Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've picked up another 1/2 inch of snow in the past hour in southern wake! big flakes!!! I think this helps keeps temp cool for tomorrow! It is the missing piece of the puzzle! Unfortunately, it won't help with the mid levels. If you want to see mainly snow, you'd better hope the models hold steady and then keep your fingers crossed...or tick south and you can breathe a bit easier. Another north tick and it's going to be pretty much game over for significant accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 With the exception of the NAM the 850 low appears weak or open enough to me that strong precip rates can overcome its track, the 0C line is close but the other thing I noticed is there is massive room for evaporative cooling in the 800-900-mb layer...the big difference between the NAM and GFS is the NAM has screaming SW flow and WAA from 800-850mb over Ga, the GFS and most other guidance does not, its all 700-780mb where its easily cold enough to stay below 0C. If the NAM is wrong on that 800-850 idea there will be massive busts in south Atlanta. The new GFS cannot be trusted thermally in the 1000-850 layer, its got serious issues being too warm. I see it so much where I am. It almost like you can see the roulette wheel slowing down over head, and the column getting colder, or not, depending on where the marble stops, lol. All my life I've seen lines drawn, when I live in Atl, and down here, but the final placement often comes down to action time. This seems like some good cold, and the battle with the waa, especially if the storm is weaker, will be interesting. I'll be watching Alabama to see what I'm getting, not plumes, and maps Lookouts soundings will be all important now. Poor Atl mets. I've watched 'em bust all my life, 'cause, of course, you remember the busts, lol, but it's a thankless job predicting snow in Ga. because the tolerances are often so tight. And the column does what it wants, not what drawn lines say it has to do. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It hasn't really shifted north, the temps are just be modeled a bit warmer which may or may not be correct. Northern counties in the upstate should be fine. When you say Northern counties, are you talking above 85 or the mountains of South Carolina? Also, I have not been able to look at the models much today but are the 850's getting warmer or the surface? I think the models are running about 4 degrees too warm for this system, as stated above by another Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z NAM would be great...5" of snow and 1" of sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ABC and WRAL say the rain/snow line is right through rdu. Is this true?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 When you say Northern counties, are you talking above 85 or the mountains of South Carolina? Also, I have not been able to look at the models much today but are the 850's getting warmer or the surface? I think the models are running about 4 degrees too warm for this system, as stated above by another Met.I can tell you based on what most everything shows, North of 85 in greenville, pickens, oconee counties gets hammered! Possibly 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looking at the cross section temp profile of the NAM below for KCLT, this goes from rain to snow to maybe rain to snow. 540 is not valuable at all here? Never heard that one before. Tons of research by Keeter et all showing value of partial thickness values vs 1000-500mb thickness values in this area. I have hardly ever used 1000-500mb thickness here in 2 decades of forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ABC and WRAL say the rain/snow line is right through rdu. Is this true?? Some data shows that and some doesn't. It's going to be close. We're going to have to watch the trends tonight and how the storm actually develops tomorrow to know for sure. Still some uncertainty yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NC or SC? Folks generally don't get blasted for observations, as long as they have some modeling or synoptic support. Now if you said "Looks like this one is toast! This sucks!" without at least citing support, you'd be begging for banishment to banter-land. Opinion supported by observation leads to better discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Folks generally don't get blasted for observations, as long as they have some modeling or synoptic support. Now if you said "Looks like this one is toast! This sucks!" without at least citing support, you'd be begging for banishment to banter-land. Opinion supported by observation leads to better discussion. That's the key here. It has about as much synoptic support as you can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Because they are not when I open them. They open as a oversized image so zoomed that I can't even see the entire image. That's what I was asking if they were truly gifs or maybe screen shots of a gif, idk why a gif would not be working when I open it. Sometimes a GIF is just an image, the ones that move are animated GIFs. All is well on your phone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I wouldn't even bother. They are convinced it's going to rain and until they see the snow falling you're just waisting your breath. For some reason the local TV mets seem to think so, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Updated the map. Not many changes, but more so in GA. GA specific map as well. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Based on today's model runs, how does the ATL area look for tomorrow and tomorrow night? I'm too lazy to look through the past several pages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nothing wrong with some legitimate skepticism. This is not a slam dunk for Raleigh or Charlotte, especially if you at all factor in the trends over the last 24 hours. Yay we have a potential snowstorm on our doorstep. But being somewhat skeptical, with good reason, is not any different than being overly optimistic that you're going to get six inches of snow. No reason for anybody to get mad about either view. Just discuss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Updated the map. Not many changes, but more so in GA. GA specific map as well. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Great Map Chris. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Still think all of Metro ATL gets all rain, only far northern burbs have any shot at accumulations. WSI RPM ("futurecast" on TV stations), SREF, NAM, GFS all screw us- and we are now less than 24 hours away. The fat lady has sung. Congrats far north GA, you will get nailed, down here another hose job. Ouch, but I can't help but take the northern trend overall today seriously. I know you tend to be a bit pessimistic (or realistic) but this is looking like a far north GA special (Rome-Gainesville north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z NAM would be great...5" of snow and 1" of sleet... I would take that and run. But, correct me if I'm wrong, that .2(point two) 850 temps might still support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I sure hope the local TV guys are right because a lot of people I've talked to have said, "so and so doesn't think it will be a big deal" "so and so says that it will be more rain and mixed".. People hang their hats on the TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nothing wrong with some legitimate skepticism. This is not a slam dunk for Raleigh or Charlotte, especially if you at all factor in the trends over the last 24 hours. Yay we have a potential snowstorm on our doorstep. But being somewhat skeptical, with good reason, is not any different than being overly optimistic that you're going to get six inches of snow. No reason for anybody to get mad about either view. Just discuss it. Agreed, the QPF jackpot is toeing the line with mid level temps, it's going to be sick gradient tomorrow night with rain/snow, heavy snow v/s light snow all within 30-50 miles of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I remember being right on the edge in 2011...The rain/snow line was around where the Atlanta airport was, I feel like it's going to set up right around the airport again, if not further north(maybe south if 850s are wrong). Still ended up with 5-6 inches from that storm though because of the initial frontogenetic band that centered on downtown Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Larry, if you see this...what's the correlation between the wind speeds. I've got wsw at 9mph during part of the inch of precip. With the 3 meter at 2 from the north, and at 925 I've got 7 from the north east. Does your charting say anything about the optimal cold air feed, and strength opposing the wsw feed of waa and moisture. We've got the track, the wsw feed, cold air, heavy rates expected. Does the speed play big a part on your maps of a typical storm as does the direction? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nothing wrong with some legitimate skepticism. This is not a slam dunk for Raleigh or Charlotte, especially if you at all factor in the trends over the last 24 hours. Yay we have a potential snowstorm on our doorstep. But being somewhat skeptical, with good reason, is not any different than being overly optimistic that you're going to get six inches of snow. No reason for anybody to get mad about either view. Just discuss it. It is almost always marginal temp wise these cold events the last couple of seasons are less common The thing is being near the area where the warm nose is formidable but not out of control is very often the place where the highest snow totals are. 95% of model data is all snow for RDU so I feel things are looking good for the Triangle. I think the NW trends have stopped, the more reasonable bad scenario to me is a flatter scenario with less qpf less dynamics less dynamical cooling and thus the somewhat marginal boundary layer temps take longer to be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 alright folks...enough off topic banter stuff. I'm getting a little tired of deleting posts that have no value whatsoever in regards to this thread. If you want to complain about getting screwed, talk about tv mets, or make jokes..do so in the banter thread and leave this thread to actual model analysis. Otherwise there will be some timeouts coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think we will see this type of gradient, whether it's west of this or east of this....amounts won't be as large though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It seems to me folks north of HWY 64 (NC) are relatively safe with respects to an all snow event. Locations along and south of 64 become trickier but could still be a significant event. That's how I see it. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm assuming there were no major shifts with the GEFS. It's getting out of its useful range. I'm expecting a slight wiggle with the 0z model runs and hopefully we will be locked in with no bad surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This was posted December 24th 2010.... Looking at soundings for RDU, it is too warm at 18z for any snow Saturday afternoon but the profile cools quickly so snow will be supported by 00z Sunday. The issue therafter is saturation is decreasing rapidly as you head into the next several hours and it may switch back over to rain if this were to occur. All of our good storms are borderline and most good storms it seems to be the same concern but the majority of the time synoptics win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It is almost always marginal temp wise these cold events the last couple of seasons are less common The thing is being near the area where the warm nose is formidable but not out of control is very often the place where the highest snow totals are. 95% of model data is all snow for RDU so I feel things are looking good for the Triangle. I think the NW trends have stopped, the more reasonable bad scenario to me is a flatter scenario with less qpf less dynamics less dynamical cooling and thus the somewhat marginal boundary layer temps take longer to be overcome. Thanks for posting this. That helps frame some of my concerns in the right context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Our local ch 4 met still has a swath of 4-7" basically about 25 miles either side of 85! The radar he showed had the finger of rain streaking ahead of the storm and near or east of ATL by around noon and here by 5 as rain! I think BL temps will matter, if we get to high of 47 as forecast , that will be a problem. Get clouds in here early and drop some temps tonight, and we will be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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