SnowNiner Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I honestly dont think we'll have a good handle on accumulations until we see how much we warm tomorrow. If it gets out of hand, we're in trouble. If the snow from today keeps temps down, we could be in for an even better show. Agree completely. I'm hoping with stay in the 30s. We get into the mid 40s, that's a long way to go down and alot of wasted qpf. I'm thinking 3 wet inches in CLT with the roads generally slushy during the peak. Thursday afternoon they're probably fine. I'll be very pleasantly surprised if we get more than that/colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Does it matter if it is bright and sunny but still cold? The snow is hanging around longer today than expected. It will be colder tonight than expected, so it probably won't get that warm tomorrow. I guess what I mean is that this is a light dry snow. Most of it on the roads has melted in my area. Tomorrow w/ the late Feb sun, I assume the rest of the snow will melt. What does the temp right now have to do with the temps during a dynamic winter storm 30 hours later. Didn't DC and Nashville have rain last week after getting to 0 degrees a day or two before? I just think this is how we bust everytime we think temps are fine even though they will be borderline at best during the event. If temps are getting above freezing tomorrow, what to say the system will start as snow at 9 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 There should be a finger of snow/precip that extends well out ahead of the main system. the nam and gfs have it cutting across north ga and sc. Gfs/nam seem to allow precip to reach the ground with this feature from shortly after 15z in the west to 18z in sc. This feature should help keep surface temps from warming too much tomorrow, especially if it starts sooner. Depending on how cold it gets tonight, those under this might not get much above the mid 30s...which obviously would be huge as it would take much less to drop surface temps and get accumulations...as opposed to prior runs showing temps into the 40s. agreed...and looking at the vis, we might have some clearer skies for a time tonight. maybe a PC to MC vs dense overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Fishel just posted on Facebook he is not convinced everything that falls will be snow and not everything will stick. Good, if he thinks we mix then he must be buying a closer SLP track thus higher QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rizzoads Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Regarding Fishel and the rest of the WRAL crew..... Last night at 10 on Fox50 and at 11 on WRAL, all they had to say was that we might see some flurries this morning. They completely failed to mention any possibility of 7-8 hours of light to moderate snow and 2 inches on the ground. Even though we on this forum knew it was going to be more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I don't have a lot of opinion on the SREF because I didn't start paying any attention to it until last winter, but it was on point with the storm last Fab Feb and last week's storm, outperforming most other modelling locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 not sure what to say that hasnt been said. i have 2" of powder outside right now. pretty sure there wont be an issue w/ snow sticking. and rdu is fine temp wise. I just watched News14 with their in house model showing a lot of rain with the line on/west of the Triangle. She mentioned not to get too caught up in that, but the model sure looked like a lot of heavy rain with a little snow on NW edge. Not what we're reading here and what NWS is saying. Couple this with the juxtaposition of call maps (Van's for ex.) and then to read Fishel's remarks is bewildering Can't any scientist nail this down better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 One of you fellas help me out here: Am I to interpret this as a 2-6" storm total? Reads that way: From FFC: WednesdayRain and snow likely before 3pm, then rain between 3pm and 4pm, then rain and snow after 4pm. High near 37. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday NightSnow, mainly before 1am. Low around 31. East wind around 5 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 There should be a finger of snow/precip that extends well out ahead of the main system. the nam and gfs have it cutting across north ga and sc. Gfs/nam seem to allow precip to reach the ground with this feature from shortly after 15z in the west to 18z in sc. This feature should help keep surface temps from warming too much tomorrow, especially if it starts sooner. Depending on how cold it gets tonight, those under this might not get much above the mid 30s...which obviously would be huge as it would take much less to drop surface temps and get accumulations...as opposed to prior runs showing temps into the 40s. RAP simulated radar sees it as well.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I mean...there HAS to be a reason Fishel is going so low. and it isn't just for fun. I think he is concerned with temperatures struggling to get to freezing in the wake county area and how that is going to impact accumulation and/or type The above freezing surface layer is shallow and should cool easily. Having some snow on the ground will help. I was worried about that yesterday. Not so much today. I am more worried about temps aloft melting the snow. Maybe that's what his concern is. We still have some amped up solutions that bring that line precariously close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Anybody got any updated snow totals from the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 One of you fellas help me out here: Am I to interpret this as a 2-6" storm total? Reads that way: From FFC: WednesdayRain and snow likely before 3pm, then rain between 3pm and 4pm, then rain and snow after 4pm. High near 37. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday NightSnow, mainly before 1am. Low around 31. East wind around 5 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Yep, up to 6" of snow. And FFC says the forecast may end up busting. So maybe you will get 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Regarding Fishel and the rest of the WRAL crew..... Last night at 10 on Fox50 and at 11 on WRAL, all they had to say was that we might see some flurries this morning. They completely failed to mention any possibility of 7-8 hours of light to moderate snow and 2 inches on the ground. Even though we on this forum knew it was going to be more significant. Actually at 5pm, they posted an article stating there is an 80% chance of 1" of snow in the Triangle by Tuesday afternoon. I'd say that's pretty spot on when dealing w/ a dry snow with high ratios. http://www.wral.com/triangle-expected-to-receive-1-2-punch-of-snow-this-week/14465363/#xq0dPQktbAbQK0ox.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Lookout, GB says his RPM model says you are hosed oh and me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WRAL just showed their "futurecast" and it showed literally all of nc outside of the mtns as rain until 10pm where it would change to a mix then a change to snow for central nc at 4am. this must be what they are hanging on. even the amped sref doesn't show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 im thinking about the same. light snow transitioning to mod/hvy overnight. 4-6" Yeah, I think that's about right. I do believe there will be a transition period from rn to sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 So, just watched the WRAL weathercast and they were perfectly ambiguously vague. Their Futurecast model also showed no snow except for the far NW piedmont and had a mix briefly into the Triangle, with mostly rain and some snow at the end. Mike Maze said it would be track dependent. But nothing they said or showed would indicate that a major snowstorm was on the way with any appreciable accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WRAL just showed their "futurecast" and it showed literally all of nc outside of the mtns as rain until 10pm where it would change to a mix then a change to snow for central nc at 4am. this must be what they are hanging on. even the amped sref doesn't show that. See, this is what I'm referring to. Seems to be a shift from the thinking earlier today, at least from what the models are generally showing. Sounding like a rain event turning to a sloppy snow event for a shorter duration before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yep, up to 6" of snow. And FFC says the forecast may end up busting. So maybe you will get 10" Or the rain washes it away as it falls Put on your rubber boots, it's a crap shoot in Ga. again T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WRAL just showed their "futurecast" and it showed literally all of nc outside of the mtns as rain until 10pm where it would change to a mix then a change to snow for central nc at 4am. this must be what they are hanging on. even the amped sref doesn't show that. Ha, I just responded to your post and said I thought this would start as rain but I don't see it taking until 4am to transition to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WRAL just showed their "futurecast" and it showed literally all of nc outside of the mtns as rain until 10pm where it would change to a mix then a change to snow for central nc at 4am. this must be what they are hanging on. even the amped sref doesn't show that. Great point. Today's event was different and shouldn't have a tremendous impact on the next storm. This one started as snow after full night of tremendous cooling. The next event will start at 9 PM after a full complement of late Feb sunshine in NC. Smart move for WRAL, not to jump on the bandwagon. Even if they have "egg on their faces" right now. They were pretty much right with this event. The main issue was that it occurred right around rush hour, and temps were COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yep, up to 6" of snow. And FFC says the forecast may end up busting. So maybe you will get 10" They just went with 2-4" for me Wed night on top of 1-3" Wed afternoon. Interesting that their WSW has metro ATL as 2-4" and that was posted about the same time. Looks like a much higher top end potential in the point forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ha, I just responded to your post and said I thought this would start as rain but I don't see it taking until 4am to transition to snow. just watched again and it really never brings the rn/snow line to raleigh, keeps it to the nw of us. i dont buy it at all. havent seen one model run show that over the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is what I said earlier this morning and got blasted for it. I think we see more rain than anything in Wake County. This one has bust written all over it. Probably why NWS is hesitant to issue a WSWatch. and may retract it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Great point. Today's event was different and shouldn't have a tremendous impact on the next storm. This one started as snow after full night of tremendous cooling. The next even will start at 9 PM after a full complement of late Feb sunshine in NC. Smart move for WRAL, not to jump on the bandwagon. Even if they have "egg on their faces" right now. They were pretty much right with this event. The main issue was that it occurred right around rush hour, and temps were COLD. they were dead wrong with this event, they have been apologizing all day for getting it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm not calling bs on their forecast either just wondering what they see vs all the discussion and some really good intel on this forum, some from solid mets. Is that in-house model some holy grail of magical forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yep, up to 6" of snow. And FFC says the forecast may end up busting. So maybe you will get 10" I had the same question - ours reads 2 - 4 for Wednesday and then 2 - 4 for Wednesday night... SERIOUSLY? Even better - nothing "supposed" to start until 10:00 am - really not feeling sending the kids to school with 4 - 8" of snow possible... this place shuts down with 1/2" of snow... :| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Those temps tomorrow are the key to this. If they get in the mid 40's, I think we see mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Evidently people are bombarding Brad with questions about it b/c he just posted, "Can I kindly ask people to stop asking me about other people's forecasts" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 they were dead wrong with this event, they have been apologizing all day for getting it wrong. Actually at 5pm yesterday they said that there would be an 80% chance that RDU would get at least 1" of snow. I'd say that's pretty spot on given that this was a dry snow w/ high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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