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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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After looking and I mean fast at 12z guidance thanks to scrambling here at work today. I'm going 6 to 10 across my county. It's pretty big land wise and the jackpot should run sw to ne somewhere across it. Kudos to ukie, can't say that enough. Also well below freezing today and still flurrying. If the clouds will hang in there today and get back in here quick we'd a.m. we should be set for one of the best snowfalls we've seen in several years. Good luck to everyone.

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After looking and I mean fast at 12z guidance thanks to scrambling here at work today. I'm going 6 to 10 across my county. It's pretty big land wise and the jackpot should run sw to ne somewhere across it. Kudos to ukie, can't say that enough. Also well below freezing today and still flurrying. If the clouds will hang in there today and get back in here quick we'd a.m. we should be set for one of the best snowfalls we've seen in several years. Good luck to everyone.

kind of weird the NWS hasnt even issued a Winter Storm watch yet

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Was Greenville still in the 4-8" zone from him?

 

The I-85 corridor, believe it or not, is right in the middle of the heaviest snowfall map. He showed 4 to 6 inches, but said there could be locally heavier amounts. And also said that thunder snow would not be out of the question.

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Elizabeth Gardner on WRAL just said, "we are still watching the potential for winter weather tomorrow night" and that is literally all she said about it...    

 

Why should she say more at this point?  If she says 5-7 inches and raleigh gets 2-3, she gets ripped.  If she says 2-4 and raleigh gets 6+ she gets ripped.  Theres too much instability and too many questions for her to throw more out.

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At this point you just hope the warming trend continues and it makes their forecast much easier, if the NAM is right the even Rome and Dahlonega are struggling to see any snow, thats probably overdone but I could see the RGEM forecast ultimately shifting another 30-40 miles which would safely take much of the area out of snow.

 

Thankfully my sounding in Dahlonega on the 12z NAM stays all snow...but barely.  Also thankful that it is the warmest.

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At this point you just hope the warming trend continues and it makes their forecast much easier, if the NAM is right the even Rome and Dahlonega are struggling to see any snow, thats probably overdone but I could see the RGEM forecast ultimately shifting another 30-40 miles which would safely take much of the area out of snow.

Hopefully not, still will be close unless guidance somehow can go colder the next 24..

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your gonna get nailed! How is the snow making going this year?

 

Not good.  Need lots of low DP nights and that was few and far between until mid Feb.  We did get one good session in back in January and made this ridiculous snow pile that my son turned into a cave.

 

Feeling good about tomorrow up here.  Got 2" today and not one bit has melted.  Crazy finish to this winter.  What did you get today?

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At this point you just hope the warming trend continues and it makes their forecast much easier, if the NAM is right the even Rome and Dahlonega are struggling to see any snow, thats probably overdone but I could see the RGEM forecast ultimately shifting another 30-40 miles which would safely take much of the area out of snow.

i think that might be a bit extreme. I would be very surprised if areas along and north of a line from cartersville to gainesville to near anderson ever switch over. Plus that would be a fairly large jump for the rgem considering we are only 24 away from the low organizing in the gulf. But Lets say for arguments sake the nam is right...it still shows a near isothermal layer most of the storm for these areas..but also it's precip is so heavy/convective,  that i think it would delay or completely prevent a changeover for areas along where the transition line is shown to be be...in other words the 85 corridor. 

 

I wouldn't want to make the official call with this storm either though.  I hope they will hit home the fact that just 25 miles could mean the difference between a 6 plus inch snow and very little. If they don't make folks understand how this could play out they are going to catch hell no matter what happens.

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Thinking a lot of the snowfall maps are based on how much precip, if any, starts out as a cold rain. If it's all snow, you get the higher estimates. I'm currently sitting at 29 degrees. Forecasted high was 36. Will be interesting how low we get tonight and how much cloud cover tomorrow leading up to the main event.

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i think that might be a bit extreme. I would be very surprised if areas along and north of a line from cartersville to gainesville to near anderson ever switch over. Plus that would be a fairly large jump for the rgem considering we are only 24 away from the low organizing in the gulf. But Lets say for arguments sake the nam is right...it still shows a near isothermal layer most of the storm for these areas..but also it's precip is so heavy/convective,  that i think it would delay or completely prevent a changeover for areas along where the transition line is shown to be be...in other words the 85 corridor. 

 

I wouldn't want to make the official call with this storm either though.  I hope they will hit home the fact that just 25 miles could mean the difference between a 6 plus inch snow and very little. If they don't make folks understand how this could play out they are going to catch hell no matter what happens.

I like where I sit despite a near meltdown this morning.  We tend to stay colder than expected in these types of events so I expect that translate to this one.  It has something to do with the way the foothills poke down through Cherokee, Bartow, and into Paulding that keeps the rain/snow line less of a straight line.  

 

Also, last I checked we are 30 and not melting so that can only help tomorrow.

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Thinking a lot of the snowfall maps are based on how much precip, if any, starts out as a cold rain. If it's all snow, you get the higher estimates. I'm currently sitting at 29 degrees. Forecasted high was 36. Will be interesting how low we get tonight and how much cloud cover tomorrow leading up to the main event.

My forcasted high was 37. They've dropped that to 33 now. I'm sitting at 26

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Not good. Need lots of low DP nights and that was few and far between until mid Feb. We did get one good session in back in January and made this ridiculous snow pile that my son turned into a cave.

Feeling good about tomorrow up here. Got 2" today and not one bit has melted. Crazy finish to this winter. What did you get today?

we got 4. It just stopped snowing a few minutes ago and the sun came out. Believe it or not up to 33 now.

What model are you leaning towards, or which blend?

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i think that might be a bit extreme. I would be very surprised if areas along and north of a line from cartersville to gainesville to near anderson ever switch over. Plus that would be a fairly large jump for the rgem considering we are only 24 away from the low organizing in the gulf. But Lets say for arguments sake the nam is right...it still shows a near isothermal layer most of the storm for these areas..but also it's precip is so heavy/convective,  that i think it would delay or completely prevent a changeover for areas along where the transition line is shown to be be...in other words the 85 corridor. 

 

I wouldn't want to make the official call with this storm either though.  I hope they will hit home the fact that just 25 miles could mean the difference between a 6 plus inch snow and very little. If they don't make folks understand how this could play out they are going to catch hell no matter what happens.

Nice point.  

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