superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The 18z RGEM shows the deformation band in the NC Piedmont really well. That will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I had the same question - ours reads 2 - 4 for Wednesday and then 2 - 4 for Wednesday night... SERIOUSLY? Even better - nothing "supposed" to start until 10:00 am - really not feeling sending the kids to school with 4 - 8" of snow possible... this place shuts down with 1/2" of snow... :| Really wish the schools would just bite the bullet and close proactively tomorrow. It's not like we've got a high risk of additional snow days after this event is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 See, this is what I'm referring to. Seems to be a shift from the thinking earlier today, at least from what the models are generally showing. Sounding like a rain event turning to a sloppy snow event for a shorter duration before ending. This was evident even yesterday with the thickness values being above 540 in some models. For example, the 540 lines is not even in NC at the height of the storm according to the NAM. My 5-7 snow accumulation was if it was all snow, but that is clearly not going to happen. Should have stuck with my inch or two forecast from 2 days ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 RAH Briefing for tomorrow night's event just posted ... PDF file... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/briefing/LatestBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Lookout, GB says his RPM model says you are hosed oh and me too.He shows only one inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The 18z RGEM shows the deformation band in the NC Piedmont really well. That will have to be watched. Tell how does this compare temp-wise/precip-wise to the 12z, James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just a heads up...the RPM model is usually horrible, it's just a marketing tool and I believe it just runs off the Hi-Res NAM with a few tweaks...those tweaks tend to make it bad. I would guess it is seeing the thickness the NAM is and not properly accounting for cooling. Either way moisture moves in by 7pm if by 10pm we're turning to snow we might loose an inch. I'm not worried. This is the best look we've had in a long time. There will be surprises, winners and losers. We won't know until it starts falling. If GA overperforms early then it's going to be good for us. Something that I always look at are recent trends. The last few storms have trended wetter and SFC temps have been cooler than models predicted even 24 hours out due to the cold air hanging around longer. That has to account for something here. I doubt many of us break 40 tomorrow. Just a non scientific guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z NAM and Hi-Res NAM way down on precip for NW NC. Here's the Hi-Res. Similar decreases on regular NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Actually at 5pm yesterday they said that there would be an 80% chance that RDU would get at least 1" of snow. I'd say that's pretty spot on given that this was a dry snow w/ high ratios. I missed the 5pm news but caught the 5:30 and 6:00pm and thought they were very vague. The call was for up to a trace but they cautioned if the track was more north it could be more and to watch Jennifer Gardner this morning for up to date information. As far as whatever their call is for Thursday, I don't care. If they think it'll be mostly rain w/ a transition to snow at the end, that's fine w/ me. I've looked at the models myself and think something else. That's the good thing about the weather...The question will be answered. So until then, I wish everyone luck on their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Tell how does this compare temp-wise/precip-wise to the 12z, James? Colder with a little less precip. The track and everything looks close enough to have a hard time differentiating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Brad P's updated map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Watch up: NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-076-077-251030-/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0004.150225T2300Z-150226T1700Z//O.EXT.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150225T1700Z/PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-LEE-HARNETT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON438 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ESTWEDNESDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ESTWEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAYEVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...TRIANGLE...NORTHERN PIEDMONT...AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING OF RESIDUAL SNOW ON AREA ROADS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILLRESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AVOID TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE.IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN...LEAVE PLENTY OF FOLLOWINGDISTANCE AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION...PARTICULARLY ATINTERSECTIONS AND HIGHWAY ONRAMPS AND OFFRAMPS WHERE ACCIDENTS AREMOST LIKELY.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION. STAY TUNED TO LATERFORECASTS AND PREPARE FOR SEVERE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVYSNOW ACCUMULATION.$$VINCENT/JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm not calling bs on their forecast either just wondering what they see vs all the discussion and some really good intel on this forum, some from solid mets. Is that in-house model some holy grail of magical forecasting? Some TV Mets seem to hang their hat on it. Its in the same ballpark as look at us, we have the best superduper doppler 9000 around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Colder with a little less precip. The track and everything looks close enough to have a hard time differentiating. Thanks. Colder is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Gradient is going to set up over I-20 in the ATL metro.. County on big numbers north side of the metro, little to nothing on the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 RAH Briefing for tomorrow night's event just posted ... PDF file... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/briefing/LatestBriefing.pdf "Potential exists for this to be a major winter storm in terms of snow accumulation, should the more pessimistic models verify." I smiled @ that. Pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is what I said earlier this morning and got blasted for it. I think we see more rain than anything in Wake County. This one has bust written all over it. Probably why NWS is hesitant to issue a WSWatch. and may retract it tomorrow. You and your homeboy Fishel need to go pitch a tent together Wed night and take your little umbrellas with you too. Seriously, I can't believe you'd listen to anything out of that clowns mouth, he's about as bad as DT but on the other side of the fence. WRAL should be sued for public endangerment, what a joke that station is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 18Z RGEM really upping the precip amts back toward C TN/N AL as the comma head develops. Good sign there that the s/w is holding tight with a cutoff ull longer. The better this develops, the farther west the heavier precip will build back as it moves up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I suppose the mets on WRAL are hugging their in-house model. Seems kind of odd, given that their model is vastly different than all the others. No others show rain being an issue in RDU. Edit: I'm a big fan of Fishel, though, so I'm not automatically dismissing him. But I have to say I'm baffled at their stance on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Brad P.s latest... Here is my latest snowfall forecast, one wide and one close in to hit as many people as possible. This is going to be an evolving event so expect some tweaks and changes over the next 24 hours. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #snOMG Like · · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18Z RGEM really upping the precip amts back toward C TN/N AL as the comma head develops. Good sign there that the s/w is holding tight with a cutoff ull longer. The better this develops, the farther west the precip will build back as it moves up. I don't have it yet, does it close off or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Warning up here... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA333 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAYTHROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY...GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>038-041>049-052>055-057-250645-/O.UPG.KFFC.WS.A.0003.150225T1500Z-150226T1200Z//O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0004.150225T1500Z-150226T1500Z/DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HENRY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY333 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AMEST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO10 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWNAN TO COVINGTON TO ATHENS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WARNING AREA.* TIMING...10 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG WITH NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SLICK ROADWAYS AND MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.* VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DURING SOME OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE DAY TO NEAR FREEZING AS SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I don't have it yet, does it close off or no? Closed off (albeit barely) over C TN valid 0z 2/26. That's the first time it's shown this. Thus, the precip building back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I don't get the obsession w/ the sref. It's an ensemble of NAM members. Everyone know's how extreme the NAM and other various hi-res sr models can be. One member showing wound up SLP will throw off the entire precip type forecast mean. Therefore these snow avgs are highly unreliable on it. Good point. I always throw out the high extremes and let the mean readjust to get a more reasonable comfort level with what will likely occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Gradient is going to set up over I-20 in the ATL metro.. County on big numbers north side of the metro, little to nothing on the south side. At quick glance it appears the RGEM is slightly south with the snow gradient there this run, it may not be as tight but it appears to show more oranges during the afternoon and further south with the snow in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The 18z GFS ticked a little further NW, FWIW. 4-5" into RDU now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I suppose the mets on WRAL are hugging their in-house model. Seems kind of odd, given that their model is vastly different than all the others. No others show rain being an issue in RDU. It's marketing 101. In a crowded field you differentiate yourself somehow. The RPM "in house model" is an easy way to do that. So they run with it...if it works they can tout their accuracy. If it isn't they just say "new information is coming in right now". Either way it's not a big deal for them. During these storms their ratings spike and that's all they care about.....by the way not saying the mets their lead this charge it's just most news orgs in general. I would imagine for a lot of TV mets ego probably plays a role so some might gamble on a more extreme scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I wouldn't Fishel bash too much just yet. The NWS shares some of his concerns and they're pretty smart people. Let's try not to weenie too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 They just went with 2-4" for me Wed night on top of 1-3" Wed afternoon. Interesting that their WSW has metro ATL as 2-4" and that was posted about the same time. Looks like a much higher top end potential in the point forecast. I think we also established that we reside fairly close to one another; but you're area is clearly on a different grid for FFC. Interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 welp...ATL friends...not good this run of the gfs and the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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