Snow haven Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm on the line it looks like, rain or snow that it still the big question for me! Meanwhile we got 2" of snow here today currently sitting at 27 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 nam going to be another crush job for rdu... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 RAH AFD... 3:00PM THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND IT'S PROXIMITY TO THE NC COAST WILL LARGELY IMPACT THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS. REGARDLESS...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AN AXIS FROM NEAR SANFORD TO RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS WITH 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE VA BORDER ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. OTHER UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE P-TYPE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL TO FREEZING. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. ACROSS THE SOUTH THE LOW WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT OF P-TYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...HOWEVER THE EXACT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION AND P-TYPES IN THE SOUTH ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST BUT THE SNOW THREAT SHOULD ABATE QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY RAIN WHICH COULD FALL AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY PRECIPITATION MAY REDEVELOP IN THE NW DURING THE DAY AS HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Per GSP AFD: USED THE COLDER NAM TO GENERATE TEMPS/SFC WETBULBS FOR WED NIGHT ANDSTAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC QPF. HOWEVER...BUMPED QPF UPWARDS IN THE SWMOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WED NIGHT SHOULD PRODCUE HIGHER AMOUNTS.OTHERWISE...USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FORECAST FIELDS. THE QUESTIONOF QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS IS A BIG PLAYER IN SNOWACCUMS. BASED ON SURFACE WET BULBS...IT LOOKS INITIALLY ALONG ANDSOUTH OF I-85 PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WHICH WILL USE UP SOMEQPF. HENCE...SNOWFALL ACCUMS WILL FALL OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH THERAIN/SNOW LINE MOST LIKELY SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THESOUTHERN FRINGS OF NE GA AND THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE...FROM ELBERTCOUNTY GA EAST THROUGH ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES. THE SREFPLUMES CATCH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OUTSIDE THEMOUTAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85 WHERE 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS THEMEAN FORECAST. THE PLUMES INDICATE THAT ACTUALLY THE SW MOUNTAINSMAY ACHIEVE THE MOST SNOW OF 6-8 INCHES WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE BASEDON UPSLOPE. THE WPC WWD PAINTS A SWATH OF 4-6 INCH SNOW FROM THEGA MOUNTAINS EASTWARD THROUGH CLT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS GENERAL IDEAWITH SNOW GRIDS... EXCEPT WENT HIGHER IN THE SW MOUNTAINS (6-8INCHES SOME AREAS). 12Z MODEL QPF HAS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENTWITH THE GFS NOW WETTER BUT STILL NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE NAM. THEUPSHOT IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST TO GO AHEAD AND PULL THETRIGGER ON A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNINGWED LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIESOF ELBERT...ABBEVILLE...GREENWOOD WHERE WILL A WINTER STORM WATCHWILL BE MAINTAINED AS RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE IN VICINITY. GSP issuing a warning for most of it's areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 sref mean for rdu only ~3.5", but seeing as it has .3" for a mean today and i have 2" not sure i buy it. total qpf is ~1.3" Wetter snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 man rdu getting smoked at 37hr. another big run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Low is southwest compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 New call map is up online. Thanks everyone for the kind words and please continue to like and share my page! Yall rock!! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Thanks Delta! Looks like a logical map to me. 3-6 makes more sense than the general 4-8 just because I think most people don't see quite as much since this is such a fast mover. Somebody will see higher amounts though, maybe over a foot or more in isolated spots, but I don't expect most people will see anywhere near that much. Heavy snows tend to pack down and these ULL precip bands are like t-storms, a couple a miles away may get twice as much as you. Still, looks good for a lot of us at this point. For everyone hoping for more QPF (including me), it's too bad this thing is wanting to get out so quickly. Imagine if it were moving at just half the speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Damn good run for us Charlotte guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nam is identical to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not to mention back west on 74. Love the .5-.75 hugging that location Damn good run for us Charlotte guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This looks too far NW with the low's track, which per the other models' consensus is to across the FL panhandle to near Brunswick to a little offshore SAV. What do others think about the chance for a FL panhandle to Brunswickish track? I don't think it's been nailed down yet and any jumping in or out of the fire is premature If I was guessing I'd put it mostly over Fla. but going by models has proven to be fools play more than once, lol. Still, I'm betting on a tick south, and keeping it in Fla until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I really really dislike the trend in the SREF plumes- now at ATL most members 0". GNV now only 2" mean, was 5" Not good, getting more and convinced the north trend is very real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 FFC just ramped up my daytime totals in my point forecast. Doesn't include Wed night or Thursday: Wednesday Rain and snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 37. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I really really dislike the trend in the SREF plumes- now at ATL most members 0". GNV now only 2" mean, was 5" Not good, getting more and convinced the north trend is very real. dont worry, temps initialized way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I really really dislike the trend in the SREF plumes- now at ATL most members 0". GNV now only 2" mean, was 5" Not good, getting more and convinced the north trend is very real. The SREF is junk, it gets skewed by members that are overly amped, I have not bothered even looking at it beyond just pure curiosity for 3 years...I'd feel pretty good north of ATL right now, in ATL its most likely game over but you never know when its this tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM came south with 850 line in North GA, ever so slightly. I'm sure snow maps will reflect a tick south in North GA vs 12Z run. I think we are starting to get a better Idea WRT RN/SN line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM came south with 850 line in North GA, ever so slightly. I'm sure snow maps will reflect a tick south in North GA vs 12Z run. I think we are starting to get a better Idea WRT RN/SN line.I think everyone above the perimeter is good. might mix with sleet but will have the best rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nam is identical to the 12z run. Yeah in the end it looked basically the same. The 850 line looked positioned exactly the same across the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The only thing I dont like is we dont get 100% saturation up to -15C on the CLT sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREF is junk, it gets skewed by members that are overly amped, I have not bothered even looking at it beyond just pure curiosity for 3 years...I'd feel pretty good north of ATL right now, in ATL its most likely game over but you never know when its this tight. I'm starting to believe the SREF is useless in events such as these...has there been any case studies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Does it really matter what the temp is now, if tomorrow will be bright and sunny for most of the day in RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NWS RAH says winter storm watched issued soon their afternoon discussion says 2-4 inches with 6 possible in pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Only comfort here is that the Nwest trend stopped. We're back to the "PLEASE just dip 25-30 miles south and we're golden" mode in the Sandhills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREF is junk, it gets skewed by members that are overly amped, I have not bothered even looking at it beyond just pure curiosity for 3 years...I'd feel pretty good north of ATL right now, in ATL its most likely game over but you never know when its this tight. Thanks for the info. It's gonna be rough as the line will likely set up somewhere near Atlanta, be it downtown or up at the northern end of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WRAL says there is a chance for someone in our area to get some snow wednesday night after starting as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm starting to believe the SREF is useless in events such as these...has there been any case studies? I never look at it myself. The nam being the nam came in between 1.25 and 1.0 qpf for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA333 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAYTHROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY...GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>038-041>049-052>055-057-250645-/O.UPG.KFFC.WS.A.0003.150225T1500Z-150226T1200Z//O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0004.150225T1500Z-150226T1500Z/DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HENRY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY333 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AMEST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO10 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWNAN TO COVINGTON TO ATHENS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WARNING AREA.* TIMING...10 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ALONG WITH NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SLICK ROADWAYS AND MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.* VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DURING SOME OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOW RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE DAY TO NEAR FREEZING AS SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREF is junk, it gets skewed by members that are overly amped, I have not bothered even looking at it beyond just pure curiosity for 3 years...I'd feel pretty good north of ATL right now, in ATL its most likely game over but you never know when its this tight. Tend to agree. I don't look at it either. It's like it has all of these whacked out members that come together into a mean that, if it ends up being correct, it's for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm starting to believe the SREF is useless in events such as these...has there been any case studies? It's just fun to look at the plumes. I know last year it was wrong for mby. It does make me a pause and think about the mean qpf being significantly more than the globals though. The 2nd lowest qpf member of the SREF matched up with the globals qpf wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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