NCSNOW Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 After looking and I mean fast at 12z guidance thanks to scrambling here at work today. I'm going 6 to 10 across my county. It's pretty big land wise and the jackpot should run sw to ne somewhere across it. Kudos to ukie, can't say that enough. Also well below freezing today and still flurrying. If the clouds will hang in there today and get back in here quick we'd a.m. we should be set for one of the best snowfalls we've seen in several years. Good luck to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like there is a chance that NC could have measurable snow in every county. That has to be a pretty rare event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Divine Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 After looking and I mean fast at 12z guidance thanks to scrambling here at work today. I'm going 6 to 10 across my county. It's pretty big land wise and the jackpot should run sw to ne somewhere across it. Kudos to ukie, can't say that enough. Also well below freezing today and still flurrying. If the clouds will hang in there today and get back in here quick we'd a.m. we should be set for one of the best snowfalls we've seen in several years. Good luck to everyone. kind of weird the NWS hasnt even issued a Winter Storm watch yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Snow outlook from WPC/75th percentile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Elizabeth Gardner on WRAL just said, "we are still watching the potential for winter weather tomorrow night" and that is literally all she said about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 No, CLT and then SE NC would do better than us, CLT gets clipped by the over-running really good and we just miss out on the coastal. This is probably what Brad P. showed. Looks like RAH is being conservative, as usual. No Watch out yet, either... Surely, they issue one with this afternoon's package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Was Greenville still in the 4-8" zone from him? The I-85 corridor, believe it or not, is right in the middle of the heaviest snowfall map. He showed 4 to 6 inches, but said there could be locally heavier amounts. And also said that thunder snow would not be out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Divine Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like RAH is being conservative, as usual. No Watch out yet, either... Surely, they issue one with this afternoon's package? You figure they would have too if its even a good possibility that much snow will fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Elizabeth Gardner on WRAL just said, "we are still watching the potential for winter weather tomorrow night" and that is literally all she said about it... Why should she say more at this point? If she says 5-7 inches and raleigh gets 2-3, she gets ripped. If she says 2-4 and raleigh gets 6+ she gets ripped. Theres too much instability and too many questions for her to throw more out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Divine Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Charlotte area already has a Winter Storm Watch, Raleigh and the Triad will soon follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 kind of weird the NWS hasnt even issued a Winter Storm watch yet They will with afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I hope we don't get sleeted in the Piedmont... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At this point you just hope the warming trend continues and it makes their forecast much easier, if the NAM is right the even Rome and Dahlonega are struggling to see any snow, thats probably overdone but I could see the RGEM forecast ultimately shifting another 30-40 miles which would safely take much of the area out of snow. Thankfully my sounding in Dahlonega on the 12z NAM stays all snow...but barely. Also thankful that it is the warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 We have TV mets here? :-) I about choked on my lunch...hahahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Navgem is a blend of the sref and rgem Ukie is up there withas them. It's really pointless to use globals now anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Was Greenville still in the 4-8" zone from him? 4-6"+, now. 2-4" closer to Greenwood He does a very nice segment on WYFF! Comprehensive for local TV. He's still talking up the potential for enough instability for Thundersnow in W SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At this point you just hope the warming trend continues and it makes their forecast much easier, if the NAM is right the even Rome and Dahlonega are struggling to see any snow, thats probably overdone but I could see the RGEM forecast ultimately shifting another 30-40 miles which would safely take much of the area out of snow. Hopefully not, still will be close unless guidance somehow can go colder the next 24.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 4-6"+, now. 2-4" closer to Greenwood He does a very nice segment on WYFF! Comprehensive for local TV. He's still talking up the potential for enough instability for Thundersnow in W SC/NC. Yes, he's very 'Andy Woodish lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thankfully my sounding in Dahlonega on the 12z NAM stays all snow...but barely. Also thankful that it is the warmest.your gonna get nailed! How is the snow making going this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 your gonna get nailed! How is the snow making going this year? Not good. Need lots of low DP nights and that was few and far between until mid Feb. We did get one good session in back in January and made this ridiculous snow pile that my son turned into a cave. Feeling good about tomorrow up here. Got 2" today and not one bit has melted. Crazy finish to this winter. What did you get today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At this point you just hope the warming trend continues and it makes their forecast much easier, if the NAM is right the even Rome and Dahlonega are struggling to see any snow, thats probably overdone but I could see the RGEM forecast ultimately shifting another 30-40 miles which would safely take much of the area out of snow. i think that might be a bit extreme. I would be very surprised if areas along and north of a line from cartersville to gainesville to near anderson ever switch over. Plus that would be a fairly large jump for the rgem considering we are only 24 away from the low organizing in the gulf. But Lets say for arguments sake the nam is right...it still shows a near isothermal layer most of the storm for these areas..but also it's precip is so heavy/convective, that i think it would delay or completely prevent a changeover for areas along where the transition line is shown to be be...in other words the 85 corridor. I wouldn't want to make the official call with this storm either though. I hope they will hit home the fact that just 25 miles could mean the difference between a 6 plus inch snow and very little. If they don't make folks understand how this could play out they are going to catch hell no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisr4419 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thinking a lot of the snowfall maps are based on how much precip, if any, starts out as a cold rain. If it's all snow, you get the higher estimates. I'm currently sitting at 29 degrees. Forecasted high was 36. Will be interesting how low we get tonight and how much cloud cover tomorrow leading up to the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 i think that might be a bit extreme. I would be very surprised if areas along and north of a line from cartersville to gainesville to near anderson ever switch over. Plus that would be a fairly large jump for the rgem considering we are only 24 away from the low organizing in the gulf. But Lets say for arguments sake the nam is right...it still shows a near isothermal layer most of the storm for these areas..but also it's precip is so heavy/convective, that i think it would delay or completely prevent a changeover for areas along where the transition line is shown to be be...in other words the 85 corridor. I wouldn't want to make the official call with this storm either though. I hope they will hit home the fact that just 25 miles could mean the difference between a 6 plus inch snow and very little. If they don't make folks understand how this could play out they are going to catch hell no matter what happens. I like where I sit despite a near meltdown this morning. We tend to stay colder than expected in these types of events so I expect that translate to this one. It has something to do with the way the foothills poke down through Cherokee, Bartow, and into Paulding that keeps the rain/snow line less of a straight line. Also, last I checked we are 30 and not melting so that can only help tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thinking a lot of the snowfall maps are based on how much precip, if any, starts out as a cold rain. If it's all snow, you get the higher estimates. I'm currently sitting at 29 degrees. Forecasted high was 36. Will be interesting how low we get tonight and how much cloud cover tomorrow leading up to the main event. My forcasted high was 37. They've dropped that to 33 now. I'm sitting at 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not good. Need lots of low DP nights and that was few and far between until mid Feb. We did get one good session in back in January and made this ridiculous snow pile that my son turned into a cave. Feeling good about tomorrow up here. Got 2" today and not one bit has melted. Crazy finish to this winter. What did you get today? we got 4. It just stopped snowing a few minutes ago and the sun came out. Believe it or not up to 33 now.What model are you leaning towards, or which blend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 i think that might be a bit extreme. I would be very surprised if areas along and north of a line from cartersville to gainesville to near anderson ever switch over. Plus that would be a fairly large jump for the rgem considering we are only 24 away from the low organizing in the gulf. But Lets say for arguments sake the nam is right...it still shows a near isothermal layer most of the storm for these areas..but also it's precip is so heavy/convective, that i think it would delay or completely prevent a changeover for areas along where the transition line is shown to be be...in other words the 85 corridor. I wouldn't want to make the official call with this storm either though. I hope they will hit home the fact that just 25 miles could mean the difference between a 6 plus inch snow and very little. If they don't make folks understand how this could play out they are going to catch hell no matter what happens. Nice point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 50th percentile snowfall from WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 When's the next model update? Around 3-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nice point. They're gonna catch hell either way. People are ignorant. They see one snowcast that shows their area possibly getting 8 inches and that's what they expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 When's the next model update? Around 3-4? Euro is coming out right now. Then the NAM around 3, RGEM at 4, GFS at 5, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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