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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Tend to agree.  I don't look at it either.  It's like it has all of these whacked out members that come together into a mean that, if it ends up being correct, it's for the wrong reasons.

totally agree here. I've often looked at its QPF just hours before an event and think how can there be this much spread in this short of a lead time. Its mean QPF is often useful though. My rule is to cut it by a third.

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Tend to agree. I don't look at it either. It's like it has all of these whacked out members that come together into a mean that, if it ends up being correct, it's for the wrong reasons.

it's good when you look at them individually. There is usually two camps on them and when you get within 24 hours they get pretty close. It's been gsp favorite model for years.
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Well, the SREF is either a genius model or out to lunch. Looks like it did bump snowfall totals back up here with some ridiculous QPF. Looks like the mean is 7" with most members evenly distributed between 2-12".

I guess they don't mean anything but the plumes for MWK are up to 9  I have no idea if they are useful? Some says yes, and some says no?

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Winter Storm Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

343 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST

GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TRACK QUICKLY

EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME

TIME...COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IS

EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES AND

THE TEMPERATURE COOLS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW IS LIKELY TO

BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS BY THE AREA. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL

MOVE EAST AND TAPER OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES

OFFSHORE. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF WHERE THE DIVISION

BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SITUATED WHICH COULD BE SOMEWHERE

OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE

SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE. THEREFORE...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS

IN EFFECT FOR ELBERT...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-

068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>010-012>014-250445-

/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0003.150225T2300Z-150226T1100Z/

/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0004.150225T2100Z-150226T1200Z/

RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-

DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-

ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-

HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-

CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-

MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-

GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-

PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-

GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-

ANDERSON-LAURENS-CHESTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...

MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...

ROYSTON...LAVONIA...FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL...

REED CREEK...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...CROSSNORE...

SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...

STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...

HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...

WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...

NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...

SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...

HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...SHELBY...

KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...

KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...TRINITY...

WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...NINE TIMES...PUMPKINTOWN...

ROCKY BOTTOM...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...GOWENSVILLE...

MARIETTA...TIGERVILLE...SENECA...EASLEY...CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...

TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...

GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION...

CHESTER...GREAT FALLS

343 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM

WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...FOR MOST OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST

GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE.

* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW ON HIGHWAYS THAT WILL CAUSE

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST

GEORGIA...THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE

SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA

EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE 3 TO 6 INCHES

ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST

GEORGIA WITH AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST

MOUNTAINS.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW ON HIGHWAYS.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 30 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH

MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

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I honestly dont think we'll have a good handle on accumulations until we see how much we warm tomorrow. If it gets out of hand, we're in trouble. If the snow from today keeps temps down, we could be in for an even better show.

It has been discussed to death how the temps tomorrow won't be that big of a deal. The soil temp was already right at freezing before today's snow. And temps will crash when the precip starts. And it is not going to be that warm tomorrow anyway.

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I don't get the obsession w/ the sref. It's an ensemble of NAM members. Everyone know's how extreme the NAM and other various hi-res sr models can be.  One member showing wound up SLP will throw off the entire precip type forecast mean. Therefore these snow avgs are highly unreliable on it.

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Just went under WSW!!!

 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
  MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CLOSE TO THE BORDER OF THE TWO
  STATES.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
  HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND LOWER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
  INTO VIRGINIA.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE EVENING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
  MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS SNOW INCREASES
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 

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Tend to agree.  I don't look at it either.  It's like it has all of these whacked out members that come together into a mean that, if it ends up being correct, it's for the wrong reasons.

exactly.  I don't bother looking at them myself unless i'm just really bored and want something to look at for that very reason. Hasn't stopped people from obsessively posting it. In fact, i don't think i've ever seen the sref mentioned this much. Which is sort of odd to me considering how it arrives at it's end result.

I don't get the obsession w/ the sref. It's an ensemble of NAM members. Everyone know's how extreme the NAM and other various hi-res sr models can be.  One member showing wound up SLP will throw off the entire precip type forecast mean. Therefore these snow avgs are highly unreliable on it.

Bingo. I just don't get it.

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Fishel just posted on Facebook he is not convinced everything that falls will be snow and not everything will stick.

 There should be a finger of snow/precip that extends well out ahead of the main system. the nam and gfs have it cutting across north ga and sc. Gfs/nam seem to allow precip to reach the ground with this feature from shortly after 15z in the west to 18z in sc. This feature should help keep surface temps from warming too much tomorrow, especially if it starts sooner. Depending on how cold it gets tonight, those under this might not get much above the mid 30s...which obviously would be huge as it would take much less to drop surface temps and get accumulations...as opposed to prior runs showing temps into the 40s.

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Gotta loved FFC's opening line in their latest AFD. Sums it up nicely I think...

HIGHLY BUSTABLE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT

MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO KEEP CONFIDENCE SLOWLY

IMPROVING. BIGGEST UNKNOWN RIGHT NOW REMAINS THE THERMAL PROFILES

ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH WILL DRIVE PRECIPITATION

TYPES AND THE TRANSITIONS BETWEEN THEM. MODELS ARE ALL PUSHING THE

THERMAL PROFILES INTO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME

ACROSS ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA AND I DO BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING BETWEEN VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW/RAIN. HOWEVER

STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SNOWFALL RATES HIGH

ENOUGH FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW

DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND EVEN WHEN THE

PRECIPITATION IS MIXED. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA

FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING

OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. BASED ON

TEMPERATURES FROM THE HI-REZ MODELS WE END UP GENERATING SNOWFALL

TOTALS REACHING WARNING LEVELS ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA WITH A

STEEP GRADIENT TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.

THEREFORE WE HAVE CHOSEN TO UPGRADE THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA TO A

WINTER STORM WARNING...AND NOT ADD ANY COUNTIES ON THE SOUTH EDGE AS

EITHER AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. INTERESTS SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA

NEED TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR ANY

CHANGES.

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