griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I appreciate everyone being more specific with locations and dates since there are so many events/threats. What is RDU looking like this week? Looks like a chance of cold chasing moisture for Monday... and then something later? This will show you the NAM run...other models are on there too - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015022212&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The NAM is believable for Tuesday AM since its not in its clown range, the 78-84 hour deal is likely overamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 THe euro was really close to a hit for NC on Thursday morning. A large swath of precip slides just south of us. Now that this looks like a legit s/w /w the timing, the only thing preventing this from being a big snowstorm is the 500mb low sitting over New England. That is blunting this storm from turning the corner. If that is able to trend a little quicker, that HP over the Dakotas slides down and the trough axis allowed to get a little more neutral/negative. This one should be interesting to track. The EURO was actually showing cold enough upper levels for snow in ATL for this one, however the sfc is too warm. Areas on the northern cusp would be snow as is (north of AHN to CAE). I was just about to talk about the EPS...the storm slowed significantly on the EPS and comparing the maps on 12z Thursday, the 00z had the storm exiting already, where now on the 00z there's a decent wedge over the Carolinas on the mean with a suppressed low off the coast of SC...so while it is much more south and east of the mean low of the 00z along the coast, more cold appears to be in place and if it does actually get going like you're saying, I like the look. 12z yesterday 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The RGEM has something at 48 but its definitely more suppressed than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The RGEM has something at 48 but its definitely more suppressed than the NAM It'll be interesting to see how much further north precip makes it on Tuesday compared to what models are showing good or bad. That will be very telling for later in the week IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Here's the 12z NAM simulated radar at hour 84. You can tell it's trying to turn the corner and precip should be then moving into towards NC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150222+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 this is the NAM 500 Vort map at HR84 This is the 06Z GFS at HR90 The GFS has a general Bias of flattening the Northern stream to much at this range. Notice the differences there between the NAM and GFS there. They are not too far off from eachother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 and it would still be snowing pretty hard at 84. Besides the fact this is the fantasy 84 hour nam which is about as reliable as flipping a coin, the fact it's so cold is interesting since the runs of the euro that had the system this far north kept 0c 850s well north of this run of the nam. There is a very fine needle to thread here since if it trends very much north at all, it's likely all rain outside the mountains..except in nc where there is more wiggle room. personally, i'm much more interested in tomorrow nights/tue system since it's not in the fantasy range. Lookout, At the very least if one even considers these two fantasies for N GA, I think it is wise to cut these totals in half based on past performance of this very wet biased model in these situations. Even so, it would still be giving ~1-2" on TUE AM and perhaps ~4-6" on WED PM. So, perhaps 5-8" total for much of N GA IF these two fantasies were to somehow verify with cut down qpf. The bad thing is that cold enough air is marginal at best and the very unreliable NAM is different from the GFS/Euro. OTOH , climo of very cold Feb.'s in N GA is actually quite favorable for significant 1-2 events based on what has actually occurred since the late 1800's. In addition, Niño's (especially weaker not so dry ones) have had a bit of a tendency to get something really nice in Feb, especially late in the month. Regarding getting two snows 36 hours apart, there is actually some precedent for that kind of thing in ATL. 1982's snowjam is one example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Lookout, At the very least if one even considers these two fantasies for N GA, I think it is wise to cut these totals in half based on past performance of this very wet biased model in these situations. Even so, it would still be giving ~1-2" on TUE AM and perhaps ~4-6" on WED PM. So, perhaps 5-8" total for much of N GA IF these two fantasies were to somehow verify with cut down qpf. The bad thing is that cold enough air is marginal at best and the very unreliable NAM is different from the GFS/Euro. OTOH , climo of very cold Feb.'s in N GA is actually quite favorable for significant 1-2 events based on what has actually occurred since the late 1800's. In addition, Niño's (especially weaker not so dry ones) have had a bit of a tendency to get something really nice in Feb, especially late in the month. Regarding getting two snows 36 hours apart, there is actually some precedent for that kind of thing in ATL. 1982's snowjam is one example. or if somehow the NAM is right, which isn't likely, we could see widespread foot amounts in ATL and vicinity, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Can't believe we're even discussing the 84 hour NAM. Might as well discuss the DGEX while we're at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GFS looks a little better with the energy in the west WRT it's orientation but probably not going to mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 or if somehow the NAM is right, which isn't likely, we could see widespread foot amounts in ATL and vicinity, I'd VERY gladly take 5-8" (250-400% of climo and a pretty rare occurrence) and say it turned out to be a great winter after all though heavily backloaded. Don't forget the very impressive ZR just experienced in especially NE GA, too. I'm not about to raise expectations to 12" when that is extremely unlikely based on climo back to 1877 and is based on the qpf happy NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 @60 on the 12z GFS you can see where it's taking a step vs. the 6z in the right direction. Still not looking as good as the NAM but it's a step which is all we need at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Lets not forget how horrible the NAM was on temps into NE. GA especially with the last storm. Might be colder for many in the Southern areas (IF the Tues/Weds threat happens). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Kids where out of school all 5 days last week [pres day Mon). We had to camcel church this a.m. because the 150 yard hill up to the parking lot is packed still solid with ice. Can't scrap it it's been so rock hard. 40 right now and you can see the cold coming back down through the Midwest and TN valley. This will fill back into the SE overnight.But I want to draw everyone's attention to current radar. Look at all the precip over TX and Oklahoma. If you use the accuweather precip type it's all snow along and above the red river and moving east. That's all headed toward the SE and should be fun n games in the 24 to 40 hour period for a few back yards. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/weather-radar?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Monday still looks good for some parts of NC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Good step at 5h on the GFS. More of a neutral tilt vs 6z for the Thurs. storm. This run will probably still be suppressed but again it took a step towards the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Lookout, At the very least if one even considers these two fantasies for N GA, I think it is wise to cut these totals in half based on past performance of this very wet biased model in these situations. Even so, it would still be giving ~1-2" on TUE AM and perhaps ~4-6" on WED PM. So, perhaps 5-8" total for much of N GA IF these two fantasies were to somehow verify with cut down qpf. The bad thing is that cold enough air is marginal at best and the very unreliable NAM is different from the GFS/Euro. OTOH , climo of very cold Feb.'s in N GA is actually quite favorable for significant 1-2 events based on what has actually occurred since the late 1800's. In addition, Niño's (especially weaker ones) have had a bit of a tendency to get something really nice in Feb, especially late in the month. Regarding getting two snows 36 hours apart, there is actually some precedent for that kind of thing in ATL. 1982's snowjam is one example. I agree about the totals. In my mind at least the question is if the nam is right with how much precip falls since pretty much every model is drier than the nam. That said, the good news is there has been a general wetter trend with this on every model and we still have time for the other models to catch up to it Looking at soundings on the gfs and other models in general, i think it will be cold enough since most of the modeling agrees on the level of cold air advection at the surface and aloft. .There appears to be just enough caa tomorrow that whatever falls will probably be mostly frozen along and north of highway 78, while areas down toward i-20/south of atlanta and athens could start off as a mix, it should changeover before ending at least. this is assuming of course there is actually a fair bit of precip falling. As for the second system, the nam is by itself with how cold and how far north the precip is. Which is normally not a good sign. I was too young to remember 1982 so I don't think i can recall having back to back accumulating snows here so if it were to happen it would be really unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Monday still looks good for some parts of NC Sent from my iPhone yep, gfs still has rain to snow for central/eastern nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 @75 GFS is trying. Low in the gulf. Energy over TX looks a lot better vs. 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The GFS is now the only model showing squat in the 42-54 hour range, every single other model has precip over AL/GA/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I'd VERY gladly take 5-8" (250-400% of climo and a pretty rare occurrence) and say it turned out to be a great winter after all though heavily backloaded. Don't forget the very impressive ZR just experienced in especially NE GA, too. I'm not about to raise expectations to 12" when that is extremely unlikely based on climo back to 1877 and is based on the qpf happy NAM. honestly, I would take an inch of snow and call it a decent winter. Of course I'd love a lot of snow, but all I've seen so far is some flurries ( not including the snow I saw in KY). At this point, this late in the season, we have to pretty much take what we can get. Just hoping we don't get completely shut out this week. That would definitely make this a horrible, horrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 yep, gfs still has rain to snow for central/eastern nc. what is your opinion on accumulations for Monday? And will it be colder than modeled?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The GFS is now the only model showing squat in the 42-54 hour range, every single other model has precip over AL/GA/SC Watch it be the one to verify. Hopefully it starts tending towards the other models with the 18Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 @60 on the 12z GFS you can see where it's taking a step vs. the 6z in the right direction. Still not looking as good as the NAM but it's a step which is all we need at this point. pretty big differences between the two for alabama/georgia/sc considering we are withing 36 to 42 hours of the next potential event. the rgem is sort of between the two showing at least some light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Nice big step on the GFS. Out to 87....doesn't get it done but I'm now very curious to see the GEFS I'll bet we will see some really big ones on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 4km 12z NAM giving most of us some snow to talk about on Tuesday afternoon/night. Here are the panels courtesy of Wxbell from ATL and then centered on CLT. ATL: CLT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 what is your opinion on accumulations for Monday? And will it be colder than modeled? Sent from my iPhone minimal accums, trace at most. if nc sees an hour or so of snow showers ill consider it a win. and looks like gfs slightly north with precip thru 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 honestly, I would take an inch of snow and call it a decent winter. Of course I'd love a lot of snow, but all I've seen so far is some flurries ( not including the snow I saw in KY). At this point, this late in the season, we have to pretty much take what we can get. Just hoping we don't get completely shut out this week. That would definitely make this a horrible, horrible winter. I agree with your statement. I would be happy with an inch or two to go ahead and close out Winter. I wouldn't necessarily call it a good Winter by any means, but I can tolerate it based on November 1st and another small event. The SREF is slowly ticking up around these parts with Wintry weather I see. Aren't the SREF PLUMES/SREF as a whole heavily influenced by the NAM anyway? So is it very good to use in a situation like this? I remember when it shifted North with the low track for the last storm around the Southeast, everything else followed it immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Just checked the WunderMap forecast and it shows rain showers ending as snow showers in Charleston early Tuesday AM. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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