGEM comes south this gets interesting for N ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM-12 snowEverybody is all giddy about the RAH area on that run, but NGa looks to do amazingly well. Wondering about the sudden cut off into SC and then the strip around RAH!? Is there a transfer or something? Just can't see how it stops like that in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That future cast run is troubling.. a shift NW by about 50 miles and most of Wake gets blanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM-12 snow Very good run for me right above 40 in eastern Burke like how it bands the 40 all the way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM has been consistent with a minimum over mby. Has that same darker blue dot right over me every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That future cast run is troubling.. a shift NW by about 50 miles and most of Wake gets blanked. It shifted snow totals south from the last run. In what way is that troubling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 909 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .UPDATE... BASED ON THE 18Z RUN OF NAM/GFS...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TEMPS COMING IN THE MORNING ACROSS NORTH GA...THEN WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP...LOWERING TEMPS. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT PTYPE. WITH THE COLDER TEMPS...BASED ON TEMPS WET BULBING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIP...HAVE MADE THE TRANSITION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON MOST AREAS IN THE WARNING. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE WARNING WILL STILL HAVE MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That future cast run is troubling.. a shift NW by about 50 miles and most of Wake gets blanked. Future cast is garbage. Last night it had today's event as spotty green rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM trended better for Atlanta IMO...colder. Maybe it's reflecting the colder temps at the moment. Hoping it gets even more colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 doesn't look slower to me, the low is just 1mb stronger and in the same exact location 9z on 2/26 Jon maybe more precip associated? Toggling between 18z and 00z it looked a good 2 hours longer...not much but that is what I meant by slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Bet on the fetch coming into the upstate to light it up tomorrow. NAM has been consistent with a minimum over mby. Has that same darker blue dot right over me every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That future cast run is troubling.. a shift NW by about 50 miles and most of Wake gets blanked.It's not going to shift NW by that much. What happened is their crappy model shifted to what all the other models have been saying all day. We have not had a significant north shift today, if anything, it's been a little bit south at times and weaker, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sorry for asking but is this the High Res NAM? No, its running. Looks similar to the 12km NAM but not as far NW with the .5" QPF in NW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It shifted snow totals south from the last run. In what way is that troubling? I didn't realize it was that sparse on the previous run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That future cast run is troubling.. a shift NW by about 50 miles and most of Wake gets blanked. That "model" really doesn't have a place in this thread. It is far, far less skilled than anything else we use at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Everybody is all giddy about the RAH area on that run, but NGa looks to do amazingly well. Wondering about the sudden cut off into SC and then the strip around RAH!? Is there a transfer or something? Just can't see how it stops like that in GA You've got overrunning and then the coastal takes over. There will be a precip min somewhere. Robert's map shows that. Impossible to say exactly where, but it'll happen. James, I hear what you're saying but I want to see other guidance come in with 1+" amounts. Until there's a consensus there, I think the NAM is too high, as usual. Still, it's a nice hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I woud like my chances where you are, the NAM is likely still too far north by a bit, its now maybe within 30 miles of the RGEM on NGA snow totals, if the RGEM comes south this gets interesting for N ATL it's a touch colder than the 18z run but I still can't help but think the nam is too warm aloft and indeed heavy precip will keep temps from warming aloft as much as it keeps insisting. this run actually drops 850s below 0 initially then by around hour 23 moves them just above 0 again. What is worrisome to me about this is that it does right in the middle of very intense precip rates. In fact the nam is actually showing a little dynamical cooling taking place way to the south over south georgia/southern sc with the blob of heaviest convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM has been consistent with a minimum over mby. Has that same darker blue dot right over me every run. Don't get too caught up in that. Remember the QPF is basically a good guess at where heavy banding will setup. I'm as likely to be in a minimum as you or anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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